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Saturday, 28 July 2012 - Analysis: Internet stock collapse dents Silicon Valley |
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      Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Home Business Business Home Economy Technology Media Small Business Legal Deals Earnings Social Pulse Business Video The Freeland File Aerospace & Defense Markets Markets Home U.S. Markets European Markets Asian Markets Global Market Data Indices M&A Stocks Bonds Currencies Commodities Futures Funds peHUB World World Home U.S. Brazil China Euro Zone Japan Mexico Russia India Insight World Video Reuters Investigates Decoder Politics Politics Home Election 2012 Campaign Polling Tales from the Trail Political Punchlines Supreme Court Politics Video Tech Technology Home MediaFile Science Tech Video Tech Tonic Social Pulse Opinion Opinion Home Chrystia Freeland John Lloyd Felix Salmon Jack Shafer David Rohde Bernd Debusmann Nader Mousavizadeh Lucy P. 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See the best of Reuters photography.  See more | Photo caption  Flashback: Beijing A look back at the opening ceremonies of the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, China.  Slideshow  My name is ... What their moms named these famous singers.  Slideshow  Analysis: Internet stock collapse dents Silicon Valley Tweet Share this Email Print Related News Facebook's value slides by $10 billion; outlook unclear 11:16am EDT Facebook revenue growth skids, shares plunge 5:23am EDT Facebook shares pressured by Zynga ahead of results Thu, Jul 26 2012 Zynga shares slump on fading "Farmville" fortunes Thu, Jul 26 2012 Zynga takes axe to outlook, spooks Facebook investors Wed, Jul 25 2012 Related Topics Tech » Media » Zynga General Manager Manuel Bronstein speaks during the Zynga Unleashed event at the company's headquarters in San Francisco, California June 26, 2012. Credit: Reuters/Stephen Lam By Gerry Shih and Sarah McBride SAN FRANCISCO | Fri Jul 27, 2012 2:11pm EDT SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Social media companies, once hailed by their Silicon Valley boosters as world-changing businesses with limitless potential, are instead proving a sobering reminder of how investors can be seduced by Internet hype. With few exceptions, the first wave of social media firms to trade on the public markets has delivered a disastrous performance that conjures memories of the dot-com bust of 2000. "Farmville" publisher Zynga, which went public in December at a valuation of $7 billion, is trading around $3.15 a share, more than 68 percent off its $10 IPO price. Daily deals site Groupon, touted as the firm that could reinvent local commerce, has fallen from its $20 IPO price to about $7.15 in nearly nine months. Music service Pandora Media has dropped from $16 at its June 2011 IPO to around $9.50 on Friday. And on Thursday, the 800-pound gorilla of the group, Facebook Inc, reported tepid results that shaved some $10 billion off the company's market cap. The stock has gone straight down since its botched May initial public offering and now trades at around one-third off its $38 IPO price. "The VCs, the private equity guys at the early stages, already cashed out and made their fortunes," said Peter Schiff, chief executive of Euro Pacific Capital. "Everybody else who ran to buy the stock at the IPO at a sky-high valuation ended up holding the bag." "A lot of these companies are going to make a quick buck and flame out," he added. "Just look at 10 years ago." It's true that a few companies with more of a business focus -- notably LinkedIn -- have done much better. The jobs-networking site is trading at $100.82, well above its $45 IPO price from May 2011. Yelp Inc, the local reviews company, is holding above its $15 IPO price from March. Startups in areas like data analytics and business software, such as Splunk Inc have also fared well. But the wipe-out among consumer-oriented social media companies has raised concerns the entire sector is fad-driven. While the public companies are profitable and showing strong growth -- unlike the class of 1999 and 2000 -- it is not clear how sustainable that is. "People just can't figure out how these companies are going to make money and justify these huge valuations," said Michael Yoshikami, founder of Destination Wealth Management. The euphoria around Internet stocks, Yoshikami added, has faded. "It's different from six months ago," he said. In Silicon Valley, venture capitalists fear the high-profile stock busts will take a toll on the next wave of companies trying to go public. To some extent, they say, they already have. "It's going to have a chilling, sobering effect," said Tim Chang, managing partner at Mayfield Fund. "It's especially hard to make the argument of why a company should be valued at $1 billion or more." MAKING GOOD On Thursday, Facebook reported its first quarterly revenues of $1.18 billion, up 32 percent. But executives warned a quickening shift to its underperforming mobile app was eating into results, and user and revenue growth slowed for the fifth consecutive quarter. The stock was down 9 