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Edition: U.S. Article Comments (0) Global Technology Summit Facebook looks at China Competition gets ugly in hot mobile games market Google, Apple not unassailable in smartphone race Verizon eyes family data plans European start-ups shy away from IPO frenzy Venture funds look beyond social media Alcatel CEO looks to future growth SAP sees growth from new businesses NXP says demand for NFC chips to soar Video: LivingSocial's Tim O'Shaughnessy on company growth Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read Israel's Netanyahu rejects Obama proposal on borders | 4:44pm EDT Famed pro wrestler "Macho Man" dies in crash 2:45pm EDT Media zoom in on mystery Schwarzenegger mistress | 18 May 2011 Sony hacked again 3:14pm EDT Spain government rethinks ban as youth protests grow 4:19pm EDT Discussed 104 Texas county official says ”stupid” feds sparked fire 101 Obama and Netanyahu face tense meeting on Mideast 81 Israel-Palestinian violence erupts on three borders Watched End of the world as we know it...on May 21 Wed, May 18 2011 Arnold Schwarzenegger's mystery woman identified Thu, May 19 2011 Netanyahu rejects Obama proposal Sat, May 21 2011 small business The top 100 business minds What does the head of Al Jazeera and comedian Conan O'Brien have in common? They're two of the world's 100 most creative business people, according to Fast Company magazine. See who else made the list. Full Article VC funds look beyond social media Can a Navy SEAL help your business? Bad weather is big business for startup Research in Motion stock: the next PALM? Tweet Share this By Angela Moon NEW YORK (Reuters) - Some investors are betting Research in Motion's stock is in for more pain, even after a rough three years. Shares of the BlackBerry maker have lost more than 38 percent since February. Investor attempts to pick a... Email Print Related News Wall Street slips on euro zone, spillover effect feared 4:47pm EDT Wall Street hits resistance; LinkedIn soars in debut Thu, May 19 2011 Wall Street snaps losing streak, but headwinds remain Wed, May 18 2011 Nasdaq leads Wall St lower on economic worry Mon, May 16 2011 Wall Street's second weekly fall raises fear of retreat Fri, May 13 2011 Analysis & Opinion Are investors nuts for LinkedIn? BSE Auto index falls 1 pct Related Topics Technology » Media » A man speaks on a BlackBerry mobile phone inside a shop in Kolkata January 31, 2011. Credit: Reuters/Rupak De Chowdhuri By Angela Moon NEW YORK | Fri May 20, 2011 3:19pm EDT NEW YORK (Reuters) - Some investors are betting Research in Motion's stock is in for more pain, even after a rough three years. Shares of the BlackBerry maker have lost more than 38 percent since February. Investor attempts to pick a bottom in the stock have been run over by a slide dating from June 2008, when it peaked at $148 a share. Some in the options market don't see the trend arresting itself, making long-term bearish bets that RIM shares will fall to the mid-$30s by January 2012. "There is a major divergence of opinion on the stock," said Bret Jensen, chief investment strategist at Simplified Asset Management, a hedge fund based in Miami, Florida. "While some argue that it's somewhat like Apple before the big comeback, considering the cash flow and the attractive P/E ratio, others are asking, 'is this going to be the new Palm?'" Palm was another high-flying maker of handheld computers, whose shares have since lost most of their value. RIM has been disappointing investors in recent months. Sales and earnings forecasts have been cut. Its BlackBerry smartphone lineup has steadily lost market share, especially in the hyper-competitive U.S. market, to devices such as Apple's iPhone and those running Google's Android software. Since early March, shares have struggled to hold above their 10-day moving average, seen as buffering against further losses. The stock fell 1.1 percent at $43.74 on Friday. Short interest is currently at a five-month high at 6 percent of the outstanding float, according to Nasdaq. But a Thomson Reuters StarMine analysis puts the stock's intrinsic value at $99.44, assuming a 10-year cumulative annual growth rate of 7.3 percent, lower than the industry average. The stock's trajectory since February is ugly. Since hitting a 52-week high of $70.54, the pattern has been: Drop sharply, attempt a rebound, and get whacked again. More disturbingly, volume has ticked up of late as the share slide has picked up speed. For the stock to turn around, it would need to rally and sustain gains at what technical strategists call a "gap" in its price -- the sharp decline that occurred in late April from the mid-50s to the $40s. "The bottom of that gap is at the $50 area, so the stock would need to rally sharply from current levels just to begin that process," said Bryant McCormick, an independent quantitative analyst at optionMonster.com. THE BEARISH BUTTERFLY EFFECT Earlier this week, RIM recalled some of its Playbook tablet computers due to an operating system flaw. The company had hoped the launch of the long-awaited tablet could revive its fortunes, but the product garnered poor reviews and complaints it had been rushed out before it was ready. Due to the recall, RIM's Nasdaq-listed shares fell as low as $42.61, just 9 cents above an August 2010 trough. On the same day, an options trader bought 3,500 puts at the January 2012 $40 strike for an average premium of $3.77 each, sold 7,000 puts at the January 2012 $37.5 strike at an average premium of $2.83, and picked up 3,500 puts at the January $35 strike for an average premium of $2.10 each. The strategy, known as a bearish put butterfly spread, implies an average breakeven share price of $39.79 by expiration in January. Maximum profits will be made if RIM shares plunge nearly 15 percent from the current price to settle at $37.50 at expiration, according to Caitlin Duffy, options analyst at Interactive Brokers Group. A butterfly put spread involves a bet shares will fall, but only to a specific level. One profits by selling puts at a strike price that is between purchases at strike prices on each side, or the "wings" of the butterfly. "Butterfly spreads on the stock suggest some options players expect RIM's losing streak to continue into next year," she said. (Additional reporting by Doris Frankel in Chicago; Editing by Andrew Hay) Technology Media Related Quotes and News Company Price Related News Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints We welcome comments that advance the story directly or with relevant tangential information. We try to block comments that use offensive language, all capital letters or appear to be spam, and we review comments frequently to ensure they meet our standards. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. Comments (0) Be the first to comment on reuters.com. Add yours using the box above. Social Stream (What's this?) © Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters Editorial Editions: Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom United States Reuters Contact Us Advertise With Us Help Journalism Handbook Archive Site Index Video Index Reader Feedback Mobile Newsletters RSS Podcasts Widgets Your View Analyst Research Thomson Reuters Copyright Disclaimer Privacy Professional Products Professional Products Support Financial Products About Thomson Reuters Careers Online Products Acquisitions Monthly Buyouts Venture Capital Journal International Financing Review Project Finance International PEhub.com PE Week FindLaw Super Lawyers Attorney Rating Service Reuters on Facebook Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. 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