InfoAnda - Even without Hormuz blockade, Iran has options |

Pakistanis angry over detentions in Times Sq. case
Monday, May 24, 2010
ISLAMABAD – Relatives of three men detained by Pakistan for alleged links to the suspect in the attempted Times Square bombing say the men are innocent.
They

Taiwan denies boycotting Australian film festival
Thursday, August 6, 2009

AFP - Thursday, August 6TAIPEI (AFP) - - Taiwan's Beijing-friendly government on Wednesday denied boycotting an Australian film festival amid a row over the e

Merkel's support dips, regional ally resigns International
Thursday, September 3, 2009

By Sarah Marsh and Noah Barkin

BERLIN (Reuters) - Chancellor Angela Merkel suffered a double blow on Thursday as a senior party ally in east German

Minister seeks closure of anti-Berlusconi websites
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
ROME (AFP) - – The Italian government moved Tuesday to close down Internet sites encouraging further violence against Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who

Asian markets mixed after Wall Street rally
Wednesday, March 18, 2009

By ELAINE KURTENBACH,AP Business Writer AP - Wednesday, March 18SHANGHAI - Asia's stock market rally seemed to be running out of steam Wednesday, despite an

China says data show U.S. tyre tariff not fair | 16 September 2009
S.Korea to offer Hynix stake to foreigners -paper | 29 January 2009
Special report: Can Japan find New Deal after triple whammy? | | 14 March 2011

Israel says Gaza assault 'war to the bitter end' | 30 December 2008

Forum Views () Forum Replies ()

