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WRAPUP 2-NZ jobless at 9-year high; c.bank warns recovery slow
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WRAPUP 2-NZ jobless at 9-year high; c.bank warns recovery slow
Reuters - Thursday, November 5
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* NZ unemployment rises to 6.5 percent, a nine-year high
* Economy sheds 17,000 jobs, employment falls 0.8 percent
* RBNZ governor emphasises NZ's slow and vulnerable recovery
* Investors need understand NZ not Australia - Bollard
* NZ dollar eases, rates firm on data and RBNZ
By Mantik Kusjanto and Gyles Beckford
WELLINGTON, Nov 5 - New Zealand's jobless rate hit a nine-year high in the third quarter and the central bank chief warned that the economic recovery was slow and vulnerable, underlining the case to keep interest rates low into next year.
The New Zealand dollar fell more than half a cent but short-term interest rates were flat as markets were still pricing in the first rate hike to be in March, but the central bank chief said financial markets would face losses if they continued to expect New Zealand to recover as quickly as Australia.
"New Zealand has had a recession, and the pick-up is slower and more vulnerable -- a difference financial markets do not appear to appreciate," governor Alan Bollard said in notes prepared for a business group.
The economy shed more-than-expected 17,000 jobs in the third quarter, sending the jobless rate to 6.5 percent, the highest since March 2000, data showed on Thursday, reflecting the lagged impact of the recession on the jobs market.
The readings were also slightly worse than what the central bank forecast in September.
For a graphic on the job data click http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/119/NZ_UNEMP1109.gif
Last week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its interest rate at a record low 2.5 percent and said it expected to leave it there until "the second half" of 2010, a slight tweak from its previous statement in which it said "the latter part" of next year.
That resulted in financial markets scaling back pricing for the first rate rises to March from January next year.
BETS ON MARCH HIKE
The New Zealand dollar <NZD=D4> hit a low of $0.7192 after Bollard's comments, which also prompted a selloff on the cross rate against the Aussie dollar <NZDAUD=R> to a three-month low.
Bank bill contract yields <0#NBB:> moved slightly lower, while swap rates <NZDOIS> clawed back opening losses to be flat.
Analysts said financial markets are still pricing in 50 basis points of tightening by the end of April because of the expected pick up in the economy.
"We have seen a slew of positive data out there and the market continues to cling to the hope that the Reserve Bank will hike early," said ANZ-National senior economist Khoon Goh said.
Retail sales, house sales and prices, as well as consumer and business confidence data have pointed to a rebound in the economy, which emerged from recession in the second quarter after five quarters of contraction.
"The market-thinking is that leaving it till July is too long," said Westpac Bank senior strategist Imre Speizer.
Other analysts have said New Zealand would need to raise rates sooner to attract foreign investment to fund its large current account deficit.
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