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Full Article Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read Obama to announce actions on housing, student loans 8:03am EDT Vatican calls for global authority on economy, raps “idolatry of the market” 9:08am EDT U.S. pulls its envoy from Syria because of threats 11:36am EDT Libya "liberated," but Gaddafi still unburied | 11:06am EDT Caterpillar remains cautious as earnings soar 10:43am EDT Discussed 200 Obama to announce help on housing, student loans 159 Gaddafi captured as he fled Sirte: NTC official 125 Strike shuts down Greece before austerity vote Watched Libya officially declares liberation. Sun, Oct 23 2011 The hunt for Gaddafi in 60 seconds Thu, Oct 20 2011 Hundreds feared dead in Turkey quake Sun, Oct 23 2011 Prince's death sets challenge to ageing Saudi royals Tweet Share this Email Print Saudi Arabia's Interior Minister Prince Nayef attends a news conference in Mecca in this December 26, 2006 file photo. Prince Nayef is now likely to become heir to the throne after the death of Crown Prince Sultan. The royal court announced the death of Prince Sultan, who was thought to be aged about 86, in New York of colon cancer at dawn on October 22, 2011. Credit: Reuters/Ali Jarekji/Files Factbox Factbox: Key players in the ruling Saudi family Sun, Oct 23 2011 Related News Saudi Arabia prepares for funeral of Crown Prince Sun, Oct 23 2011 WRAPUP 2-Saudi King prepares key appointments after heir dies Sun, Oct 23 2011 Saudi Crown Prince Sultan dies Sat, Oct 22 2011 Saudi King Abdullah leaves hospital Sat, Oct 22 2011 Analysis & Opinion What to wear for an Indonesian royal wedding Who among the seven longest serving African leaders will be deposed next? Related Topics World » Saudi Arabia » By Angus McDowall DUBAI | Mon Oct 24, 2011 10:59am EDT DUBAI (Reuters) - The death of Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Sultan sets the stage for an eventual generational shift in the aging leadership of the world's top oil exporter, even if King Abdullah picks 77-year-old Prince Nayef to succeed him. At stake is the direction of a U.S. ally attempting to reconcile its conservative traditions with the needs of a modern economy and a young, increasingly outward-looking population. Saudi Arabia, which dominates world oil markets and holds profound influence over Muslims through its guardianship of Islam's holiest sites in Mecca and Medina, faces turbulence in its neighbors and a confrontation with regional rival Iran. King Abdullah appears set to appoint veteran Interior Minister Prince Nayef as crown prince and heir, but his choice of a defense minister to replace Sultan, who died in New York on Saturday, may signal how the conservative Islamic state manages the transition to its future leaders. King Abdullah, Sultan and Nayef have run the country since the late King Fahd fell ill in 1995, but the monarch is in his late 80s and has spent three months abroad this year recovering from a back problem that again required surgery last week. He remains firmly in control of the kingdom, but the focus will increasingly fall on Nayef and some younger princes. Chief among them is Prince Salman, the Riyadh Governor who is a full brother of Sultan and Nayef and is seen as next most important in a ruling family that has prized seniority since it was founded by King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud in 1932. "This all points to the key role of Prince Salman, who sooner or later will move up to crown prince," said a former diplomat to Riyadh who wished to remain anonymous. "He will be the one who really decides whether the succession will stay horizontal among the sons of Ibn Saud or go vertical to one of the grandsons." PRINCE NAYEF If the enigmatic Nayef becomes crown prince, his character will shape for years to come the way Saudi Arabia tackles a host of challenges at a time of unprecedented change, both for the kingdom and the wider Middle East. "Nayef had some time with Sultan's long illness to run himself in as crown prince and he has acted on behalf of the king," said another former diplomat. "He has become acquainted with authority across the board." To Saudi liberals, Nayef represents the stern face of the conservative establishment: opposed to any moves toward democracy or women's rights, a supporter of the religious police and the veteran head of an Interior Ministry that locks up political activists without charge. "I'm very worried that Prince Nayef will be the next crown prince," said a 47-year-old woman who did not give her name. "I fear that reform plans will not go forward if he takes power." Nayef was quoted soon after the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States as doubting that any of his compatriots had been involved when 15 of the 19 hijackers were in fact Saudis. However, former diplomats, local journalists and royal family members who have dealt with him paint a softer portrait of a man at the center of Saudi politics for over three decades. "Many things are said about Prince Nayef, but I find him to be a very kind man with a foot on the ground by meeting people," said Khaled al-Maeena, editor at large of the Arab News daily in Jeddah. "He has the pulse of the nation." Reforms enacted by King Abdullah have aimed to strengthen private sector growth and loosen the grip of conservative clerics on the education system and judiciary. "I don't think the gloom and doom about Nayef is justified," said the former diplomat. "You have to realize that Saudi Arabia is run by a coalition. It's not an autocracy run by one man." During the long illness of Sultan and absences of the king, Nayef stood in for his elder brothers, meeting world leaders and managing the kingdom's day-to-day affairs. "I don't think there will be a substantial change of direction," said Hossein Shobokshi, a columnist for the state-owned news channel Al Arabiya. "The country has always opted for the non-surprising method. So we don't see any big decisions in policy." People familiar with him also point out that, as interior minister, Nayef interacts with normal Saudis more frequently than any other senior prince, dealing with the problems of individual citizens in matters ranging from crime to poverty. RESHUFFLE The simultaneous changes of both the crown prince and defense minister might prompt a wider cabinet reshuffle, said analysts, although Abdullah's actions might be constrained by the need to maintain a balance between senior princes. "Doing a cabinet reshuffle in Saudi Arabia is like Sudoku," said an analyst who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the subject. "You think you have solved it and then, whoops, the nine is in the wrong place." Two possible candidates for the Defense Ministry are Prince Khaled bin Sultan, who has been his father's deputy there since 2001, and Prince Salman. The choice of a son or grandson of Ibn Saud will indicate how quickly the Saud family plans to transfer power to a younger generation of princes who have long jockeyed for position. Last year King Abdullah gave up his role as head of the National Guard to his son, Prince Miteb. Nayef's son, Prince Mohammed, has long been tipped to succeed him as interior minister. ALLEGIANCE As condolences came in from figures as diverse as Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal and U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, King Abdullah was expected to summon the Allegiance Council, a family body he set up in 1996 to regulate the succession. Two council members, Prince Salman and Sultan's son and Deputy Defense Minister Prince Khaled bin Sultan, were expected to return with Sultan's body from New York on Monday night. Sultan's funeral will be held on Tuesday before the afternoon prayer in the conservative Islamic state and his body will then be taken away for burial. A guest list had not been released on Monday afternoon. "The name (of his successor) hasn't been announced yet because this time we have a procedure called the Allegiance Council," said Jamal Khashoggi, head of a new television news channel set up by Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal. "The king wants to go through this procedure and is waiting for Prince Salman and Prince Khaled bin Sultan to come back to Riyadh." It would be the first time that the untested council has been used to approve a king's choice of crown prince, a reform Abdullah introduced to ensure an orderly succession in a ruling family that has thousands of members and dozens of branches. Royal succession does not move directly from monarch to offspring, but has passed down a line of brothers born to the kingdom's founder King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, who died in 1953. (Additional reporting by Asma Alsharif in Riyadh; Editing by Alistair Lyon) World Saudi Arabia Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (0) Be the first to comment on reuters.com. Add yours using the box above. Social Stream (What's this?) 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