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China raises fuel prices as economy steams ahead
By ELAINE KURTENBACH,AP Business Writer -
Thursday, April 15
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SHANGHAI – Economic growth and inflation data due out Thursday will show whether China's balancing effort to keep growth fast and prices under control is working _ or if more needs to be done to cool a stimulus-fueled boom.
Beijing raised fuel prices Wednesday in a show of confidence about its ability to keep inflation in check. But analysts are watching Thursday's announcement of first-quarter gross domestic product for signs an interest rate hike or more drastic action is needed to prevent overheating.
"We believe Beijing now needs to take another small step to exit from its stimulus policies," Stephen Green, an economist for Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai. "There are a number of reasons to be concerned that a nastier bout of inflation is in the works."
Also Wednesday, the government reported that housing prices in 70 major cities rose 11.7 percent in March from a year earlier _ adding to alarm over a potentially dangerous bubble in real estate prices and reinforcing expectations of an interest rate hike.
Chinese leaders are striving to keep growth strong, so far with stunning results: the economy expanded by 10.7 percent in the final quarter of 2009 and analysts expect the January-to-March rate to have risen to nearly 12 percent.
But planners face a challenge in checking inflation and curbing reckless, stimulus-fueled spending on unneeded factories and other assets that could leave a mountain of bad debts.
Inflation rose to 2.7 percent in February compared with a year earlier, close to the government's official target of 3 percent for the year.
The Cabinet's planning agency acknowledged the 4 percent to 4.5 percent price hikes Wednesday for gasoline, diesel and other fuel would add to inflation. But it said the direct impact is estimated at only 0.07 percent and vowed to prevent "chain reaction price adjustments."
"Policymakers seem to think that inflation is still well under control and they seized the opportunity to raise fuel prices, as they expect it will not harm the economy," said Qiu Xiaofeng, a petroleum industry analyst at China Merchant Securities, in Shanghai.
Last year, the government raised prices eight times as it reformed its pricing system, seeking to keep refiners running at high enough capacity to meet demand as the economy recovers.
Beijing reported its first monthly trade deficit in six years for March as imports surged, reflecting China's faster recovery from the global crisis than its key trading partners. Adjusted for inflation, though, the trade surplus expanded in January-March.
"We see that export recovery is trotting along largely as envisaged, with exports to all major markets recovering nicely," said UBS economist Tao Wang.
Lending by Chinese banks fell 43 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier as the government tightened credit controls while trying to wind down its stimulus.
Prices for farm produce have fallen for seven weeks, suggesting a cooling of increases in food costs, a key component of the consumer price index.
Regulators have renewed efforts to assess risks from loans and each day brings fresh reports of projects found to be unprofitable or ill-conceived.
A high-speed rail service from Beijing to southeastern China's Fujian province was shut down after just two months because passengers shunned it in favor of cheaper air fares.
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