Read more with google mobile : Even without Hormuz blockade, Iran has options |

Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Home Business Business Home Economy Davos 2012 Technology Media Small Business Legal Deals Earnings Summits Business Video The Freeland File Markets Markets Home U.S. Markets European Markets Asian Markets Global Market Data Indices M&A Stocks Bonds Currencies Commodities Futures Funds peHUB World World Home U.S. Brazil China Euro Zone Japan Mexico Russia India Insight World Video Reuters Investigates Decoder Politics Politics Home Election 2012 Issues 2012 Candidates 2012 Tales from the Trail Political Punchlines Supreme Court Politics Video Tech Technology Home MediaFile Science Tech Video Tech Tonic Opinion Opinion Home Chrystia Freeland John Lloyd Felix Salmon Jack Shafer David Rohde Bernd Debusmann Nader Mousavizadeh Lucy P. Marcus David Cay Johnston Bethany McLean Edward Hadas Hugo Dixon Ian Bremmer Mohamed El-Erian Lawrence Summers Susan Glasser The Great Debate Steven Brill Geraldine Fabrikant Breakingviews Equities Credit Private Equity M&A Macro & Markets Politics Breakingviews Video Money Money Home Tax Break Global Investing MuniLand Unstructured Finance Linda Stern Mark Miller John Wasik James Saft Analyst Research Alerts Watchlist Portfolio Stock Screener Fund Screener Personal Finance Video Money Clip Life Health Sports Arts Faithworld Business Traveler Entertainment Oddly Enough Lifestyle Video Pictures Pictures Home Reuters Photographers Full Focus Video Reuters TV Reuters News Article Comments (4) Video VIDEO Tahrir Square on revolution anniversary Egyptians head to Cairo's Tahrir Square to mark the first anniversary of the uprising that toppled former President Hosni Mubarak. Video One year on, calls for change continue in Egypt Egypt's early hours of the revolution Life during the Egyptian uprising Egypt's revolution in review The fall of Hosni Mubarak Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read U.S. commandos free two pirate hostages in Somalia 11:16am EST Subculture of Americans prepares for civilization's collapse 21 Jan 2012 Iran's Ahmadinejad ups rates to stem money crisis 8:29am EST Gingrich wants to hear his debate fans roar 24 Jan 2012 Delta diverts polar flights due to solar storm 5:56am EST Discussed 332 Subculture of Americans prepares for civilization’s collapse 205 Abortion safer than giving birth: study 160 Romney reports tax bill of $6.2 million for 2010-11 Watched Angelina Jolie fascinated by "bizarre" Republican presidential race Sun, Jan 22 2012 Aesop's fable brought to life by clever crows Tue, Jan 24 2012 Obama targets economic inequality Tue, Jan 24 2012 Even without Hormuz blockade, Iran has options Tweet Share this Email Print Factbox Factbox: Strait of Hormuz Tue, Jan 24 2012 Related News Iran says sanctions to fail, repeats Hormuz threat Tue, Jan 24 2012 Iran slams EU oil embargo, warns could hit U.S. Mon, Jan 23 2012 U.S. aircraft carrier enters Gulf without incident Mon, Jan 23 2012 After threats, Iran plays down U.S. naval moves Sat, Jan 21 2012 Analysis & Opinion Obituary of a scandal : A first draft on Pakistan’s “Memogate” Yemen needs an insurgent democracy Related Topics World » Related Video Iran and the Strait of Hormuz – next steps Mon, Jan 23 2012 The Nimitz-class aircraft carriers USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) and USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) join for a turnover of responsibility in the Arabian Sea in this U.S. Navy handout photo dated January 19, 2012. The USS Abraham Lincoln sailed through the Strait of Hormuz and into the Gulf without incident on Sunday, a day after Iran backed away from an earlier threat to take action if an American carrier returned to the strategic waterway. Credit: Reuters/U.S. Navy/Chief Mass Communication Specialist Eric S. Powell/Handout By Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent LONDON | Wed Jan 25, 2012 8:25am EST LONDON (Reuters) - Under pressure over its nuclear ambitions, Iran might never act on its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz but could retain enough tricks in its playbook to keep its enemies, shippers and global markets on edge. As Western states tighten sanctions and its enemies wage an apparent covert war against its uranium enrichment program, Tehran has warned several times it may seal off the waterway, choking the supply of Gulf crude and gas. Few intelligence, military and security experts contacted by Reuters either in or outside government, however, believe that is genuinely likely. Instead, they say, Iran's leaders will be looking for ways to harass enemies and cause disruption while falling short of triggering a massive U.S.-led retaliation. Possible Iranian gambits could include harrying tanker traffic in the Gulf with fast attack boats, seizing uninhabited Gulf islands claimed by other states, grabbing hostages from passing civilian or military ships, stoking trouble in Sunni Muslim-ruled Arab states with restive Shi'ite Muslim communities and orchestrating attacks on U.S. forces in Afghanistan or elsewhere using militant "proxies" such as Hezbollah. The risk inherent in all this, however, is that someone on either side miscalculates and triggers a full-blown conflict. "These scenarios make sense as likely actions falling short of actively blocking the Strait -- but they will certainly raise tensions," says Nikolas Gvosdev, professor of national security studies at the U.S. Naval War College in Rhode Island. "Iran's goal in raising tensions in the Gulf may be to get other countries to put pressure on the United States to show restraint (and) as a way to create some breathing room for Tehran to maneuver." Iran's Revolutionary Guard plans more military exercises for February, sending more swarms of gunboats into international waters and showing off its anti-ship missile arsenal. That in itself could close some areas of the Gulf to shipping, as well is rattling neighbors and shipping firms. Iran's 2007 capture of 15 British naval personnel proved hugely embarrassing for London. Tehran may be looking for similar ways success in humbling Western powers without inflicting physical harm. Already, U.S. and allied naval officers say their vessels are often shadowed by Iranian gunboats, and some worry that if matters escalate further those confrontations could intensify. "They could easily keep it coming and make it more harassing," said one Western naval officer with considerable experience in the region, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the press. "But short of an Iranian small boat actually attacking one of our ships, our responses will be within the letter of the law and non-lethal in nature." HEAVY POSTURING Beyond the waters of the Gulf, many analysts expect Iran to further raise its support for regional proxies, from militants attacking U.S. forces in Afghanistan to Shi'ite protesters and militants in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. It could add to the growing sense of regional confrontation arising from Iran's defiance of several U.N. resolutions demanding that it suspend its atomic energy program, seen in the West as a camouflaged bid for nuclear weapons capability, and engage in negotiations with world powers on a solution. Washington seems keen to stress its resolve and showcase its military strength. This week, the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln passed through Hormuz flanked by British and French warships - in open defiance of Tehran's warning earlier this month that Washington should keep its carriers out of the Gulf. In reality, naval sources say the move was likely planned months or longer in advance - every time a giant U.S. carrier docks anywhere, dozens of contracts need to be in place for it to be serviced and supplied. But this time, given the Iranian threat and the heightened tension, the warships' entry would have been approved at the highest level and deliberately publicized to an unusual degree. "Both sides are engaged in heavy posturing right now," said Reva Bhalla, director of strategic intelligence for U.S.