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Japan's September export growth slowest this year
AFP - Monday, October 25
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Japan's September export growth slowest this year
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TOKYO (AFP) - – Japan's exports rose at the slowest pace this year in September, data showed Monday, as a strong yen and easing growth overseas continue to threaten a faltering recovery.
While the data was better than expected, it still pointed to increasing fears that Japan's economy is facing a slowdown after the government last week downgraded its view of the economy for the first time since February 2009.
The Japanese currency has in recent weeks traded at 15-year highs, hammering the competitiveness of the crucial export sector, despite a yen-selling intervention by authorities last month.
Japan's exports in September rose 14.4 percent on-year to 5.84 trillion yen (72 billion dollars), buoyed by increases in shipments of automobiles, ships and steel products.
Markets had expected a rise of 7.9 percent, according to a Dow Jones Newswires poll of economists. But the figure was below August's 15.5 percent rise and demonstrated the slowest pace of export growth since December 2009.
Imports grew 9.9 percent to 5.05 trillion yen, the data showed.
While a September trade surplus gain of 54 percent showed Japan's rebound from the plunge in exports triggered by the financial crisis, the data pointed to future weakness, said Taro Saito, a senior economist at NLI Research Institute.
"The weak export trend will continue for the time being," said Saito. "The yen will continue to be strong at least for the next several months."
Analysts warn that risks to demand remain as the effects of stimulus measures wane and world leaders embrace tighter fiscal policies to help rebalance a global economy knocked off its axis by the financial crisis.
"The rebound in exports is already running out of steam," noted consultancy firm Capital Economics in a research note. "With global demand growth also slowing, the boost from net trade will fade away."
Exports to Japan's key trading partner China continued to moderate in September, rising 10.3 percent in September to 1.081 trillion yen after climbing 18.5 percent in August to 1.048 trillion yen.
A strong yen not only makes Japan's growth-driving exports more expensive but also erodes companies' overseas profits when repatriated.
Toyota Motor is expected to revise its dollar forecast for the second half of the business year to March from 90 yen to 80 yen, which would lower its earnings by 150 billion yen in the year's second half alone, the Yomiuri daily reported Monday.
Japan has reduced its official interest rate to almost zero and last month intervened in the foreign exchange market for the first time in six years to sell the yen after it hit a 15-year high against the dollar.
But the moves failed to halt the Japanese currency's ascent.
International tensions have flared over the issue of currencies as a wave of speculative money makes Asian goods more expensive on global markets, prompting government moves to safeguard exports amid fears of a currency devaluation battle.
But with a large trade and current account surplus, Japan has a relatively weak case to lower its currency to boost exports, some analysts argue.
Data Monday showed Japan's trade surplus for the first six months to September was up 83 percent on-year, the finance ministry said.
In September the surplus rose to 797 billion yen (9.8 billion dollars), higher than market expectations of 712 billion yen.
Finance ministers and central bank governors from the group of 20 top economies meeting over the weekend in the South Korean city of Gyeongju agreed on a framework to tackle large current account surpluses and reduce global trade imbalances, but shied away from specific targets.
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