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S.Korea inflation jump boosts Feb rate rise chance
Reuters - 33 minutes ago
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* Jan inflation, manufacturing input prices both jump
* Record Jan exports underpin sustained economic growth
* Traders lift bets on rate increase as early as next week
* President Lee says oil products sales tax may be cut
By Kim Yeonhee and Yoo Choonsik
SEOUL, Feb 1 - South Korean consumer inflation in January spiked more than expected above the central bank's target range as prices rose across the board, increasing the chances of a back-to-back interest rate rise next week.
Purchasing managers at South Korean manufacturing firms reported input prices rising by their fastest monthly pace in nearly two years in January, a private-sector survey showed, indicating consumer inflation could quicken even further.
But analysts said they were retaining their rate expectations for the entire year. The median forecast in the latest Reuters poll last month was for the central bank to raise the policy rate three more times in 2011 in addition to January's hike.
"...What is more alarming is the rise in prices of industrial goods and services, which will heighten inflation expectations," said Kim Jong Su, economist at NH Investment & Securities.
"There is a high possibility the BOK will hike base rates next week because there is strong pressure on the government to control inflation."
President Lee Myung-bak told a televised joint interview that the government could lower domestic sales tax on oil products, a remark analysts said helped demonstrate the government's determination to fighting inflation.
The spread of 1-year interest rate swaps over 3-month money market rates widened to a 6-1/2-month high as traders priced in a greater chance of an interest rate hike next week, but long-term bond prices held steady as inflation was seen easing over time.
"Buying sentiment regained some momentum after the news conference and on expectation that the inflation would eventually subside after peaking during the first quarter," said Hong Sung-goo, a bond trader at Samsung Securities.
Taxes account for around half of South Korea's auto fuel prices and a reduction in the levy would significantly ease inflation pressures, although the government has said a tax cut was reserved only for an emergency situation.
BACK-TO-BACK TIGHTENING VERY RARE
Economic data aside, some analysts said the Bank of Korea had only once raised interest rates for two successive months -- in 2007 to cool a property boom -- and so would likely still pause at its Feb. 11 policy meeting and raise rates next month.
Currently the housing market remains far from heated and the inflation is led by raw materials and fresh food. Data showed on Tuesday housing prices rose 2.2 percent in January from a year earlier, up from December but far below the headline inflation.
The central bank surprised markets last month by raising the benchmark interest rate a month earlier than expected. It was the third rate increase since the global financial crisis and analysts at the time saw the next hike coming in March or April.
The spread of 1-year interest rate swaps over the 3-month certificate of deposit rate widened to 58 basis points, the highest since the middle of July last year, after a series of data were released early on Tuesday.
The consumer price index rose 4.1 percent in January over a year earlier, up from a 3.5 percent gain in December and above a 3.9 percent rise forecast in a Reuters poll.
Annual growth hit a 3-month high and stood above the upper end of the central bank's target band set at between 2 percent and 4 percent.
The sub-index on input prices from the HSBC/Markit survey of purchasing managers in the South Korean manufacturing sector rose to a seasonally adjusted 65.23 in January from 62.38 in December, touching its highest since February 2009.
Underlining a sustained recovery in Asia's fourth-largest economy despite some signs of slowing in late 2010, exports for the first month of the year rose by a record annual pace to a record amount, separate government data showed.
Exports in January rose 46.0 percent from a year earlier to a record $44.89 billion, compared with a 41.25 percent gain forecast in a Reuters survey and following a revised 22.6 percent rise in December.
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