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Edition: U.S. Article Comments (0) Save Email Print Reprints Most Popular Most Shared AIG, autos offset Treasury bank bailout profits 11 Jan 2010 Iran blames U.S. "agents" for scientist's murder | Video 3:09pm EST WHO to review its handling of H1N1 flu pandemic 10:06am EST For sale on Internet - Ukraine's election votes 7:08am EST Italy in racism debate as migrants quit riot town 10 Jan 2010 Why those fat thighs may help you live longer 1:53pm EST AIG, autos offset Treasury bank bailout profits 11 Jan 2010 WHO to review its handling of H1N1 flu pandemic 10:06am EST For sale on Internet - Ukraine's election votes 7:08am EST Watching hours of TV daily could shorten your life 11 Jan 2010 Intel to start tech earnings season with bang Ian Sherr SAN FRANCISCO Tue Jan 12, 2010 2:36pm EST Related News U.S. chip stocks down ahead of Intel results 2:14pm EST UPDATE 4-Chip stocks fall on BofA Merrill downgrades Thu, Nov 19 2009 Intel buoys tech sector, but some preach caution Wed, Oct 14 2009 INSTANT VIEW: Intel posts stronger-than-expected results Tue, Oct 13 2009 SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Intel Corp is again expected to surpass Wall Street forecasts when it kicks off tech sector earnings this week, but analysts worry about a stock sell-off if its 2010 outlook isn't rosy enough. Technology | Media Chipmakers, whose products are found in everything from personal computers and cars to smartphones, are emerging from the industry's worst downturn in decades and are expected to benefit from renewed spending on technology by corporations in 2010. Analysts also point to the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday in February -- a season of high spending in the world's third largest economy -- as an indicator of robust end demand. But some investors worry about a potential, short-lived correction in semiconductor counters. Shares in Intel, which gained more than 8 percent over the holiday quarter, have risen 30 percent over the past six months, bolstered by increased consumer spending in the absence of corporate demand. "We're on the cusp of an enterprise spend cycle this year. We're on the cusp of improving consumer sentiment and consumer spending for notebooks," said Wedbush Morgan analyst Patrick Wang. But "Intel is cheap," he said, adding its valuation of about 11 times forward earnings for 2010, minus cash, was a historic low based on his data. Intel, whose chips are found in more than three-quarters of the world's PCs, is expected to report earnings per share of 30 cents, excluding items, up from 4 cents a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Distant runner-up Advanced Micro Devices Inc is expected to post a loss per share of 18 cents, excluding items, up from the year-ago loss of 69 cents, as it works to pay down debt and finish spinning off chip manufacturing arm Globalfoundries. TD Ameritrade chief derivatives strategist Joe Kinahan said that as of Monday's close, Intel's options prices are implying about a 5 percent share price move in either direction post earnings, based on current volatility levels. "As Intel is the first tech bellwether in the earnings season, there is also some extra anxiety and any type of positive report can send the shares significantly to the upside," he said. LARGER INCOMES, ON SMALLER PRODUCTS The holiday quarter is expected to show strong demand, signaling improved conditions after bouts of factory closures and oversupply that plagued the industry for nearly two years. But investors will be watching average selling prices and margins. Wall Street expects Intel to pull in a gross margin of roughly 62 percent in the fourth quarter, versus just over 53 percent the same time the previous year. One bright spot in the PC industry has been netbooks, essentially no-frills mini-laptops. They sell for much less than their more powerful laptop brethren, and some worry they are replacing sales of costlier microprocessors. Data from the Semiconductor Industry Association released this month showed November chip sales rose 3.7 percent from October, the ninth such month in a row. Some analysts warn there is a correction around the corner for semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 37 percent in 2009's second half. "You've seen semis run in anticipation of good results, and I think we'll see some selling on the news," Wedbush Morgan's Wang said. Semiconductor stocks were down 4 percent on Tuesday on the Philadelphia semiconductor index, Broadpoint Amtech analyst Doug Freedman said chip stocks were up 5 percent this month. "You're waiting for earnings results that some people argue are already priced into the stocks," he said, adding that the sell-off is likely overdone. Another bright spot is China, one of the world's strongest PC markets. Indications are pointing to robust demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday later this month, analysts say. "Most recently we have heard about upside to desktop demand from China," Auriga analyst Daniel Berenbaum said in a note, upgrading Intel to "hold" from "sell" on Monday. Berenbaum is cautious on the stock, however, expecting year over year comparisons to peak in the first quarter, and competition from mobile device chip designer ARM Holdings Plc to pick up. But corporate budgets for the new year are already turning into sales for big-name suppliers, and demand is once again picking up. This could all contribute to Intel garnering some of its highest corporate gross margins ever, possibly reaching 61 percent for 2010, Robert W. Baird analyst Tristan Gerra said. "There's been a slow but steady recovery in real demand, and the whole food chain is still trying to catch up," Gerra added. (Additional reporting by Doris Frankel and Sinead Carew in New York; Editing by Edwin Chan and Richard Chang) Technology Media Add a Comment More from Reuters Calls grow for inquiry into Fed role in AIG issue WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Calls for an inquiry into whether the New York Federal Reserve improperly urged insurer AIG to limit discussions of payments to banks grew on Tuesday as a senior lawmaker issued a subpoena for fuller disclosure. Former TCW manager Gundlach registers new funds In boost to Kraft, Ferrero out of Cadbury race Fed paid record $46.1 billion to Treasury in 2009 Banks decline amid earnings, fee worries Iran blames U.S. "agents" for scientist's murder | Video » More Top News Detroit Auto Show: Turning Chrysler right-side up Sergio Marchionne has the toughest sell to make: a promise to turn Chrysler around, but with a product lineup that will take years to deliver. Full Article Tata's "frugal engineering" Rattner: GM and Chrysler will survive Slideshow: Auto Show highlights Autos Interview: U.S. plot talk a "diversion" A top Pentagon official accuses President Hugo Chavez of making "baseless" accusations against the U.S. to distract Venezuelans from real troubles at home. Full Article Venezuela economy to remain slow Venezuela raids stores in devaluation Who gains, loses from devaluation? Global News Journal © Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters Editorial Editions: Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom United States Reuters Contact Us Advertise With Us Help Journalism Handbook Archive Site Index Video Index Analyst Research Mobile Newsletters RSS Podcasts Widgets Your View Labs Thomson Reuters Copyright Disclaimer Privacy Professional Products Professional Products Support Financial Products About Thomson Reuters Careers Online Products Acquisitions Monthly Buyouts.com Buyouts Europe: Buyouts Conferences: Venture Capital Journal ECVJ International Financing Review International Securitisation Report Project Finance International PEhub.com PE Week Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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