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Saturday, 18 June 2011 - ANALYSIS: Yemen crisis puts Saudis in powerbroker's bind |
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    Edition: U.S. Article Comments (0) Full Focus Photos of the week Our top photos from the past week.  Full Article  Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read Afghanistan's Karzai confirms U.S. in talks with Taliban 6:03am EDT Oracle seeks up to $6.1 billion in Google lawsuit 17 Jun 2011 Tired Gay succumbs to Dix in 200 meters 03 Jul 2010 Spam clogging Amazon's Kindle self-publishing 16 Jun 2011 ".brands" approach with Internet name shake-up 17 Jun 2011 Discussed 72 Republicans to debate, with Romney the frontrunner 47 Weiner tells friends he will resign: NY Times 42 IMF cuts U.S. growth forecast, warns of crisis Watched Airbus' view of flying in the future Mon, Jun 13 2011 Hefner, fiancee split; Schwarzenegger mistress talks Wed, Jun 15 2011 Cyber warfare heats up 2:54am EDT ANALYSIS: Yemen crisis puts Saudis in powerbroker's bind Tweet Share this Email Print Related News Yemen opposition shrugs off Gulf mediation offer Wed, Jun 15 2011 Gulf states vow to seek end to Yemeni crisis Tue, Jun 14 2011 Yemen arrests suspects over attack on Saleh Mon, Jun 13 2011 Yemen awaits possible Saleh return after surgery Thu, Jun 9 2011 Fighting turns southern Yemen town into "hell" Wed, Jun 8 2011 Analysis & Opinion Hungary’s revolution and the Arab Spring Ayman al-Zawahri: Suburban doctor who became chief of al Qaeda Related Topics World » Saudi Arabia » Yemen » A boy flashes the victory sign during a demonstration to demand the ouster of Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh in the southern city of Taiz June 18, 2011. Credit: Reuters/Khaled Abdullah By Joseph Logan DUBAI | Sat Jun 18, 2011 10:23am EDT DUBAI (Reuters) - Fearing both civil war and sweeping political reform as results of the crisis in Yemen, Saudi Arabia is struggling with its role as regional kingmaker. While publicly backing Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, still in a Saudi hospital after being wounded in fighting in the capital Sanaa after months of protests aimed at ousting him, Riyadh has also tried to broker a succession on its own terms. That has entailed forging relationships with tribal chieftains, politicians and army officers long cultivated by the Saudis as counterweights to Saleh's 33-year rule, but who are too many and too fractious to provide a ready-made successor. And the very process of negotiating a political exit for a neighboring ruler it no longer supports has raised talk of representative government, feared by the kingdom that is the world's No. 1 oil exporter. "It (Saudi Arabia) will try to stop a move to any real democratic system in the country," political analyst Ahmed al-Zurqa said. "This is the problem." The Saudi-dominated Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) mediated three aborted deals with Yemeni opposition parties under which Saleh would step down and be spared prosecution for misconduct including bloody crackdowns on protesters who took to the streets as pro-democracy activism swept the Arab world. Each time, Saleh backed out at the last minute. His last demurral, in May, triggered two weeks of fighting with the al-Hashed tribal confederation led by the al-Ahmar family, culminating in a June 3 attack on Saleh's palace. That may have sealed Saleh's fate for the Saudis, said Sheila Carapico, a Yemen expert and political science professor at the American University of Cairo. "We don't even know if he'll be well enough to go back (from Saudi Arabia), but apart from that, I think they've lost faith in him," she said. SON, NEPHEWS NOT JUMPING SHIP Saudi and Yemeni state media still stress Riyadh's relationship with Saleh but the flirtation with his enemies is evident. Sadeq al-Ahmar, a leading al-Hashed figure, said after a round of clashes which devastated parts of the capital that he was keeping a truce only out of respect for Saudi King Abdullah. Opposition parties ranging from socialists to Islamists of both the Sunni and Zaydi Shi'ite sects, and which signed off on the GCC deals, lost credibility with "Arab Spring"-inspired youths who have emerged as a separate Yemeni constituency. "We believed, and still believe, that the Gulf states do not want the youth revolution to succeed in Yemen, so that its effects won't spread to the other states of the region," said democracy activist Omar Abdelqader. Those opposition parties have participated in negotiations with Yemen's acting leader, Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, in which the absent president's fate was not broached. U.S. diplomats helped broker those talks. But with Washington apparently preparing to pursue attacks on al Qaeda in Yemen with more use of CIA-operated drones, analysts believe it may have satisfied its real needs in Yemen, and will leave kingmaking to the Saudis. "I don't think the U.S. has a policy on Yemen," Carapico said. "One part is we back the Saudis and whatever they want is good enough for us, and then the other part of it is we really, really don't like al Qaeda." The balance of forces on the ground suggests no one contender will simplify the task of succession by emerging stronger than the others. Though Saleh's ruling party suffered high-profile defections, several of his relatives -- including a son, Brigadier-General Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh, who leads the Republican Guard -- retain command and seem to have achieved military parity with the president's enemies. "I don't think you're going to see many more people jumping ship at the moment," said James Spencer, a defense and political risk consultant. "Saleh's son and nephews have hung on ... Ahmed Ali has made it clear he's not going to go meekly." (This story corrects the ranking of Saudi Arabia to world's No. 1 oil exporter) (Additional reporting by Mohammed Ghobari in Sanaa, Andrew Hammond and Isabel Coles in Dubai; Editing by Dan Williams) World Saudi Arabia Yemen Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints   We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (0) Be the first to comment on reuters.com. Add yours using the box above. Social Stream (What's this?) © Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters Editorial Editions: Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom United States Reuters Contact Us Advertise With Us Help Journalism Handbook Archive Site Index Video Index Reader Feedback   Mobile Newsletters RSS Podcasts Widgets Your View Analyst Research Thomson Reuters Copyright Disclaimer Privacy Professional Products Professional Products Support Financial Products About Thomson Reuters Careers Online Products Acquisitions Monthly Buyouts Venture Capital Journal International Financing Review Project Finance International PEhub.com PE Week FindLaw Super Lawyers Attorney Rating Service Reuters on Facebook Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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