Forum Views ()
Forum Replies ()
Read more with google mobile :
COMMENTARY: Key element missing in Thailand's 'coup plot'
Yahoo!
My Yahoo!
Mail
More Yahoo! Services
Account Options
New User? Sign Up
Sign In
Help
Yahoo! Search
web search
Home
Singapore
Asia Pacific
World
Business
Entertainment
Sports
Technology
Weekend Edition
Australia
China
India
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
COMMENTARY: Key element missing in Thailand's 'coup plot'
ANN - Saturday, February 5
Send
IM Story
Print
Bangkok (The Nation-Thailand/ANN) - Words of wisdom have it that you can never discard the possibility of a military coup in Thailand. So is Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva safe?
The current coup rumours were based on what was perceived by some as a political impasse. According to the "deadlock" school of thought, Abhisit, because of his disastrous handling of the Thai-Cambodian territorial conflict, has come as far as he could, and although he has repeatedly promised an early election, that wouldn't help. Under present political circumstances, the only alternative to Abhisit is an opposition Pheu Thai Party-led government, which would be too close to Thaksin Shinawatra for comfort.
In other words, if both the ruling Democrat Party and Pheu Thai are bad for Thailand, there's going to be only one option left. The question, therefore, is how practical or plausible that "option" is. The answer is: "Not much."
A coup now would be illogical. In a democracy, no coup is logical, you may argue, but a coup now would be even "more illogical" than any others given the looming election. Men in uniform could roll out tanks to expel politicians who are allegedly corrupt, abusive and intolerable and who refuse to go away. But in Abhisit's case, what can the military say when a prime minister is promising an early election every other day? Can they really tell him, "We know you are giving it back to the people, but we want you to leave at gunpoint, anyway"?
The 2006 coup was very different. Thaksin called a new election from an omnipresent position. He knew he was unbeatable election-wise and so did his opponents. Abhisit will call a new ballot from a shaky position, so nobody would be able to accuse him of trying to give himself with a fake new "mandate".
Of course, if Abhisit lets it drag on past April, the "illogical" argument may lose weight. But again, a coup as the country edges towards an election requires a very good script to answer both domestic and international critics.
Now, to the issue of who could do it. Most eyes have been on Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha. If soft-spoken, diplomatic soldiers like Anupong Paochinda could do it, how can we trust an aggressive, sometimes belligerent character like Prayuth, who, additionally, is a well-connected guy with favourable ties with people who matter in various sectors?
But Prayuth has chosen to be diplomatic on the Cambodian affair. In fact, on the matter of the controversial Cambodian monastic sanctuary built on a disputed area at the border, he sounded more cautious and polite towards Cambodia than the Thai Foreign Ministry. If he launched a coup against Abhisit, the conventional "explanation" to the Thai public couldn't include accusations that the government was "weak" when it came to national sovereignty. That would leave Prayuth with little to utilise as a pretext.
Then there's the issue of "motivation". Most coups in the past happened because perceived or proclaimed serious threats against the country's beloved institution, and politicians in power were implicated in such threats, if not directly deemed to be those threats themselves. Whatever people criticise Abhisit for, he can hardly be accused of being disloyal.
Another conventional motivating factor is perceived threats against the military establishment. Abhisit has been respectable in this regard, never trying to politicise the military. Critics will argue he has just been the military's "good boy", which, however, raises the question why a "good boy" would have to be booted out.
This leaves "corruption" as the only viable pretext. This excuse, however, requires assets seizure, a court trial and all. For any ambitious general out there wanting to explore this avenue, all he needs to do is look back and see how difficult it was even against one Thaksin Shinawatra.
Recommend
Send
IM Story
Print
Related Articles
Quake of 6.4 magnitude rocks eastern India Reuters - 1 hour 4 minutes ago
Kazakh hosts extend winning streak at Asian Games AFP - 1 hour 9 minutes ago
Cambodian, Thai troops clash near disputed temple AFP - 1 hour 28 minutes ago
Myanmar picks junta insider as president: official AFP - Saturday, February 5
Thai, Cambodian troops in deadly clash near temple Reuters - Saturday, February 5
News Search
Top Stories
German-French drive to unify euro economy hits obstacles
US jobless rate falls to 9%, few jobs added
Germany, France launch new eurozone convergence plan
Spanish lender Banco Popular's profits down 23%
Bank of Spain estimates economy shrank 0.1%
More Top Stories »
ADVERTISEMENT
Most Popular
Most Viewed
US golfer Woods finds old habits hard to shake
Russia loses military satellite: reports
US auto sales jump 17 percent in January
Dow closes over 12,000 for first time since June 2008
Egypt's Mubarak to step down at September election
More Most Viewed »
More Most Recommended »
Elsewhere on Yahoo!
Financial news on Yahoo! Finance
Stars and latest movies
Best travel destinations
More on Yahoo! News
Home
Singapore
Asia Pacific
World
Business
Entertainment
Sports
Technology
Weekend Edition
Subscribe to our news feeds
Top StoriesMy Yahoo!RSS
» More news feeds | What are news feeds?
