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Obama's Export Goal Met With Skepticism
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January 29, 2010 7:44 p.m. EST
Topics: United States, Politics, Business
Tom Ramstack - AHN Correspondent
Washington, D.C., United States (AHN) - The goal President Obama announced this week of creating two million new jobs by doubling U.S. exports will be difficult to attain, according to international trade experts.
U.S. exporters must compete head-to-head with export giants like China, who some analysts say use trade policies that give them an unfair advantage.
"Tonight, we set a new goal: We will double our exports over the next five years, an increase that will support two million jobs in America," Obama said during his State of the Union address on Wednesday. "To help meet this goal, we're launching a National Export Initiative that will help farmers and small businesses increase their exports and reform export controls consistent with national security."
Erasing the current $400 billion per year trade imbalance within Obama's timeframe would require exporting at least 15 percent more American-made products each year, according to economists.
Before the trade deficit could be balanced, the U.S. government would need to impose a tax on currency conversions between the United States and China, said Peter Morici, a University of Maryland economist.
The U.S. Commerce Department estimates China's currency is undervalued by about 40 percent. In addition, China needs to lower tariffs on products it imports from the United States.
"They have a 25 percent tariff on U.S. cars," Morici said.
So far, the U.S. government has declined to pressure the Chinese forcefully on fair trade policies, he said.
As a result, a goal of doubling exports might need to await a tough confrontation on international trade.
"Obama just takes numbers out of the air and throws them into speeches," Morici said.
Commerce Secretary Gary Locke is scheduled to announce next week details of Obama's plan for boosting the U.S. export market from $1 trillion per year to $2 trillion.
The United States is the world's third biggest exporter, behind first place China and second place Germany.
Foreign economists and editorial writers weighed in quickly with responses to Obama's export plan.
An editorial in Canada's National Post newspaper said, "What really creates jobs and prosperity is trade, not exports. And trade on a global scale is never and cannot be balanced on a nation-to-nation basis. It is impossible. And it is undesirable and dangerous to want to bring about such balances by government action. Mr. Obama's plan to 'double our exports' over the next five years sets a goal that is unachievable by any government policy."
Mexican economists expressed concern over being left out of any opportunities Obama hopes to create for the United States.
"Regarding Mexico, he said nothing," says an editorial in the Terra Mexico journal. "Has our northern neighbor who is closer than any other country mentioned forgotten us? Barack Obama emphasized that exports will generate new opportunities for Americans. Will that mean stricter measures are applied to Mexicans that look for opportunities in that country?"
A Japan Times editorial warned of international trade conflicts.
"Ten is the number to watch," the Japan Times said. "America's 10 percent unemployment and China's potential 10 percent GDP [gross domestic product] growth are set to collide like weather fronts generating a storm. American populism will meet Chinese pride. And the fevered political climate created by U.S. midterm elections means that the world's most important bilateral relationship is headed for real turbulence this year."
Nevertheless, Obama's goal for a new trade policy that focuses on export growth was welcomed by U.S. business executives.
A statement from the Business Roundtable, a group of corporate chief executive officers, said, "We believe now is the time for Congress to pass the FTAs [free trade agreements] pending in Congress as a first step towards the enhanced international trade and investment that is essential to growing the U.S. economy and creating more and better-paying jobs."
Copyright © 2003 - 2010 AHN - All rights reserved.Redistribution, republication. syndication, rewriting or broadcast is prohibited without the prior written consent of AHN.License AHN news for your website, business, digital signage network or publication.
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