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Thursday, 17 May 2012 - A post-IPO Facebook strategy |
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      Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Home Business Business Home Economy Technology Media Small Business Legal Deals Earnings Social Pulse Business Video The Freeland File Markets Markets Home U.S. Markets European Markets Asian Markets Global Market Data Indices M&A Stocks Bonds Currencies Commodities Futures Funds peHUB World World Home U.S. Brazil China Euro Zone Japan Mexico Russia India Insight World Video Reuters Investigates Decoder Politics Politics Home Election 2012 Issues 2012 Candidates 2012 Tales from the Trail Political Punchlines Supreme Court Politics Video Tech Technology Home MediaFile Science Tech Video Tech Tonic Social Pulse Opinion Opinion Home Chrystia Freeland John Lloyd Felix Salmon Jack Shafer David Rohde Bernd Debusmann Nader Mousavizadeh Lucy P. 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People who have lost the use of their limbs can perform basic functions by manipulating the technology with their minds, according to the U.S. study.  Video  Stem cell therapy credited with saving girl's life Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read Exclusive: ECB stops operations with some Greek banks 5:02pm EDT Apple readies iPhone with bigger screen: sources 4:06pm EDT Facebook IPO triggers retail investor craze 1:05pm EDT Lawyers for ex-Senator John Edwards rest case 5:06pm EDT Samsung loses $10 billion market value on Apple order report 4:59am EDT Discussed 169 Romney apologizes for bullying incident at school 156 Germany’s Merkel dealt heavy blow in state vote 110 Weary warriors favor Obama Watched A look at the UK’s most beautiful face Thu, May 10 2012 Drought blamed for fall of Mayan civilization Tue, May 15 2012 'Mother killed kids': police Tue, May 15 2012 Wealth and Investing Center Pictures Reuters Photojournalism Our day's top images, in-depth photo essays and offbeat slices of life. See the best of Reuters photography.  See more | Photo caption  Nigeria's oil thieves Nigeria is Africa's largest crude oil exporter but its production capacity has been slashed by thieves drilling into pipelines.  Slideshow  Life in an Amazon tribe A look at life in the Brazilian Amazon basin with the Yawalapiti tribe.  Slideshow  A post-IPO Facebook strategy Tweet Share this Email Print Related News Facebook boosts IPO size by 25 percent, could top $16 billion 4:09pm EDT GM to drop Facebook ads due to low consumer impact 6:51am EDT Facebook increases IPO range to raise $12.1 billion Tue, May 15 2012 S&P 500 in third straight drop, J.C. Penney off late Tue, May 15 2012 Scared of Facebook shares? Wager on Friday's close Tue, May 15 2012 Analysis & Opinion Facebook: The smart money exits Facebook winning Keynesian beauty contest Related Topics Tech » Deals » Global Deals Review: 2011 Q3 » Global Deals Review: 2011 Q2 » Global Deals Review » Money » Inflows Outflows » Media » Facebook » The Facebook profile of founder Mark Zuckerberg on a mobile phone is seen in this photo illustration taken in Lavigny May 16, 2012. Credit: Reuters/Valentin Flauraud By David K. Randall NEW YORK | Wed May 16, 2012 3:35pm EDT NEW YORK (Reuters) - Try as they might, many retail investors won't be able to get shares of Facebook in its first hours of trading. They may be better off waiting it out anyway. Buying at the closing price of the initial public offering day and holding on to your shares has not been a profitable strategy lately, especially for companies in the media business. While Facebook is a unique company with 900 million users, some recent IPOs serve as reminders that the sizzle for once hot companies can fade quickly. Of seven media or social media company IPOs in the last year, only LinkedIn is now trading above where its stock closed after its trading debut. Millennial Media, a mobile advertising company, saw its shares jump 92 percent the day its shares debuted in late March. Since then, the stock has slid nearly 46 percent to $13.40, as of Tuesday's close. Last year, shares of Demand Media jumped 33 percent on the company's initial day of trading. Over the next six months, they fell 49 percent, and are down about 63 percent overall as of Tuesday. And investors who bought shares of Groupon after they closed 31 percent higher on the first day in November have lost 53 percent as of Tuesday's close as the company's shares slid to $12.17 each. Optimistic potential investors in Facebook, co-founded by Mark Zuckerberg in 2004, may consider the company immune to a post-IPO letdown because of its popularity. But there are ways investors can time their purchases to prevent getting caught up in the early euphoria. Facebook, which is expected to have its initial public offering on Friday, is planning to raise as much as $16 billion by selling about 421 million shares at a target price range of $34 to $38 each. While the company has set aside some shares for retail investors, brokers tend to reserve this allotment for wealthier clients. Those who don't qualify will be stuck trying to get in on the buying frenzy of the first day, at a time when some analysts expect shares of Facebook to pop more than 30 percent to more than $50 each. Waiting a week or two from the first day of trading may