-based consultancy Stratfor. "Iran is focused right now on highlighting its deterrence tools in the Persian Gulf ... This, of course, increases the risk of miscalculation." Whilst some analysts believe the Islamic Republic may already worry it has overreached itself, others worry that pulling back may become increasingly difficult politically. The conventional military mismatch between Iran and its enemies remains colossal. As well as the Abraham Lincoln, the United States routinely retains a second carrier in the Indian Ocean - currently the USS Carl Vinson - within easy striking distance. Between them, the two battle groups have the capacity to carry well over 120 aircraft, while escort ships will be carrying dozens if not hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles. Then there are U.S. combat aircraft based in the Gulf and Afghanistan, together with other well-equipped local air forces, particularly that of Saudi Arabia, not to mention Israel. Long-range stealth and other bombers based either in the continental United States or the British Indian Ocean territory of Diego Garcia could also hit Iranian targets with virtual impunity. "Closing Hormuz is a myth. Iran tried to do that for eight years during the (1980s) Iran-Iraq war, and it wasn't successful even for one hour," said Mustafa Alani, head of Security and Terrorism Studies at the Gulf Research Center. "They put mines, hit ships, but traffic through the strait continued. They were hit very hard and learned their lesson when they hit an American ship. The U.S. president ordered the U.S. navy to attack, and two-thirds of the Iranian navy was destroyed in one day. We saw that and we know their limitations," he said. "This is why there are clear statements coming from Saudi Arabia and the UAE (United Arab Emirates) saying, indirectly, that they will replace Iran's oil." "ASYMMETRIC WARFARE" THREAT Iran's functional air force is limited to perhaps as few as a few dozen strike aircraft, either Russian or aging U.S. models acquired before the 1979 Iranian revolution and for which Tehran has long struggled to find spare parts. The conventional Iranian Navy (IRIN) is also weak by modern standards. In any war, its corvettes and relatively advanced three Russian-built Kilo diesel electric submarines -- the pride of its navy -- would almost certainly be destroyed. Its missile, torpedo and sea mine-equipped mini submarines are also seen as likely to be sunk within days. More of a worry to Western strategists and shippers are the hardline Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Naval Forces (IRGCNF) with their focus on "asymmetric warfare" designed to work around Tehran's conventional military inferiority. Firing their truck-mounted missiles directly at a warship or commercial vessel would be swiftly judged an act of war and prompt the immediate U.S. destruction of coastal batteries. But hundreds of Iranian small boats - believed to include suicide craft modeled on those once used by Sri Lanka's Tamil Tigers -would offer more options. Operating in international waters, they can perform threatening passes of both commercial and military shipping, perhaps even firing warning shots and essentially daring international forces to respond. Individual craft could even conduct damaging and perhaps deniable attacks. For many -- including the insurance companies nervously watching Gulf waters as they determine premiums -- the key question is whether such forces are under responsible control. "Whereas the IRIN (Iran's mainstream navy) is a conventional military force and likely to be under tight control, the same is not true of the IRGCN," said John Cochrane, senior global risk forecaster at Exclusive Analysis, a London-based consultancy advising foreign firms in the region, including insurers. "We assess there is a higher risk of a low-level IRGC small boat commander taking unsanctioned action - or just making a mistake - that would result in an incident in which lethal force was used by one side or the other." Many of the commercial ships passing through Hormuz now carry their own often heavily armed private security details to protect against Somali pirates in the wider Indian Ocean. Already accused of sometimes shooting unnecessarily at fishing boats, some worry that private security units could spark wider confrontation by inadvertently firing the first shots against Iranian forces. But ultimately, many believe, wiser heads would probably prevail before matters spiraled out of control. Such action would not be without precedent. After frigate USS Samuel B Roberts was heavily damaged by an Iranian mine during the so-called "tanker war" in 1988, the U.S. military launched a limited retaliatory strike that wiped out much of Iran's navy. But outright war was avoided, as it was again a month later after the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian airliner, killing 290 in what Washington said was a tragic accident. "I think it's unlikely to escalate -- Iran has too much to lose... and our forces are too professional to let any kind of a localized event blow up into a larger conflict," said the senior Western naval officer. "If there is an incident, we will quickly get our forces into our respective corner, establish a defensive posture - albeit ready to go on the offensive if directed... - and wait to see what Iran's next move on the chessboard will be." (Additional reporting by William Maclean in London and Joseph Logan in Dubai; Editing by Mark Heinrich) World Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (4) hjmaiere wrote: Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Back to top Reuters.com Business Markets World Politics Technology Opinion Money Pictures Videos Site Index Legal Bankruptcy Law California Legal New York Legal Securities Law Support & Contact Support Corrections Advertise With Us Connect with Reuters Twitter Facebook LinkedIn RSS Podcast Newsletters Mobile About Privacy Policy Terms of Use Our Flagship financial information platform incorporating Reuters Insider An ultra-low latency infrastructure for electronic trading and data distribution A connected approach to governance, risk and compliance Our next generation legal research platform Our global tax workstation Thomsonreuters.com About Thomson Reuters Investor Relations Careers Contact Us Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

