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See more Images of April Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read Exclusive: China arrests security official on suspicion of spying for U.S. 11:44am EDT What Are 'Bath Salts' And Are They Illegal? 30 May 2012 Court says marriage law discriminates against gay couples 31 May 2012 Job growth seen stepping up in May 12:06am EDT Job growth stumbles, raising pressure on Fed 10:47am EDT Discussed 203 Romney’s birth certificate evokes his father’s controversy 155 Romney tells vets dangerous world demands powerful military 153 Obama honors Dylan, other ”heroes” for cultural impact Watched A look at the UK’s most beautiful face Thu, May 10 2012 Cruise ship crunch Sat, May 26 2012 Something does not compute with layoffs Thu, May 31 2012 Erratic Greek polls fail to unlock vote riddle Tweet Share this Email Print Related News WRAPUP 3-Germans ease austerity pace for Spain, markets in turmoil 11:29am EDT Greek conservatives warn of euro exit nightmare Thu, May 31 2012 Greek pro-bailout party leads leftists in surveys Thu, May 31 2012 EU throws Spain two potential lifelines Wed, May 30 2012 Anti-bailout SYRIZA party in the lead: Greek poll Wed, May 30 2012 Analysis & Opinion The dark flip side of European technocracy European dysfunction chart of the day, Greece vs Germany edition Related Topics World » Greece » By Andrew Osborn and Karolina Tagaris ATHENS | Fri Jun 1, 2012 9:49am EDT ATHENS (Reuters) - Greece's June 17 national election is being cast as make-or-break for its future in the euro and the currency bloc itself, but if you're looking to opinion polls for guidance, think again. With a little over two weeks to go and despite the vote's apparently historic importance, polls have thrown up wildly different scenarios of what the outcome might be. While most polls have given the conservative pro-bailout New Democracy (ND) party a modest lead, other polls have said the radical leftist anti-bailout SYRIZA party is slightly out in front, and some have suggested that support for the two parties is evenly matched. Although the two leading parties are each backed by only about a quarter of the electorate, Greek election rules give an automatic bonus of 50 seats in the 300-seat parliament to the group that places first, meaning even the slightest edge could play a decisive role in determining who next rules Greece. "The polls paint a picture of the really tight race we have ahead of us," Dimitris Mavros, head of the MRB pollster, told Reuters. "The differences are so small and nothing is set in stone. You don't know what will happen at the last minute in such a fragile political landscape." The uncertainty is unsettling markets because the two frontrunners have radically different visions of Greece. ND favors keeping the euro along with the latest 130-billion-euro bailout from international lenders and the austerity measures that go with it, with a few minor tweaks. But SYRIZA says it wants to keep the euro but to renegotiate the rescue package in order to water down harsh austerity measures, something the EU opposes and markets fear. Stefanos Manos, a former finance minister running in the election with a small party said the polls reflected Greeks' own uncertainty at a time of extreme national stress. "It's not the polls that are all over the place but public opinion that's all over the place, and the polls merely reflect that," he said. The gap between the two parties in polls has often been no more than the statistical margin of error of around 2.5 percent. The main reason why the polls have been so contradictory - according to pollsters and politicians - is that the deep financial crisis Greece is living through has cracked its political consensus wide open, creating unprecedented volatility. "The dividing line in politics has changed. A new line has been created: those who are for and those who are against the bailout," said Costas Panagopoulos, head of the ALCO pollster. For decades, ever since a group of army generals lost their grip on power in 1974, Greek voters gave their preference to either the socialist PASOK party or the conservative ND party. But the country's debt crisis and public fury at the chaotic way the two main parties have handled it, changed that. VOLATILITY When a May 6 snap parliamentary election was held, SYRIZA burst into the political mainstream, securing second place. "Six out of ten voters voted for a different party to the one they had voted for two and a half years ago. It was a protest vote," said Panagopoulos. With Greek politics suddenly polarized around a single issue, many people appear to be undecided or changing their minds by the day. "According to our polls 25 percent will vote for a different party from three weeks ago," Panagopoulos said. Mavros, head of the MRB pollster, said decisions may not be made until the last minute. "In the last election, 40 percent decided in the last two weeks and 20 percent decided on the day in the polling booth." The country's dozen or so pollsters - all private companies commissioned by fee-paying clients - say the polls they conduct are subject to rigorous regulation. Each poll must include a minimum of 1,000 voters nationwide and the name of the entity that commissioned the poll must be published along with the full list of questions and answers. Pollsters sometimes come under fire. Many experts believe polls themselves can influence voters, which is why the Greek government bans their publication two weeks ahead of the vote. "The bottom line is who pays for and orders the poll has quite a bit of impact on what the questions are," Theodore Couloumbis, a political analyst, told Reuters. He said people tended to vote for or against parties they believed had a real chance of winning, which could depend on polls. A ban on the publication of any new polls enters into force on Saturday. Public prosecutors launched an investigation into news websites that published polls after the cutoff date in the previous election. On Friday, the conservative Kathimerini daily newspaper, which had just released a poll putting SYRIZA in the lead, published a front page editorial defending its polls. "Publishing the polls cannot depend on whether or not we like the result," it wrote. SYRIZA itself has complained about the erratic polling, saying it had concerns about the way surveys were conducted and wanted government checks in place to ensure they were objective. (Writing by Andrew Osborn) World Greece Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (1) scythe wrote: Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Back to top Reuters.com Business Markets World Politics Technology Opinion Money Pictures Videos Site Index Legal Bankruptcy Law California Legal New York Legal Securities Law Support & Contact Support Corrections Connect with Reuters Twitter Facebook LinkedIn RSS Podcast Newsletters Mobile About Privacy Policy Terms of Use AdChoices Copyright Our Flagship financial information platform incorporating Reuters Insider An ultra-low latency infrastructure for electronic trading and data distribution A connected approach to governance, risk and compliance Our next generation legal research platform Our global tax workstation Thomsonreuters.com About Thomson Reuters Investor Relations Careers Contact Us Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. 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