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Saturday, 4 June 2011 - Peru's Humala edges ahead in polls; markets nervous |
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    Read more with google mobile : Peru's Humala edges ahead in polls; markets nervous |

    Edition: U.S. Article Comments (0) Slideshow Full Focus Photos of the week Our top photos from the past week.   Full Article  Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read "Dr. Death," Jack Kevorkian, dies at 83 4:46pm EDT Virginia bus crash driver charged with manslaughter 3:49pm EDT Cooling employment casts shadow on recovery | 4:21pm EDT Felix Salmon: Jobs fail 12:46pm EDT Valedictorian fights judge's ban on graduation prayer 02 Jun 2011 Discussed 77 150 economists back U.S. Republicans in debt fight 44 Romney charges that Obama has ”failed America” 40 Debt-limit hike fails in House in symbolic vote Watched Scientists revive ancient spider in stunning 3D detail Tue, May 24 2011 Massive Australian waterspout caught on film Mon, May 30 2011 Facing a cyber threat 1:03am EDT Peru's Humala edges ahead in polls; markets nervous Tweet Share this Email Print Factbox Recent polls in Peru's presidential race 3:46pm EDT Analysis & Opinion The war on drugs and a milestone critique Japan wasting opportunities afforded by crisis Related Topics World » 1 / 2 Peru's presidential candidate Ollanta Humala greets supporters at the end his closing campaign rally in Lima, June 2, 2011. Credit: Reuters/Pilar Olivares Fri Jun 3, 2011 3:46pm EDT (Note: Election law forbids publication of polls in Peru a week prior to June 5 voting) By Patricia Velez and Teresa Cespedes LIMA (Reuters) - Left-winger Ollanta Humala is within striking distance of winning Peru's presidential election, unsettling financial markets on Friday as investors worry he will impose tighter state control over the economy. Two polls obtained by Reuters showed Humala leading by between 1 and 3.6 percentage points going into Sunday's election run-off, while another gave his right-wing rival, lawmaker Keiko Fujimori, a 1.2 point lead. Peru's stocks and currency have swung wildly as Humala narrowed in on, and even edged ahead of, market-favorite Fujimori in polls -- all of which show technical ties. Investors worry Humala will implement interventionist policies, boost social spending and undermine fiscal stability in one of the world's fastest-growing economies. Peru has grown nearly as fast as China over the past few years but a third of Peruvians still live in poverty. "If Humala wins there's going to be a sell-off," said Roberto Melzi of Barclays in New York. "It's a credibility problem around his persona." Stocks were down 2.9 percent on Friday while the sol currency was almost flat at 2.759 per dollar. Votes from Peruvians overseas could prove crucial, and markets are bracing for the prospect of a recount that could take days. Fujimori's father Alberto opened Peru to free trade and slayed hyperinflation while he was president in the 1990s, but he was later sent to prison for corruption and for using death squads to crack down on left-wing insurgents. Humala, who as an army commander led a bloodless revolt in 2000 to demand the elder Fujimori step down, says financial markets and corporate executives have no reason to fear him and that he has shed his radical past. Humala, who narrowly lost the 2006 election, has sought to win over moderate voters by toning down fiery anti-capitalist rhetoric and railing against the 36-year-old Fujimori for having worked in her father's discredited government. Stocks fell 6 percent on Wednesday before bouncing back on Thursday as competing polls gave an edge first to Humala and then to Fujimori. The volatility comes just as Peru's stock market has tied up with peers in Chile and Colombia in a bid to compete with Brazil, Latin America's economic and investment powerhouse. PROMISES OF STABILITY Humala reiterated promises on Friday to run a balanced budget and appoint experienced technocrats to his cabinet while blaming speculators for market turbulence. "They obey dark interests and want to fish in troubled waters to try to generate fear and make more money," the 48-year-old told Lima's foreign press club. He decried what he called Alberto Fujimori's dictatorship of the 1990s, and promised to raise the minimum wage, ensure free healthcare for all and guarantee pensions. Humala has sought to cast himself in the vein of Brazil's center-left former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and has distanced himself from his one-time political mentor, Venezuela's firebrand leftist leader Hugo Chavez. He has vowed to respect foreign investors who plan to pour $40 billion into mining and oil projects over the next decade. Like Fujimori, he wants a windfall tax on the vast mining sector. He also says the state must vigorously regulate the economy and exert more control over "strategic" natural resources. Still, he has ruled out taking over private firms. Markets are wary and prefer Fujimori, who has warned that Humala could roll back free-market reforms that were first implemented by her father and contributed to stability after years of economic chaos and guerrilla wars. Peru's five-year credit default swaps rose 6.3 basis points to 150 basis points on Friday, driving up the cost of insuring the country's global bonds against default. While Humala and Fujimori are from opposite ends of the political spectrum, both have criticized the scant trickle-down of wealth in a major metals producer enjoying a global commodities rally. "Keiko means economic continuity, while Ollanta is planning another model that will mean we lose investments and suffer economically," said 41-year-old security guard Eduard Venegas, as he listened to Fujimori's closing speech at a rally in Lima that was smaller than Humala's. "For me it comes down to economics, not politics." (With reporting by Caroline Stauffer and Alejandro Lifschitz in Lima and Manuela Badawy in New York; Writing by Simon Gardner and Terry Wade; Editing by Kieran Murray) World Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints   We welcome comments that advance the story directly or with relevant tangential information. We try to block comments that use offensive language, all capital letters or appear to be spam, and we review comments frequently to ensure they meet our standards. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. Comments (0) Be the first to comment on reuters.com. Add yours using the box above. Social Stream (What's this?) © Copyright 2011 Thomson Reuters Editorial Editions: Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom United States Reuters Contact Us Advertise With Us Help Journalism Handbook Archive Site Index Video Index Reader Feedback   Mobile Newsletters RSS Podcasts Widgets Your View Analyst Research Thomson Reuters Copyright Disclaimer Privacy Professional Products Professional Products Support Financial Products About Thomson Reuters Careers Online Products Acquisitions Monthly Buyouts Venture Capital Journal International Financing Review Project Finance International PEhub.com PE Week FindLaw Super Lawyers Attorney Rating Service Reuters on Facebook Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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