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Tuesday, 24 April 2012 - Options market sees big earnings move for Apple |
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      Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Home Business Business Home Economy Technology Media Small Business Legal Deals Earnings Social Pulse Business Video The Freeland File Markets Markets Home U.S. Markets European Markets Asian Markets Global Market Data Indices M&A Stocks Bonds Currencies Commodities Futures Funds peHUB World World Home U.S. Brazil China Euro Zone Japan Mexico Russia India Insight World Video Reuters Investigates Decoder Politics Politics Home Election 2012 Issues 2012 Candidates 2012 Tales from the Trail Political Punchlines Supreme Court Politics Video Tech Technology Home MediaFile Science Tech Video Tech Tonic Social Pulse Opinion Opinion Home Chrystia Freeland John Lloyd Felix Salmon Jack Shafer David Rohde Bernd Debusmann Nader Mousavizadeh Lucy P. 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See the best of Reuters photography.  See more | Photo caption  Sudan war reignites Sudanese war planes bombed a town in South Sudan in an attack the southern army called a declaration of war.  Slideshow  LA riots: 20 years later The intersection of Florence and Normandie, flashpoint of the riots, as it looks today.  Slideshow  Options market sees big earnings move for Apple Tweet Share this Email Print Related News Chinese investors scramble for a bite of Apple 3:34am EDT Europe, Wal-Mart knock Wall Street lower Mon, Apr 23 2012 Wall Street up on earnings but tech, banks weigh Fri, Apr 20 2012 Wall Street falls on weak data, Qualcomm drags Thu, Apr 19 2012 Verizon Wireless data revenue growth impresses Thu, Apr 19 2012 Analysis & Opinion Do Jubilee shares make any sense? India Markets Weekahead: RBI monetary policy, quarterly earnings in focus Related Topics Tech » iPad » An Apple retail store is seen in Carlsbad, California April 6, 2012. Credit: Reuters/Mike Blake By Angela Moon and Doris Frankel NEW YORK | Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:07am EDT NEW YORK (Reuters) - The wild ride in Apple shares this year could get even more interesting when the company reports quarterly results after the bell on Tuesday. Judging by trade in the options market, investors expect Apple shares to jump or fall by about 7.5 percent, a much greater swing than the average post-earnings move of about 4.25 percent in the past four quarters. Apple shares have experienced wild swings since touching an all-time high of $644 on April 10. The stock closed down 0.2 percent at $571.70 on Monday, but is up about 41 percent for the year. Although the moves in Apple shares have been a huge story for financial markets all year, results for the latest quarter will be released in a more anxious environment. "The reason why the move this time is greater than previous is because there is just so much uncertainty, as the global economy is giving mixed signals," said JJ Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist for TD Ameritrade in Chicago. "Investors are expecting Apple to beat earnings but they also expect Apple to give out a guidance of a slowdown going forward." Based on the activity of weekly Apple options - mostly used for short-term bets and earnings plays as they only have a week-long lifespan and expire every Friday - Apple shares are expected to move by $43, or 7.5 percent, in either direction. Such a move would be the biggest since the shares fell by 10.6 percent when results for the fourth-quarter of 2007 were released in January 2008. Apple is expected to report earnings of $9.94 a share on revenue of $36.48 billion, which equates to earnings growth of about 55 percent from the same quarter a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. According to Birinyi Associates, Apple's earnings have surpassed analysts' projections in 97 percent of reports since 2003. Traders have reacted positively to Apple's report 71 percent of the time, and the stock has risen, on average, 2.6 percent from the closing price prior to earnings to 8 a.m. ET the next morning. "Regardless of whether the stock is higher or lower after the report, the next day from the open to the close Apple trades lower 68 percent of the time for an average loss of 0.5 percent," said Kevin Pleines, analyst at Birinyi Associates. Apple shares are slightly above their 50-day moving average at $570.76. In the options market, 600,000 calls and 394,000 puts traded in Apple on Monday, according to options analytics firm Trade Alert, just a tad above the recent average daily volume. The most active option was the weekly $600 strike calls expiring this Friday, followed by the monthly May $570 strike puts. "Option sentiment is biased positively as a result of call buying in the past few days," said Terry Wilson, equity derivatives strategist at Credit Suisse. Apple's skew, which measures the demand for out-of-the-money puts relative to calls, has flattened and is in the 15th percentile. Apple, riding on strong iPhone and iPad sales, has smashed consensus estimates in recent quarters. But any dissatisfaction with the numbers could weigh heavily on its shares, which have quadrupled over the past two and a half years. (Editing by Leslie Adler) Tech iPad Related Quotes and News Company Price Related News Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints   We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (0) Be the first to comment on reuters.com. Add yours using the box above.   Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Back to top Reuters.com Business Markets World Politics Technology Opinion Money Pictures Videos Site Index Legal Bankruptcy Law California Legal New York Legal Securities Law Support & Contact Support Corrections Connect with Reuters Twitter   Facebook   LinkedIn   RSS   Podcast   Newsletters   Mobile About Privacy Policy Terms of Use AdChoices Copyright Our Flagship financial information platform incorporating Reuters Insider An ultra-low latency infrastructure for electronic trading and data distribution A connected approach to governance, risk and compliance Our next generation legal research platform Our global tax workstation Thomsonreuters.com About Thomson Reuters Investor Relations Careers Contact Us   Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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