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Sunday, 18 September 2011 - China's growing might adds urgency to Taiwan arms calls |
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      Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Home Business Business Home Economy Technology Media Small Business Green Business Legal Deals Earnings Summits Business Video Markets Markets Home U.S. Markets European Markets Asian Markets Global Market Data Indices M&A Stocks Bonds Currencies Commodities Futures Funds peHUB World World Home U.S. Brazil China Euro Zone Japan Mexico Russia Afghan Journal Africa Journal India Insight Global News Journal Pakistan: Now or Never? 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Warning: Graphic content  Full Article  Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read NTSB probes plane's tail in Reno air race crash | 1:23am EDT NTSB probes Nevada air race crash that killed nine | 17 Sep 2011 Obama to propose "Buffett Tax" on millionaires 17 Sep 2011 Geithner's "succinct" message irks Europeans 16 Sep 2011 Obama to propose "Buffett tax" on millionaires 17 Sep 2011 Discussed 160 Al Gore in 24-hour broadcast to convert climate skeptics 137 Number of poor hit record 46 million in 2010 61 Geithner’s ”succinct” message irks Europeans Watched Photos capture air show crash Sat, Sep 17 2011 Amvid of deadly air show crash Sat, Sep 17 2011 Chavez to Cuba for more chemo Sat, Sep 17 2011 China's growing might adds urgency to Taiwan arms calls Tweet Share this Email Print Related News U.S. to announce F-16 upgrade for Taiwan: lobby group Fri, Sep 16 2011 UPDATE 3-US to announce F-16 upgrade for Taiwan-lobby group Fri, Sep 16 2011 Insight: Looming U.S. decision on Taiwan risks China rift Fri, Sep 16 2011 Senate panel backs freeze in Pentagon base budget Tue, Sep 13 2011 China paper tells U.S. not to play with fire over Taiwan Fri, Sep 9 2011 Analysis & Opinion China’s friendly blackmail of EU may do the trick China’s war on terror alienates Xinjiang’s Muslim Uighurs Related Topics World » Politics » China » Aerospace & Defense » Army soldiers demonstrate anti-air weaponry to Taiwan's Defence Minister Kao Hua-chu during a military exercise in Penghu in this handout picture taken January 29, 2010. Credit: Reuters/Taiwan Military News Agency/Handout By Ben Blanchard and Jonathan Standing BEIJING/TAIPEI | Sat Sep 17, 2011 10:43pm EDT BEIJING/TAIPEI (Reuters) - China's growing military strength, from stealth jets to aircraft carriers and anti-satellite missiles, has shifted the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait to Beijing's advantage, and this will not be materially affected by an imminent arms deal with Taiwan. The duration of any potential conflict between China and Taiwan will be a matter of days, not weeks or months, analysts and experts say. The Obama administration is expected to notify formally Congress next week on an arms package including F-16 upgrades for the self-ruled island China claims as its own, but not the new fighters Taipei wanted. Beijing, meanwhile, has shown no sign of ending an arms build-up that is strategically focused on Taiwan, and analysts say the arms deal will do little to alter the balance. China's military advances have continued despite a warming of ties across the narrow Taiwan Strait that followed the election of Ma Ying-jeou as president of the democratic island in 2008, and his signing of landmark trade and economic pacts. Taiwan's military can do little to disguise its unease. "There have also been no signs of adjustments to military deployments facing our country," Taiwan Defense Minister Kao Hua-chu wrote in July in the foreword to its annual white paper. "We must build forces that are as impregnable as a rock." The Defense Department's annual assessment to Congress last month warned that China "remains focused on developing the pre-requisite military capabilities to eventually settle the dispute on Beijing's terms." Taiwan once held the military edge against a backward Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA). Today, experts generally agree that in the event of conflict, Taiwan would have at most only a few days to hold off China and get help from outside, most likely the United States, if they were to stand any chance. "No one's really asking the question, could Taiwan beat China in an all-out conflict," said Matt Durnin, a researcher with the World Security Institute. "The question they're asking is whether or not Taiwan could survive long enough in a conflict it would be able to recruit other countries to support it politically or militarily." NO COMPROMISE China has not compromised on its long-term demand that Taiwan is sovereign Chinese territory and must eventually come under its control. Beijing's military strategy, despite the warming of ties, remains focused on securing Taiwan, wrote security analyst Dean Cheng of the Heritage Foundation in Washington. "Coupled with