Also on Yahoo!
Answers
Groups
Mail
Messenger
Mobile
Travel
Finance
Movies
Sports
Games
» All Yahoo! Services
Site Highlights
Singapore
Full Coverage
Most Popular
Entertainment
Photos
Yahoo! News Network
Copyright © 2011 Yahoo! Southeast Asia Pte. Ltd. (Co. Reg. No. 199700735D). All Rights Reserved.
Terms of Service |
Privacy Policy |
Community |
Intellectual Property Rights Policy |
Help
Other News on Friday, 4 February 2011 Corrected
Berlusconi wins brief respite from sex scandals
Verizon gets some iPhone customer complaints
Bernanke: 'Strengthened' US recovery still lacks jobs
UN launches new anti-piracy drive
Vodafone accuses Egyptian government of co-opting network
Egypt govt takes initiative to calm popular revolt
EU waives Iran visa ban, but Tehran stays silent
ECB holds key lending rate steady
Pro- and anti-Mubarak groups skirmish in Cairo
Algeria promises more freedoms to avert protests
|
Astronomers discover six planets
Fitch downgrades Egypt debt rating
World food prices hit record high: UN agency
Israeli official sees cyber alternative to "ugly" war
Suspected gas explosions at Turkish plant kill 10
|
US-TECH Summary
Tunisia replaces regional governors
|
Iraqis protest power and food shortages; 3 shot
Egypt's prime minister apologises for violence
Three bombs kill at least six in Iraq's Ramadi
|
Iran could make nuclear weapon in 1-2 years-IISS
Denmark finds cartoonist attacker guilty of terror
|
Mubarak supporters break through Cairo buffer zone
Filipino furniture designer a Hollywood hit
Kazakhstan on top at winter Asiad
Myanmar junta party 'sweeps presidential race'
N. Korea's Kim attends New Year concert
Developed world must lead on climate change: India
US-ENTERTAINMENT Summary
Nepal elects new PM after seven-month deadlock
Mick Jagger to perform at Grammys for first time
Indian ex-minister held in police custody
ISS backs call for Apple CEO succession plan
|
Big dig-out follows widespread U.S. winter storm
"Last Tango in Paris" star Schneider dies
Oil price shoots above $103 on Egypt crisis
German state mulls burqa ban for civil servants
Internet addresses depletion reflects wired world
|
Mammoth storm leaves bitter cold, destruction
Israeli official sees cyber alternative to ugly war
|
Mazda swings into red in third quarter
German aristocrats scoop millions for seized treasures
Horses bring relief in rough Mexico City neighborhood
Vodafone accuses Egypt government of co-opting network
|
Softbank profit jumps on robust iPhone demand
Barbie's Ken turns 50, gets Facebook and Twitter makeover
Hitachi quarterly profit surges
Scientists make nanosheets with high-tech potential
|
Filipino furniture designer a Hollywood hit
Senate panel backs patent overhaul bill
|
Asia drives 2010 Swiss trade
Apple's iPad boosts FT online subscriptions
|
As art market booms, some see the risk of bust
Pakistani stocks up; rupee weakens; o/n rates flat
EU lawmakers seek stricter rules for electronic waste
|
Microsoft taps USD high-grade market with $2.25 billion deal
|
Pakistan's forex reserves rise to record $17.38 bln
Mick Jagger to perform at Grammys for first time
|
Internet address warehouse empty
US-TECH Summary
Israeli official sees cyber alternative to "ugly" war
Canada minister says Internet billing ruling flawed
New York Times net profit dips 26 percent
Nigerian jailed for Facebook insult of governor
Verizon gets some iPhone customer complaints
Vodafone accuses Egyptian government of co-opting network
Answers.com to be taken private for $127 million
New books describe storms behind WikiLeaks scenes
Dutch government seeks return of hanged woman's body from Iran
Russia's ruling duo 'at odds' over bomb attack case
Eurozone bailout fund to get more powers: report
Internet addresses depletion reflects wired world
Egyptians brace for new anti-Mubarak rally
|
Amazon's double dry spell worries scientists
Lively community takes shape behind Cairo barricades
Cultural shift behind Italian women's thinning
'Tsunami' of obesity worldwide: study
Food costs at records as U.N. warns of volatile era
|
Suspected gas explosions at Turkish plant kill 12
US accuses 10 sports websites of piracy links
Physical exercise helps keeps cancer at bay: WHO
Canada vows no limits on Internet downloads
Mubarak fears Egypt chaos if steps down: report
Kazakhstan to hold presidential election on April 3
|
Haiti sets revised presidency runoff
|
Apple's iPad boosts FT online subscriptions
U.S. intel warned on Egypt instability at end-2010
Microsoft sells $2.25 billion of debt at low rates
Berlusconi passes tax changes, ignoring parliament
|
Egyptians brace for new anti-Mubarak rally
Journalists attacked and detained in Egypt protests
