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Firmer won, earnings draw funds back to S.Korea
Reuters - Monday, May 4
* Foreign investors have returned to Seoul since March
* Drawn by recent surge in won and sound corporate results
* Pace of purchases may ease but buying momentum to persist For more stories on Asia fund inflows [ID:nTP126890]
By Jungyoun Park and Seo Eun-kyung
SEOUL, May 4 - Foreign investors are once again lapping up South Korean stocks and bonds following a recovery in the local currency as well as on hopes for strong corporate results, and are likely to stay net buyers in the near term.
They have been net buyers of Korean stocks for seven straight weeks, their longest weekly buying streak since March 2005, Korea Exchange data for the week ended April 24 showed.
"One of the main reasons for foreign buying this year is that they had oversold Seoul stocks for the past four years, bringing down their ownership in South Korean stocks significantly from a peak in 2004," said Jang Huh, a managing director and head of equities at Prudential Asset Management Co, Ltd in Seoul.
The main KOSPI stock index <.KS11> is up 24 percent so far in 2009 after plunging 41 percent last year. Foreign investors' ownership of the stock market has fallen from a peak of 44 percent in 2004 to 27.3 percent as of April 30.
Foreign investors were net sellers in annual terms from 2005 to 2008, selling a total of 72.1 trillion won, according to data from the Korea Exchange.
But things have turned around this year and foreigners have bought a net 4.7 trillion won of Seoul shares so far in 2009.
A chief reason for the attraction is that the won has stabilised and has gained about a quarter after hitting an 11-year low in early March.
"Growing strength in the won means growing value of overall Korean shares in dollar terms," said Jang.
The won traded at 1,273 to the dollar on Monday. Citibank Korea forecasts a year-end won-dollar rate of 1,250 won.
"The prospect of a steady, gradual strengthening in the won should continue to fuel foreign appetite in South Korean stocks," said Kim Hag-ju, managing director at Samsung Securities.
South Korean companies' resilience in the face of the global downturn has also been a draw for foreign investors. The country's flagship technology and auto industries have, in large part, outperformed their global peers.
Hyundai Motor <005380.KS> has gained share in the United States and other developed markets with smaller, cheaper vehicles, while Samsung Electronics <005930.KS> saw its mobile profit margins overtake those of market leader Nokia <NOK1V.HE>.
Some analysts said the intensity of foreign buying may ease.
Jang of Prudential Asset said it is premature to proclaim the inflow of foreign money into Seoul stocks will continue at its current fast pace, as foreign investors may simply be trying to buy a piece of South Korea while it is going strong.
"We expect foreign buying to slow down somewhat," said Kim Young-chan, an equities division director at Shinhan BNP Paribas Asset Management Co. "What we need are clear indicators pointing to improvements in the fundamentals of global economics."
Still, overseas buying is seen continuing at least through the year.
"Foreigners cannot afford not to buy Korean shares, especially as the economy is on an upward trend," said Kim at Samsung Securities, adding that key Korean industries have shown an ability to yield higher returns in economic up-cycles.
BONDS FAVOURED TOO
Expectations that South Korean bonds could join a global bond index as early as June have been drumming up foreign money into South Korean bond markets. Foreign investors have amassed some 10 trillion won worth of South Korean futures contracts on three-year government debt since mid-March.
South Korea last week passed a bill that would exempt foreign investors from tax on interest income and capital gains relating to their holdings of South Korean debt. The bill will make it possible for Korean bonds to be included in Citigroup's benchmark World Government Bond Index.
Market participants and government officials expect the inclusion in the global bond index to bring in $10-$40 billion in investments from around the world.
"The WGBI hopes are effectively quelling concerns over possible oversupply from the government's record issuance plan," said Yang Jin-mo, a fixed-income analyst at SK Securities.
In the spot market, foreign investors have bought a net 5.8 trillion won in South Korean debt so far this year, holding about 36 trillion won worth of bonds. The South Korean bond market is worth about 1,000 trillion won.
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