prove to be more profitable than trying to get in on the first day, analysts said. "You want some of the frothiness from the excitement of the IPO to burn off," said Jim Krapfel, an analyst at Morningstar who covers the company and values the company at $32 per share. Buying at the first day's closing price would leave "limited upside for long-term fundamental investors," he said in a recent report on the company. Dave Abate, a financial planner with Strategic Wealth Partners in Seven Hills, Ohio, said that he is telling clients to wait a couple of days for the stock to reach an equilibrium. Facebook is the first time his firm has developed a client strategy specifically for an IPO, he said. "Everyone and their grandma uses Facebook and wants a piece of it. They feel like they've missed the boat with Apple and this is their opportunity to get in on the ground floor," he said. Zuckerberg, who turned 28 this week, is one of the world's youngest billionaires, but despite the allure of Facebook, investing in the company comes with risks, such as the company's reputation with being unconcerned about user's privacy, Abate said. "I consider Zuckerberg a pretty big risk himself. He's unpredictable and if he grows bored with the company (and leaves) I don't know what's left of Facebook at that point," he said. Abate is also concerned that Zuckerberg has too much power, with more than 50 percent of voting rights, increasing the risk in investing in the company. For clients that remain interested in Facebook, Abate is counseling them that there will be several dips in the future to buy the stock without buying at an over inflated value because of "short-term flippers." One way to avoid short-term remorse: buying shares of mutual funds that already own shares of Facebook. T. Rowe Price, for instance, purchased shares of Facebook traded on private markets and has spread them across 19 funds. Krapfel said a date potential investors should watch for is 91 days after the IPO, or August 20. That's the day that the first so-called lock-up period for 172 million shares expires, allowing some insiders to sell their shares. The end of a lock-up period typically leads to a decline in share prices, according to a 2001 paper in the Journal of Finance by Laura Casares Field and Gordon Hanka. The pair found that a company's average trading volume tends to increase by 40 percent and shares fall an average of 1.5 percent over three days after its lock-up ends. August will be a relatively small insider selling window. Most employees and directors, except for Zuckerberg, will have to wait to sell their insider shares after 151 days, Krapfel said. The majority of the insider shares - 1.34 billion in all, which includes Zuckerberg's stake - can be sold 181 days after the IPO. Some analysts said that heavy selling by insiders may be a warning sign for investors. "At this stage, if anyone sold a considerable stake at the lockup stage it would be a giant yellow flag, especially given the young age of executives," said John Kozey, an equities analyst at Reuters. The last four months of 2012 will bring two more milestones. Nasdaq OMX Group, the company behind the exchange, changed its rules in April to allow companies to be included in its Nasdaq 100, a cap-weighted index of the largest non-financial shares in the Nasdaq Composite Index, four months after they begin trading. Once that happens, analysts expect that index funds and ETFs that track like the Nasdaq 100, such as the $31.3 billion PowerShares QQQ ETF, will add shares of Facebook, potentially lifting the stock by a few percentage points. And in November, Facebook will be eligible for inclusion in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, the benchmark for most mutual funds. S&P typically requires IPOs to trade for six to 12 months before considering the companies for its indices. The announcement of a new company to the S&P 500 index typically results in a 5.7 percent one-day pop in the company's shares, according to a paper in Financial Management in 2006. (Reporting by David Randall; Editing by Walden Siew and Tim Dobbyn) Tech Deals Global Deals Review: 2011 Q3 Global Deals Review: 2011 Q2 Global Deals Review Money Inflows Outflows Media Facebook Related Quotes and News Company Price Related News Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints   We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (0) Be the first to comment on reuters.com. Add yours using the box above.   Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Back to top Reuters.com Business Markets World Politics Technology Opinion Money Pictures Videos Site Index Legal Bankruptcy Law California Legal New York Legal Securities Law Support & Contact Support Corrections Connect with Reuters Twitter   Facebook   LinkedIn   RSS   Podcast   Newsletters   Mobile About Privacy Policy Terms of Use AdChoices Copyright Our Flagship financial information platform incorporating Reuters Insider An ultra-low latency infrastructure for electronic trading and data distribution A connected approach to governance, risk and compliance Our next generation legal research platform Our global tax workstation Thomsonreuters.com About Thomson Reuters Investor Relations Careers Contact Us   Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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