limitations on U.S. weapons sales, Taiwan is falling behind," Cheng said. "Worse, the steady modernization of the PLA has not been matched by Taiwan." Taiwan in the past was able to rely on China's inability to project power across the strait which separates them, its own technological superiority and the help of the U.S. armed forces in the event of conflict, who would easily outclass China. "China's increasingly modern weapons and platforms threaten to negate many of those factors upon which Taiwan has depended," the Pentagon said, pointing to China's rapidly modernizing navy and air force and new, formidable ballistic missiles. Unlike China, Taiwan has no nuclear weapons, and only a small number of Patriot missiles to defend against any missile attack. Meanwhile, China's military spending spree continues. Beijing in March said it would boost defense spending by 12.7 percent in 2011 to 600 billion yuan ($94 billion), marking a return to double-digit growth. China downplays its spending, saying it is upgrading its outmoded forces and that its plans do not pose a threat to any country. It also notes its defense budget is far lower than that of the United States. But President Hu Jintao has made modernizing the navy a priority. China is upgrading its destroyers and frigates to provide capability to sail further and strike harder, and is developing fearsome anti-ship ballistic missiles to take out U.S. carriers. Last month, China's first aircraft carrier made its maiden run. Taiwan, which for years relied on better equipment and better training, has been hobbled by the refusal of any country aside from the United States to sell it weapons, fearing an angry response from China. The advantages it once maintained in the air slipped away over the past decade as China modernized. Despite Taiwan's public calls for weaponry, defense spending has not kept pace. The NT$300 billion ($10 billion) earmarked for this year is just 2.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Ma had promised in his 2008 election campaign to raise that to 3 percent. AGING FIGHTERS The aging of Taiwan's fleet of fighters came into stark focus this week with the crash of two U.S.-built F-5 fighters, which it first put into service in the 1970s and still uses for training and reconnaissance missions. The backbone of Taiwan's air force is made up of some 140 U.S.-made F-16s, about 60 French-built Mirage 2000s and about 130 Ching-kuo Indigenous Defense Fighters. Jets lost in accidents over the years are nearly impossible to replace. This has spurred Taiwan's requests that the United States sell it 66 new F-16 C/D jets, a more advanced version of the ones they already operate. The Taiwan-U.S. Business Council, which had lobbied for the sale of advanced weapons, said on Friday Obama had instead approved an upgrade for the existing fleet. Without new jets, experts say, Taiwan would not last long in a conflict. Training is the air force's strong suit, but experts say that a well-planned early Chinese missile strike could take out most Taiwan air base runways and leave the island's aircraft, hidden in fortified or mountain bunkers, trapped on the ground. If the air force is old, Taiwan's navy makes it look like a paragon of modernity. It has four submarines -- two of which date from World War Two and still have some of their original brass fittings -- compared with more than 30 for China, including a few of which are nuclear powered. ($1 = 29.615 Taiwan dollars) ($1 = 6.392 Chinese yuan) (Additional reporting by Paul Eckert in Washington, Editing by Brian Rhoads and Raju Gopalakrishnan) World Politics China Aerospace & Defense Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints   We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (1) auger wrote: If the Taiwanese are doomed to live in the shadow of a much larger owner, it is destined by their geographical location and their past. Trying to emulate Israel, with US assistance and weapons, would be a fool’s game here. Sep 18, 2011 1:50am EDT  --  Report as abuse See All Comments » Add Your Comment Social Stream (What's this?)   Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Back to top Reuters.com Business Markets World Politics Technology Opinion Money Pictures Videos Site Index Mobile Legal Bankruptcy Law California Legal New York Legal Securities Law Support & Contact Contact Us Advertise With Us Connect with Reuters Twitter   Facebook   LinkedIn   RSS   Newsletters About Privacy Policy Terms of Use Our Flagship financial information platform incorporating Reuters Insider An ultra-low latency infrastructure for electronic trading and data distribution A connected approach to governance, risk and compliance Our next generation legal research platform Our global tax workstation Thomsonreuters.com About Thomson Reuters Investor Relations Careers Contact Us   Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. 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