Hackers train sights on Yemen after Egypt
Lively community takes shape behind Cairo barricades
|
Kenneth Cole dressed down for Egypt "tweet"
Myanmar's new parliament appoints Thein Sein president
|
ISS backs call for Apple CEO succession plan
Myanmar set to name president: source
Dutch government seeks return of hanged woman's body from Iran
|
Luxury watchmakers follow the money to Asia
All-seeing eyes
Journalists detail on Twitter media attacks in Egypt
Future prospects
Actress cast for TV film about British royal wedding
Italian maestro Muti faints at Chicago rehearsal
US discussing plan for Mubarak to quit now: NYT
Roosters, be vigilant
Black Eyed Peas set to bring sport anthems to Super Bowl
Minimum and maximum temperatures in Celsius
Design study done for Southeast Asian trading link
"Idol" hopeful Schulz released album as a teen
The year ahead
Hobbit director Jackson leaves hospital
Hill, Hynde ready for "chaotic" Super Bowl telecast
Verizon may curb heavy iPhone data users
|
Australian rescuers battle to reach cyclone towns
Jagger to perform at Grammys show
US troops join rescue in flood-hit Philippines
Internet addresses depletion reflects wired world
|
Troops prepare to aid Australia's cyclone relief
Journalists detail on Twitter media attacks in Egypt
|
Myanmar likely to pick junta's PM as president
Calpers seeking majority vote for Apple board
|
China stealth-jet firm eyes US contracts: report
Pakistan cenbank to sell T-bills in 6-day repo
Prius loses Japan top spot for first time in 20 months
Australia lets Thai oil firm stay despite spill
Pakistan
Sharp, Taiwan's Chimei to partner on LCDs: report
NZ new car registrations rise in January
Honda Fit beats Toyota Prius to top Japan
NZ migration gains higher in December
China property taxes a stab at dousing inflation
Hobbit director Jackson leaves hospital
|
Idol hopeful Schulz released album as a teen
|
Black Eyed Peas set to bring sport anthems to Super Bowl
|
Journalists detail on Twitter media attacks in Egypt
|
Hill, Hynde ready for chaotic Super Bowl telecast
|
Huge crowds turn out for Mubarak 'departure day'
Bank of Spain estimates economy shrank 0.1%
Danish cartoonist's attacker jailed nine years
Egypt defence minister visits Cairo square-source
Malawi to debate public farting ban
Police beat Sudanese at short-lived protest: witnesses
|
Europe faces flak on Arab policy as summit opens
Pans and condoms star in anti-Berlusconi protests
|
Few regrets in ex-US defense chief's memoir
Al Qaeda kidnaps Italian tourist in Algeria
|
Bomb explodes near Afghan police chief's house
Russian defense chief visits isles claimed by Japan
|
US pushing for Mubarak to go now: report
France, FAO see food crisis risk as prices soar
|
U.S. discussing transition plan with Egyptians
U.S. discussing with Egypt ways of moving to transition
Cuba to free two more political prisoners
|
Fired Renault exec seeks answers from justice minister
|
Quake of 6.4 magnitude rocks eastern India
|
Tandja ally heads into Niger presidential run-off
|
Thai, Cambodian troops in deadly clash near temple
Pakistan cricketers charged with corruption
Cambodian, Thai troops clash near disputed temple
Australia PM Gillard battens down for disaster fallout
Calls to lift Myanmar sanctions face challenges
Thai, Cambodian troops clash near disputed border area
World food prices reach record high
Thai telcos in legal tussle
Indonesia raises key interest rate
Verizon halts iPhone sales after best first day
|
As ties warm, US mounts India business push
Foreigners nabbed in Thailand's huge drug busts
Iran says Stuxnet claims need investigating
|
Scientists make nanosheets with high-tech potential
|
Bank Indonesia rises interest rate to 6.75 percent
COMMENTARY: Key element missing in Thailand's 'coup plot'
Cisco to buy digital video firm Inlet for $95 million
|
BBC defends Top Gear jokes about Mexico
|
Greece at new risk of being pushed off euro
Bodies of missing Tenn. mom, Jo Ann Bain, and daughter found
Female Breasts Are Bigger Than Ever
AMD Trinity Accelerated Processing Units Now in Volume Production
The Avengers (2012 film), made the second biggest opening- and single-day gross of all-time
AMD to Start Production of piledriver
Ivy Bridge Quad-Core, Four-Thread Desktop CPUs
Islamists Protest Lady Gaga's Concert in Indonesia
Japan Successfully Broadcasts an 8K Signal Over the Air
ECB boosts loans to 1 trillion Euro to stop credit crunch
Egypt : Mohammed Morsi won with 52 percent
What do you call 100,000 Frenchmen with their hands up
AMD Launches AMD Embedded R-Series APU Platform
Fed Should not Ignore Emerging Market Crisis
Fed casts shadow over India, emerging markets
Why are Chinese tourists so rude? A few insights