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WRAPUP 1-NZ rising jobless, tight fiscal plans cool rate pressure
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WRAPUP 1-NZ rising jobless, tight fiscal plans cool rate pressure
Reuters - Thursday, February 3
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* NZ jobless rate unexpectedly rises
* Interest rate hike track pushed back again
* Tight fiscal policy to ease rates, currency
* NZ dollar falls, debt rises
By Gyles Beckford and Mantik Kusjanto
WELLINGTON, Feb 3 - New Zealand's government will slash spending and borrowing to help keep interest rates low and weaken its rising currency, the finance minister said, as a surprise jump in unemployment threw up yet another hurdle to its sputtering economic recovery.
"We believe that a tighter fiscal track will lead to lower interest rates and lower exchange rate," Bill English told Reuters in an interview on Thursday.
Data earlier in the day showed the economy shed 11,000 jobs in the fourth quarter, sending unemployment up to 6.8 percent from 6.4 percent in the previous quarter.
Analysts said it would have topped 7 percent if the workforce had not shrunk, compared with the OECB average of 8.6 percent. Economists polled by Reuters and the RBNZ had forecast a 6.4 percent rate.
The dissapointing jobs figures suggest policymakers will likely stay the course in efforts to boost economic growth, prompting investors to set back expectations for the timing and magnitude of interest rate rises this year.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has held its key interest rate at 3.0 percent since September last year as the economy has struggled to pick up momentum and households and businesses cut spending. Unlike many other developed nations, the economy has shown few signs of gaining traction in recent months.
"The labour market's weaker than the Reserve Bank anticipated and there's no need to increase interest rates anytime soon. We're still picking a September hike," said Westpac senior economist Dominick Stephens.
The New Zealand dollar shed around half a cent to a low of $0.7720 before paring its losses to stand at $0.7730. It has rallied about 10 percent in the last year, threatening to add to the economy's woes by weighing on export competiveness.
Interest rate futures <0#NBB:> rose as much as eight points, and the short term swaps fell as markets pushed back the timing for the resumption of rate rises by the RBNZ.
The often-volatile jobs data came after a slew of recent weak economic indicators, including soft retail sales and building activities, although recent surveys have shown improving hiring plans.
NO RATE RISES SOON
The main drag in employment came from a 2.8 percent drop in part-time employment, overshadowing a 0.3 percent rise in full-time job growth.
The jobless rate has swung wildly between 6 percent and 6.9 percent over the past year, although analysts suspect some of the volatility is due to statistical anomalies.
The RBNZ has said interest rates will remain low until the recovery gains momentum, but with a steady stream of disappointing numbers analysts have been pushing back the timing of that tightening, with the consensus now settling on September from the previous pick of July.
Market assumptions about the extent of monetary tightening over the next 12 months fell to 57 basis points from 68 bps. It has fluctuated between 48 and 70 bps over the past month.
New Zealand's growth is expected to gradually pick up pace later this year, helped by the rebuilding of the Canterbury region after last year's earthquake and by spending for the Rugby World Cup.
Surveys last month by the NZ Institute of Economic Research and the National Bank of NZ have shown businesses were expecting to hire more staff.
TIGHT PURSE STRINGS
Finance Minister English said moving back into budget surplus by 2014/15 as pledged by the prime minister last week would be a challenge, but was attainable as long as the economy picked up the pace.
He said keeping a tight rein on spending and reducing borrowing would help to support low interest rates and activity.
"We'd hope to arrest the growth in the stock of debt...we want it to peak earlier and lower," he said.
English said he expected government borrowing to slow after the budget, usually in May, and hoped a return to surplus sooner would also keep the lid on debt.
New Zealand has struggled with anaemic growth since emerging from its longest recession in 30 years in 2009, and the economy unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter last year, raising the prospect of a double-dip recession, which English said he hoped would be avoided.
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