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Singapore PM: 2008 growth below forecast, grim outlook
Reuters - 1 hour 12 minutes ago
By Kevin Lim and Saeed Azhar
SINGAPORE, Dec 31 - Singapore's prime minister said on Wednesday the economy grew a worse-than-expected 1.5 percent in 2008, indicating gross domestic product may have fallen close to 10 percent in the last quarter on an annualised basis.
The prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, said the government will introduce measures to help the economy, currently in recession, in its 2009 budget due to be announced on Jan. 22, with an emphasis on protecting jobs.
"The outlook is highly uncertain," Lee said in a New Year message to the nation. "At each stage of this crisis, events have turned out worse than the experts predicted."
"As a small, open economy, Singapore cannot avoid being hit... The fall in worldwide demand has hit our exports, our tourism sector, and our broader economy."
The 1.5 percent economic growth figure for 2008 cited by Lee meant the economy likely contracted by close to 10 percent during the fourth quarter on an annualised seasonally adjusted basis, estimates by David Cohen of Action Economics showed.
From a year ago, the economy probably contracted in the fourth quarter by about 2.1 from a year ago, he said.
Singapore had said previously it expected 2008 economic growth to come in around 2.5 percent, and has forecast 2009 gross domestic product to be in a range of minus 1 percent to growth of 2 percent.
Singapore will report fourth-quarter GDP estimates on Friday that are expected to show the economy contracted for the third straight quarter as the global downturn took its toll on the country's manufacturing and financial sectors.
Singapore last reported three consecutive quarters of decline in the first nine months of 2001 when its trade-dependent economy was hit by the bursting of the dotcom bubble.
"Given how quickly the economic situation has deteriorated indicates they may have to revise the 2009 forecast to a bigger contraction," said Song Seng Wun, an economist at CIMB.
A Reuters poll conducted before the prime minister's speech suggested the economy shrank at a 3.4 percent rate in the fourth quarter from the previous three months on a seasonally adjusted and annualised basis.
From a year ago, fourth-quarter GDP was forecast to have fallen 0.4 percent, bringing full-year growth to 2 percent, down sharply from growth of 7.7 percent in 2007, the poll showed. [ID:nSIN417634]
Lee warned that the global recession will not be followed by a quick economic rebound.
"We must therefore prepare for a difficult year ahead, and especially the first half of 2009. Our economy will probably contract further," he said.
PROTECTING JOBS
Lee said the government will introduce measures to help the economy in its 2009 budget that will be announced on Jan. 22.
"The emphasis is still to protect jobs. We will do more to help viable companies to stay afloat and continue to employ their workers. We will introduce measures to help them with their business costs, including rental and wage bills."
"We are also studying further financing support for companies," he added.
CIMB's Song said he expects the government will be "fairly aggressive" in the budget next month to help households and businesses cushion the impact of a global slowdown. (Reporting by Kevin Lim and Saeed Azhar; editing by Neil Fullick)
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