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Thursday, 13 December 2012 - Analysis: U.S. confronts limits of shame and sanction policy on North Korea |
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See the best of Reuters photography.  See more | Photo caption  Top tweets of 2012 Obama, Bieber and Green Bay Packers' TJ Lang have garnered the highest number of retweets this year.  Slideshow  Crazy contraband A look at the unusual discoveries customs officials have made at border crossings around the world.  Slideshow  Sponsored Links Analysis: U.S. confronts limits of "shame and sanction" policy on North Korea Tweet Share this Email Print Related News Assad's forces fire Scuds in Syria escalation: U.S. official Wed, Dec 12 2012 WRAPUP 6-Syria fires Scud missiles at rebels -U.S., NATO officials Wed, Dec 12 2012 North Korea rocket launch raises nuclear stakes Wed, Dec 12 2012 U.N. Security Council condemns North Korea launch, weighs response Wed, Dec 12 2012 REFILE-UPDATE 8-North Korea's new leader burnishes credentials with rocket Wed, Dec 12 2012 Analysis & Opinion America’s second chance at global leadership A two-state Middle East solution hangs in the balance as Obama waits Related Topics World » North Korea » By Andrew Quinn WASHINGTON | Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:37pm EST WASHINGTON (Reuters) - North Korea's successful rocket launch poses a fresh quandary for the United States, underscoring how its "shame and sanction" approach to Pyongyang has failed to stop the country's dangerous advances in both nuclear and missile technology, analysts and officials said on Wednesday. The Obama administration has condemned Wednesday's launch as a "highly provocative act" for which there would be "consequences" and has began working at the U.N. Security Council on steps which could broaden existing sanctions on North Korea - already the most isolated country in the world. Officials say the immediate U.S. task is to try to win stronger support from China - North Korea's lone major ally - for enforcing existing sanctions and potentially agreeing to new steps such as adding more entities to the U.N. blacklist, banning travel and freezing assets of individual North Korean officials, and tightening of a cargo-inspection regime. But beyond that, U.S. policy options look thin in the face of fresh evidence that North Korea is on its way toward marrying its nuclear program to a missile capable of hitting the U.S. West Coast. "There has been an unspoken tendency in the United States to discount these tests as yet another foolish attempt by the technologically backward and bizarre country. This is no longer acceptable," Victor Cha, a North Korea expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote in an analysis following the launch. "The question is, will the United States do something else given the new strategic threat posed by the North, or will we wait for them to cross the next threshold to becoming a full-fledged nuclear threat to the U.S. homeland?" FEARS, SETBACKS AND FAILURES U.S. officials say their path has been complicated by continued resistance from Beijing, which is already embroiled in maritime territorial disputes with U.S. allies and wary of a U.S. strategy of rebalancing its military forces from the Middle East and South Asia toward the Asia-Pacific. "Administrations of both parties have worked at this problem for decades. No one has yet found a solution that will stick, and that's largely because all of the major players have never agreed to line up together," one senior administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. U.S. officials stress that the Obama administration has repeatedly sought to set relations with Pyongyang on a more positive track, culminating in a framework agreement early this year that would have North Korea suspend major elements of its weapons programs in return for U.S. food aid. That deal quickly collapsed as North Korea defied international pressure and pushed ahead with an earlier rocket launch in April. That test failed when the rocket broke apart in mid-flight. The United States and its allies say such launches are tantamount to a test of ballistic missile technology forbidden by U.N. Security Council resolutions. North Korea says they are part of a civilian space program. Analysts say North Korea still has a long way to go before it becomes a direct threat to the United States. But with key U.S. allies including Japan and South Korea increasingly anxious, pressure is likely to build on Washington to develop some new strategies. "The ability to boost a rocket and keep it afloat for just over nine minutes has very little to do with hitting Seattle, but you are much more nervous if you are Japan or the Philippines," said George Lopez, a North Korea analyst at the University of Notre Dame. ARMS OR AID State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said U.S. officials were consulting with major U.S. Asian allies, as well as with China, on the next steps. But she indicated there was little immediate appetite for new overtures to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who took power last year following the death of his father. "This is taking them in the wrong direction," Nuland said. "He can spend his time and his money shooting off missiles, or he can feed his people. But he can't have both." Wednesday's launch prompted fresh calls in the U.S. Congress for more pressure on China to rein in its belligerent and impoverished ally, along with demands for a fresh look at missile defense preparations of the United States and its allies. "This should be cause for a change in policy and attitude in dealings with North Korea. And the first thing I think we have to do is have a serious bilateral discussion with China," Rep. Mike Rogers, the Michigan Republican who chairs the House of Representatives Intelligence Committee, said in an interview. Early signs have not been encouraging. In a U.N. Security Council debate on possible new sanctions on Wednesday, one diplomat said U.S. and Chinese representatives had a "spirited discussion" on the best way forward. "The word 'ridiculous' was used more than once," the diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Ultimately, analysts say that Washington may yet find a way to edge back into multilateral "six-party" disarmament talks which broke down in 2008. Despite previous setbacks and failures, little else appears likely to work, they said. "North Korea is showing with this test that the shame and sanction strategy is not working," said Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association, a disarmament advocacy group. "It is gradually improving its missile and nuclear weapons capability, and it does not seem prudent or practical to follow this test with the same tired, ineffective approach." (Reporting by Andrew Quinn, Tabassum Zakaria, Paul Eckert, Matt Spetalnick and Michelle Nichols; Editing by Warren Strobel and David Brunnstrom) World North Korea Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints   We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (2) 1964 wrote:   Edition: U.S. Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Back to top Reuters.com Business Markets World Politics Technology Opinion Money Pictures Videos Site Index Legal Bankruptcy Law California Legal New York Legal Securities Law Support & Contact Support Corrections Connect with Reuters Twitter   Facebook   LinkedIn   RSS   Podcast   Newsletters   Mobile About Privacy Policy Terms of Use AdChoices Copyright Our Flagship financial information platform incorporating Reuters Insider An ultra-low latency infrastructure for electronic trading and data distribution A connected approach to governance, risk and compliance Our next generation legal research platform Our global tax workstation Thomsonreuters.com About Thomson Reuters Investor Relations Careers Contact Us   Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. 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