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Edition: U.S. Article Comments (0) Save Email Print Reprints Most Popular Most Shared Tired Gay succumbs to Dix in 200 meters 03 Jul 2010 Democratic senator's lead shrinks in California: poll 08 Jul 2010 California transit cop verdict sparks looting 2:32am EDT North American concert sales plunge in first half 08 Jul 2010 UPDATE 1-US 30-yr mortgage rate drops to new record low 08 Jul 2010 Viagra-popping seniors lead the pack for STDs 06 Jul 2010 Netanyahu bodyguards' guns go missing on U.S. visit | Video 07 Jul 2010 Germans shell-shocked by oracle octopus 06 Jul 2010 LeBron James joins the Heat in search of elusive title 12:17am EDT BP slows Alaska offshore oil drill plan 08 Jul 2010 Tired Gay succumbs to Dix in 200 meters 03 Jul 2010 Viagra-popping seniors lead the pack for STDs 06 Jul 2010 Democratic senator's lead shrinks in California: poll 08 Jul 2010 California transit cop verdict sparks looting 2:32am EDT Aircraft completes first solar-powered night flight | Video 08 Jul 2010 Netanyahu bodyguards' guns go missing on U.S. visit | Video 07 Jul 2010 Double dip fears sends investors to cash: EPFR 08 Jul 2010 BP slows Alaska offshore oil drill plan 08 Jul 2010 Analysis: Money managers see no double-dip 08 Jul 2010 Google's Schmidt undaunted by Apple or Facebook 08 Jul 2010 Japan PM party may miss vote target Digg This Tweet This Share on LinkedIn Share on Facebook Factbox FACTBOX-Key numbers to watch in Japan upper house poll Wed, Jul 7 2010 Related News Japan PM's party may miss election goal by far-media Thu, Jul 8 2010 RPT-SCENARIOS-Japan policy at risk if DPJ misses election target Wed, Jul 7 2010 Japan PM's party may fall far short of poll target Wed, Jul 7 2010 Small Japan parties vie for big role after election Wed, Jul 7 2010 Related Topics World » Japan » By Yoko Kubota and Linda Sieg TOKYO | Fri Jul 9, 2010 1:58am EDT TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Noato Kan's Democratic Party looked increasingly likely to suffer a sharp setback in a weekend election, surveys showed on Friday, putting his job at risk and hampering efforts to curb a huge public debt. But a senior executive of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) said Kan -- Japan's fifth premier in three years -- would stay in his job regardless of the party's showing in Sunday's election for parliament's upper house. The DPJ, which swept to power just last year promising change, will almost certainly run the government, however many seats it wins because it controls the powerful lower house. But it needs a majority in the upper chamber to avoid policy deadlock in reducing a big public debt. Surveys by the Nikkei, Yomiuri and Asahi newspapers showed that the DPJ would likely win around 50 or even fewer seats of the 121 up for grabs in the 242-member chamber -- well short of Kan's target of the 54 seats the party has up for re-election. That would deprive the DPJ and its tiny coalition partner, the pro-spending People's New Party, of a majority in the upper house. The Democrats would be forced to seek new allies, hampering the government's ability to forge ahead with the fiscal reform that Kan has put at the heart of his campaign. "Kan has failed to get voters' minds off what a mess the DPJ has made of being in power," said Columbia University professor Gerry Curtis. "They won't be able to get anything done. It will be political maneuvering for months to come." The DPJ's current coalition partner opposes raising the sales tax any time soon, as do some potential allies. Other opposition parties agree a hike is inevitable but would probably be reluctant to help out the rival DPJ, which has not yet mapped out any detailed tax reform proposals. The Democrats, in power for the first time, promised to cut waste and focus spending on consumers, but saw their support crumble due to policy chaos and funding scandals. Party support rebounded after Kan, a 63-year-old former grassroots activist, took over from his indecisive predecessor Yukio Hatoyama last month. It later fell back after he floated a possible doubling of the 5 percent sales tax to curb public debt. KAN COULD FACE CHALLENGE A showing of fewer than 50 seats would leave Kan vulnerable to a challenge from powerbroker Ichiro Ozawa -- a critic of his sales tax proposal -- ahead of a September party leadership vote. But few expect Kan to quit without a fight, and Kyodo news agency quoted Democratic Party Secretary-General Yukio Edano as saying the premier would stay on regardless of the poll outcome. The Japanese government bond market had rallied last week in part on fiscal reform hopes. The rally has since fizzled on expectations the DPJ would fall well short of its election goal, although many expect that debate on a possible sales tax rise will persist now that Kan has raised the long taboo-topic. If the ruling party fails to reach its target, yields would likely rise, said Shinji Nomura, chief fixed-income strategist at Nikko Cordial Securities. The Asahi newspaper said the DPJ could win fewer than 50 seats, but gave a range of 42 to 57, reflecting close races in many districts and a hefty chunk of voters still undecided. "I had a lot of hopes for Kan, but the way he brought up the sales tax idea was really bad," said Toshimitsu Kinjo, 54, who works at small publishing firm and has yet to make up his mind. "As they keep saying in the media, there are other things that should be done first," added Kinjo, who said he had voted for the DPJ last year, but was now undecided. "Kan is a more practical politician than Hatoyama and I thought he could run the government well, but then he came up with the sales tax talk." Political parties have also struggled to grab voter interest in Japan's second national election in less than a year, with a betting scandal hitting the national sport of sumo, the World Cup soccer tournament and even heavy rain competing for attention. Media surveys showed that both the small pro-reform Your Party and the New Komeito, which partnered with the Liberal Democratic Party until its ouster last year, could win around 10 seats, making them attractive potential allies. The leaders of both parties have ruled out an alliance with the DPJ, but analysts say they might change their tune later. The upper house can block bills other than treaties and budgets and the current coalition lacks the two-thirds lower house majority that would let it override the upper chamber. In the latest sign that the Democrats were struggling, the Nikkei survey showed their lead over the opposition LDP had shrunk, with 32 percent of respondents planning to vote for the DPJ -- down three points -- against 22 percent for the LDP and 11 percent for the Your Party. Voter support for Kan's government also fell five points to 45 percent in the Nikkei poll, a 23 percent drop from his initial rating after taking office last month. (Additional reporting by Shinichi Saoshiro; Editing by Ron Popeski) World Japan Add a Comment *We welcome comments that advance the story directly or with relevant tangential information. We try to block comments that use offensive language or appear to be spam and review comments frequently to ensure they meet our standards. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. © Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters Editorial Editions: Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom United States Reuters Contact Us Advertise With Us Help Journalism Handbook Archive Site Index Video Index Reader Feedback Analyst Research Mobile Newsletters RSS Podcasts Widgets Your View Labs Thomson Reuters Copyright Disclaimer Privacy Professional Products Professional Products Support Financial Products About Thomson Reuters Careers Online Products Acquisitions Monthly Buyouts Venture Capital Journal International Financing Review Project Finance International PEhub.com PE Week FindLaw Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. 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