Other News on Wednesday, 25 January 2012
U.N. envoys slam Russia for selling weapons to Syria |
Anger, chaos but no revolt after Libya violence |
Netanyahu cites Holocaust lesson in dealing with Iran |
Turkey warns Iraqi PM over sectarian conflict |
Analysis: New EU data laws command the tide but not the cost |
Entrepreneurs bring Internet coding skills to everyday users |
Time Warner leads funding for second social TV company |
ST-Ericsson CEO sees very difficult 2012 |
Oscar's big snub: Uggie the dog, a true Artist |
Downtown and all around New York with Petula Clark |
Jagger says UK's Cameron can't get what he wants |
Sony, Paramount and Weinstein Co. get Oscar boost |
U.S. raid frees two pirate hostages in Somalia |
Islamist militants quit captured Yemeni town |
One year on, Egypt will demonstrate and celebrate |
Blast destroys police station in north Nigeria |
Anger, chaos but no revolt after Libya violence |
Analysis: Myanmar shows little sign of economic miracle |
Apple returns to form, blows Street targets away |
Ericsson Q4 profit halves, sees challenges |
Facebook to stop honoring trades in shares for 3 days: source |
SAP sets sights on fresh profit record |
Google to unify privacy policy across products |
New Yahoo CEO says company needs to do better |
Chipmaker AMD expects lower revenue in weak PC market |
Megaupload founder faces lengthy extradition battle |
Nvidia cuts revenue forecast, shares drop |
Hollywood embraces hopeful tales with Oscar nominations |
Demi Moore seeks help for exhaustion, health issues |
Garth Brooks awarded $1 million in suit against hospital |
Country music great Haggard recovering from pneumonia |
Style author Charla Krupp dies of cancer at age 58 |
Garth Brooks awarded $1 million in suit against hospital |
France's Jean Dujardin plays down Hollywood success |
Documentary makers spur calls to action at Sundance |
Gulf monitors leave Syria, League seeks U.N. support |
Iran's Ahmadinejad ups rates to stem money crisis |
Even without Hormuz blockade, Iran has options |
Transcripts show Italy captain says was told to approach shore |
A year after uprising, Egyptians celebrate and protest |
Torture and lawlessness as Libya victory high ends |
Workers unearth suspected mass grave in southeast Turkey |
Afghan army's night raiders ready to take control |
Pakistan PM drops criticism of the military |
Come for coffee, don't forget the cocaine, Dotcom joked |
Breach of new EU online data rules to carry high fines |
Core suppliers savor bigger Apple pie |
A Minute With: Mary Tyler Moore on a life of achievement |
Abu Dhabi further delays Louvre, Guggenheim projects |
Irishman makes billion-euro home of shredded notes |
Saudi artists test limits of expression in rare show |
Greece at new risk of being pushed off euro
Bodies of missing Tenn. mom, Jo Ann Bain, and daughter found
Female Breasts Are Bigger Than Ever
AMD Trinity Accelerated Processing Units Now in Volume Production
The Avengers (2012 film), made the second biggest opening- and single-day gross of all-time
AMD to Start Production of piledriver
Ivy Bridge Quad-Core, Four-Thread Desktop CPUs
Islamists Protest Lady Gaga's Concert in Indonesia
Japan Successfully Broadcasts an 8K Signal Over the Air
ECB boosts loans to 1 trillion Euro to stop credit crunch
Egypt : Mohammed Morsi won with 52 percent
What do you call 100,000 Frenchmen with their hands up
AMD Launches AMD Embedded R-Series APU Platform
Fed Should not Ignore Emerging Market Crisis
Fed casts shadow over India, emerging markets
Why are Chinese tourists so rude? A few insights

USD EUR - 1 year graph	VPN on MacOSX	BlogMeter 1.01