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My Profile Top News Reuters top ten news stories delivered to your inbox each day. Subscribe You are here: Home > News > International > Article Home Business & Finance News U.S. Politics International Technology Entertainment Sports Lifestyle Oddly Enough Health Science Special Coverage Video Pictures Your View The Great Debate Blogs Weather Reader Feedback Do More With Reuters RSS Widgets Mobile Podcasts Newsletters Your View Make Reuters My Homepage Partner Services CareerBuilder Affiliate Network Professional Products Support (Customer Zone) Reuters Media Financial Products About Thomson Reuters Ukraine opens election campaign, Orange dream faded Sun Oct 18, 2009 8:41am EDT Email | Print | Share | Reprints | Single Page [-] Text [+] By Richard Balmforth KIEV (Reuters) - Whatever happened to Ukraine's Orange Revolution? As the country starts its first presidential election campaign since that popular movement in 2004 broke the grip of the post-Soviet establishment, its leader, President Viktor Yushchenko, stares a painful reality in the face. Opinion polls point to Viktor Yanukovich, his disgraced Moscow-backed opponent back then, getting easily through a January 17 election to go into a run-off vote. Just as bitter for Yushchenko -- his erstwhile "Orange" ally but now rival, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, is almost certain to be the other player in the second-round showdown, analysts say. The 55-year-old president has ratings so low that none but his most loyal supporters see a chance of re-election. Most Ukrainians hope the vote, for which official campaigning begins Monday, will end five years of political in-fighting that has paralyzed decision-making and frustrated reform in one of Europe's worst performing economies. It will also decide the extent to which the ex-Soviet state of 47 million will stick to Yushchenko's pro-western blueprint or toe a more compliant line toward its old master, Russia. No matter who triumphs, most analysts expect renewed efforts to improve frosty ties with Russia -- including pushing the pursuit of NATO membership firmly on to the back-burner -- without abandoning the democratic strides Ukraine has made. The two have been involved in disputes over the pricing and supply of Russian natural gas across Ukrainian territory to Europe. The Russian Black Sea fleet based in the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol could become a serious source of friction. But both Yanukovich, a former prime minister from the hard school of eastern Ukraine politics, and Tymoshenko will fend off competition from Russian big business and attempts to tug Ukraine back into Moscow's sphere of influence, analysts say. "The course for integration into the European Union and NATO will be pushed back for at least five years," said Vadym Karasev, director of the Institute for Global Strategies. "The country will be suspended between the post-Soviet world of yesterday and the European one of tomorrow." POLITICAL RATINGS A poll this month put Yanukovich, whose power base is in Russian-speaking regions of the country, in front with 28.7 per cent. Tymoshenko had 19 percent, according to the SOCIS survey. The challenge from former parliament speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk, 35, who had been seen as a rival for Tymoshenko's vote, has leveled off. Support for him was at 8.2 per cent. Continued... View article on single page Share: Del.icio.us Digg Mixx Yahoo! Facebook LinkedIn Next Article: Delta Lloyd IPO to be offered at discount -sources Afghanistan and Pakistan Pakistan insurgency: What next? After the recent spate of attacks, one of the questions being asked with a rather troubling air of inevitability is: "What next?" Blog | Full Coverage Pakistan faces its worst-case scenario More International News Pakistani forces battle Taliban in S.Waziristan | Video Suicide bomber kills 29 in attack on Iran Guards Diplomatic wrangling delays Afghan vote decision Abbas's popularity dips over Gaza war report North Korea hoping for summit with South: official More International News... Related News FACTBOX: Ukraine's politics and finances 8:30am EDT TIMELINE: Ukrainian politics since the 2004 Orange Revolution 8:41am EDT Editor's Choice Slideshow A selection of our best photos from the past 24 hours. 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