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ECB chief Trichet does not exclude January rate cut: report
AFP - 55 minutes ago
FRANKFURT (AFP) - - European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet appeared on Tuesday to allow for a January interest rate cut by stressing that inflation should not fall much below two percent.
But as usual, the ECB chief responded prudently to questions in an interview with the German financial daily Boersen Zeitung, saying: "We are concentrating at present on the impact of our previous decisions."
His comments were to appear on Wednesday but were released in advance.
The ECB has cut its main lending rate in three rapid fire moves since early October to the present level of 2.50 percent, but with the eurozone economy mired in recession, analysts expect yet another cut on January 15.
Several bank directors and governors, including Trichet, have sought to dampen such speculation, but with inflation falling much faster then expected, the threat of deflation has recently begun to surface.
"We have already cut rates by 175 basis points within a very short span of time," Trichet noted. "The impulse is, at the moment, far from having been fully transmitted to the economy."
He nonetheless appeared to temper previous statements that suggested a January rate cut was not under consideration, telling the German newspaper: "As I always stress, we are never pre-committed and we always do what is necessary to solidly anchor inflationary expectations in the medium term."
At a press conference following the last rate cut in December, Trichet had appeared to suggest the ECB would mark a pause before lowering its benchmark lending rates further.
Bank of America senior economist Holger Schmieding said Trichet's comment on inflation and recent decreases "opens the path to a rate cut in January without pre-announcing it.
"He seems to explain the December press conference message that they've done a lot and don't intend to do more in January but then comes the last thing, never precommit and do what's necessary."
Trichet was somewhat more precise with Boersen Zeitung when he explained that a rate hike in July was related to the bank's inflation target of "less than, but close to 2.0 percent."
Now, he said, interest rate cuts since the financial crisis intensified in September "must be related to 'close to 2.0 percent'."
Eurozone inflation plunged in November to 2.1 percent and provisional German inflation figures released on Tuesday showed that consumer prices in the zone's biggest economy had risen by just 1.1 percent in December.
If inflation falls much further, and some analysts expect it to dip briefly into negative territory in mid 2009, the ECB will have room to lower rates further, Schmieding noted.
Postbank analyst Fabienne Riefer said inflation for the entire eurozone, which will have 16 members when Slovakia joins on Thursday, "could fall below 1.0 percent before rising towards the end of the year."
She saw the ECB's benchmark rate at 2.0 percent in the first three months of 2009.
As for a January cut, Schmieding said: "I still think they're probably not there yet, the internal debate is probably not concluded.
"They have another three weeks to go."
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European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet, seen here on December 8, 2008, appeared on Tuesday to allow for a January interest rate cut by stressing that inflation should not fall much below two percent.
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