percent in afternoon trading on Friday. It has not helped pacify Wall Street that the tech firms' venture capital backers on Sand Hill Road in Menlo Park, California, have enjoyed big paydays via IPOs. In the case of Facebook, Accel Partners sold 49 million shares at $38 apiece, reaping enormous profits. Insiders have sold large chunks of their holdings in Zynga and Groupon, though the top executives still maintain enormous stakes in their companies. Zynga CEO Mark Pincus and other insiders netted some $500 million when they sold a portion of their stock in April at $12 a share. Others were less fortunate. T. Rowe Price lost $61.4 million in its Facebook and Zynga holdings over two days. Fidelity, the largest U.S. fund, saw $126 million of its on-paper holdings evaporate over the past two days. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who owns just north of half a billion shares, took his lumps as well, as more than $3 billion of his paper-weath evaporated Thursday. 'DOESN'T JIVE' Zynga's stock went into free-fall after it slashed its 2012 outlook from 23 to 29 cents to 4 to 9 cents, blaming weakness in existing Facebook games and a delay in its pipeline. The results widely missed expectations set by company management at the end of last quarter, when Chief Operating Officer John Schappert said the company was "excited and comfortable raising guidance for the year." On a conference call, BTIG analyst Richard Greenfield took Zynga executives to task for not warning investors. Chief Financial Officer Dave Wehner said it was company policy to only give guidance once a quarter. But the earnings report "doesn't jive" with executives' recently upbeat comments, Greenfield later told Reuters. A handful of plaintiffs' lawyers announced Thursday they had begun investigating Zynga for breach of fiduciary duty. Meanwhile, Facebook's executives took a conservative approach on Thursday, declining to offer their own forward-looking predictions. In light of Zynga's bad miss, Wall Street analysts said that the lack of forecasts sapped investor confidence. "The entire social media space may seem like a disaster, but it's perhaps that public markets have yet to see the right stocks. Firms like Groupon, Facebook, and Zynga require very aggressive user acquisition and the Average Revenue Per User is much lower," said Steve Place, a founder of options analytics firm investingwithoptions.com. "However, if we look into different verticals of the social media space there are some decent ideas." He cited real-estate site Zillow Inc, now almost double its IPO price. But on Sand Hill Road, the mood these days is decidedly more subdued, a focus on returning to fundamental value. "We'll see more discipline on private investments," with more focus on the sustainability of any competitive advantage a company has, said Roelof Botha, a partner at Sequoia Capital. "There are private companies that we are investors in that have underlying defensibility and business models for which you do want to stretch on valuation," Botha added. At Bay Partners in Palo Alto, partners have already noticed a certain dialing-back of the swagger with which some entrepreneurs walk into their office. "I feel a little bit of humility, a little bit of reality creep in," said partner Salil Deshpande, whose investments include Buddy Media, which was sold to Salesforce.com for $689 million earlier this year. Early-stage entrepreneurs who a few months ago might have argued their nascent companies were worth $5 million might today accept a valuation of $1 million, he said. Mayfield's Chang expects a hit to companies with what he calls "lumpy" business models -- less predictable, consumer-oriented businesses that rely on advertising and virtual goods, like Facebook and Zynga. Those businesses, he says, are reliant on their popularity with the public, a fickle group. "The scariest is easy-come, easy-go revenue, kind of like Groupon," he said. "It can ramp up quick, but disappear quickly too." (Additional reporting by Angela Moon in New York; Editing By Edwin Chan, Jonathan Weber and Tim Dobbyn) Tech Media Related Quotes and News Company Price Related News Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints   We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (4) Janeallen wrote:   Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Back to top Reuters.com Business Markets World Politics Technology Opinion Money Pictures Videos Site Index Legal Bankruptcy Law California Legal New York Legal Securities Law Support & Contact Support Corrections Connect with Reuters Twitter   Facebook   LinkedIn   RSS   Podcast   Newsletters   Mobile About Privacy Policy Terms of Use AdChoices Copyright Our Flagship financial information platform incorporating Reuters Insider An ultra-low latency infrastructure for electronic trading and data distribution A connected approach to governance, risk and compliance Our next generation legal research platform Our global tax workstation Thomsonreuters.com About Thomson Reuters Investor Relations Careers Contact Us   Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. 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