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Pakistan keeps discount rate at 15 pct as economy slows
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Pakistan keeps discount rate at 15 pct as economy slows
Reuters - Sunday, February 1
By Sahar Ahmed
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KARACHI, Jan 31 - Pakistan's central bank said on Saturday its key policy discount rate would be left unchanged at 15.0 percent, although economic growth was set to fall to 3.7 percent in the fiscal year, the slowest since 2000/01.
The central bank raised interest rates by 2 percentage points in November, the same month it signed a $7.6 billion loan with the International Monetary Fund to stave off a balance of payments crisis.
"The State Bank will keep the policy discount rate unchanged at 15.0 percent," State Bank of Pakistan Governor Salim Raza said, delivering his first monetary policy statement since taking the helm at the central bank at the beginning of this month.
He said there would be another review in April, leaving open the possibility of a change.
Analysts had expected the central bank to keep interest rates on hold but say the need for rate cuts is becoming more urgent as the economy weakens. [ID:nSIN397370]
"We're going to have lower industrial growth than most years but services and agriculture will grow nearer to normal levels to give us GDP growth rate of about 3.7 pct," Raza said.
The central bank had previously forecast growth slowing to between 3.5 and 4.5 percent in the 2008/09.
Pakistan's economy grew by 5.8 percent in 2007/08.
Mohsin Khan, the economist who retired from the IMF after concluding negotiations with Pakistan for the emergency loan, was more pessimistic.
Khan told Reuters earlier this month that he didn't foresee growth topping 2 percent, effectively meaning the country was in recession. [nISL336768]
INFLATION
Interest rates, however, are still in negative territory in real terms because of a surge in inflation.
The consumer price index rose 23.34 percent year-on-year in December, but was down 0.50 percent from November.
The government's top economic official, Shaukat Tarin, said this week that authorities might start cutting interest rates this year as inflation eases. [ID:nSIN407207].
Raza said the principal uncertainties policy makers faced were risks of a shortfall in tax revenue, stubborn core inflation, further decline in demand for exports, and unpredictable global commodity prices, especially oil.
He said the central bank would also work toward introducing limits on direct government borrowing from State Bank with an aim to eliminate it altogether over the next few years.
The IMF said on Thursday that data indicates Pakistan has met its end-December targets under its 23-month IMF funding program, suggesting the government is making headway correcting imbalances. [ID:nN29289467]
"Initial developments under the program have been positive," IMF spokesman David Hawley told a regular news briefing.
"The foreign exchange rate has appreciated somewhat and preliminary information suggests that end-December targets for net international reserves and net domestic assets at the State Bank of Pakistan were met," he added.
A government official said Pakistan would get a $750 million tranche from the IMF in March as it had met all performance criteria for the October-December quarter.
The next IMF review is scheduled from Feb. 16 to Feb. 24, the official added.
Pakistan signed a $7.6 billion loan with the IMF in November to stave off a balance of payments crisis. It received its first tranche of $3.1 billion in the same month. (Additional reporting by Augustine Anthony; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and James Jukwey)
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