InfoAnda - Analysis: How close is Iran to the bomb? |

Pakistanis angry over detentions in Times Sq. case
Monday, May 24, 2010
ISLAMABAD – Relatives of three men detained by Pakistan for alleged links to the suspect in the attempted Times Square bombing say the men are innocent.
They

Taiwan denies boycotting Australian film festival
Thursday, August 6, 2009

AFP - Thursday, August 6TAIPEI (AFP) - - Taiwan's Beijing-friendly government on Wednesday denied boycotting an Australian film festival amid a row over the e

Merkel's support dips, regional ally resigns International
Thursday, September 3, 2009

By Sarah Marsh and Noah Barkin

BERLIN (Reuters) - Chancellor Angela Merkel suffered a double blow on Thursday as a senior party ally in east German

Minister seeks closure of anti-Berlusconi websites
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
ROME (AFP) - – The Italian government moved Tuesday to close down Internet sites encouraging further violence against Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who

Asian markets mixed after Wall Street rally
Wednesday, March 18, 2009

By ELAINE KURTENBACH,AP Business Writer AP - Wednesday, March 18SHANGHAI - Asia's stock market rally seemed to be running out of steam Wednesday, despite an

Evidence blocked arrest of imam with Fort Hood tie | 3 December 2009
Fiat-Chrysler deal on the line as workers vote | 14 January 2011
Toyota sinks into quarterly loss | 6 February 2009

"Glee: The Music, Volume 4" Features Britney, Bruno Mars Covers | 10 November 2010

Forum Views () Forum Replies ()

Read more with google mobile : Analysis: How close is Iran to the bomb? |

Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Home Business Business Home Economy Technology Media Small Business Green Business Legal Deals Earnings Summits Business Video Markets Markets Home U.S. Markets European Markets Asian Markets Global Market Data Indices M&A Stocks Bonds Currencies Commodities Futures Funds peHUB World World Home U.S. Brazil China Euro Zone Japan Mexico Russia Afghan Journal Africa Journal India Insight Global News Journal Pakistan: Now or Never? World Video Politics Politics Home Front Row Washington Politics Video Technology Technology Home MediaFile Science Tech Video Opinion Opinion Home Chrystia Freeland Felix Salmon Jack Shafer Breakingviews George Chen Bernd Debusmann Gregg Easterbrook Nader Mousavizadeh James Saft John Wasik Christopher Whalen Ian Bremmer Mohamed El-Erian Lawrence Summers The Great Debate Unstructured Finance Newsmaker MuniLand Money Money Home Analyst Research Global Investing MuniLand Reuters Money Alerts Watchlist Portfolio Stock Screener Fund Screener Personal Finance Video Life & Culture Health Sports Arts Faithworld Business Traveler Left Field Entertainment Oddly Enough Lifestyle Video Pictures Pictures Home Reuters Photographers Full Focus Video Article Comments (2) Full Focus Editor's choice A selection of our best photos from the past 24 hours. Warning: Graphic content Full Article Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read Apple expected to unveil new iPhone next week 6:05am EDT Analysis: Pakistan's double-game: treachery or strategy? 9:47am EDT UPDATE 4-Greece to face inspectors, Merkel hints at bailout change 10:02am EDT Greece to face inspectors, Merkel hints at bailout | 11:44am EDT First Boeing Dreamliner arrives in fortress Japan 6:10am EDT Discussed 109 Particles recorded moving faster than light: CERN 90 House unexpectedly defeats spending bill 81 UPDATE 1-Particles found to break speed of light Watched Rihanna's "inappropriate" outfit halts music video Tue, Sep 27 2011 Southern lights provide heavenly view from space Tue, Sep 27 2011 Is technology killing jobs? Mon, Sep 26 2011 Analysis: How close is Iran to the bomb? Tweet Share this Email Print Related News Iran's Ahmadinejad attacks West, prompts walk-out Thu, Sep 22 2011 Palestinian crisis looms over U.N. meeting Thu, Sep 22 2011 Iran's Ahmadinejad revives nuclear fuel swap offer Thu, Sep 22 2011 North Korea says wants more talks with U.S. Thu, Sep 22 2011 Two U.S. hikers convicted as spies leave Iran on bail Wed, Sep 21 2011 Analysis & Opinion Who fills the global power vacuum? Where the Afghanistan effort broke down Related Topics World » EDITORS' NOTE: Reuters and other foreign media are subject to Iranian restrictions on their ability to report, film or take pictures in Tehran. A military vehicle carrying Iranian Zoobin smart bomb (L) and Sagheb missile under pictures of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (R) and Late Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini during a parade to commemorate the anniversary of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88), in Tehran September 22, 2011. Credit: Reuters/Stringer By Fredrik Dahl VIENNA | Wed Sep 28, 2011 9:11am EDT VIENNA (Reuters) - Either Iran could build a nuclear bomb in a matter of months or it is unlikely to get such a weapon any time soon -- depending on which Western expert you talk to. The differing estimates show the difficulty in trying to assess how long it could take Iran to convert its growing uranium stockpile into weapons-grade material and how advanced it may be in other areas vital for any bomb bid. The answers to those questions could determine the major powers' room for maneuver in trying to find a diplomatic solution to a dispute over Iran's nuclear ambitions which has the potential to spark a wider conflict in the Middle East. Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. Western-based analysts generally agree with their governments that Tehran is developing technology that could be used to make a bomb, but they disagree about just how close it is to success. U.S. defense analyst Greg Jones gave one of the more urgent warnings this month, arguing that if Iran decides to make a bomb it could produce enough highly-enriched uranium (HEU) in about eight weeks. "The timeframe will shrink to only about four weeks by the end of next year as Iran's enriched uranium stockpiles and enrichment capacity continue to increase," Jones, of the conservative Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, said. Iran "needs to be treated as a de facto nuclear power simply by virtue of being so close to having a weapon," he added in an article in U.S. political magazine New Republic. Other experts say such estimates are unrealistic, given the hurdles Iran must still overcome. "I think that we tend to overstate sometimes how close Iran is to being able to develop a nuclear weapon," said senior researcher Shannon Kile at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think-tank based in the Swedish capital. "I just don't see how you can credibly say they are going to be eight weeks away or even 18 months away." MONTHS VS. YEARS Jones is not the only expert to suggest that Iran may be very close to producing the refined uranium material necessary for a weapon, should it decide to do so. A paper published by the U.S. Bipartisan Policy Center think-tank said Iran could make 20 kg of HEU -- a quantity it said would be enough for one device -- in two months. It said it remained unclear if Iran had mastered the technology to turn the HEU into a weapon, but that history suggested this could be achieved in less than six months. But another Washington-based think-tank, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), said Jones's calculation method was "unreliable" and a breakout in such a short time at Iran's Natanz enrichment site was not realistic. Other experts stressed that Iran would also need to turn any weapons-usable uranium into the core of a nuclear missile if it wanted more than a crude device, adding to the timetable. Mark Fitzpatrick, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said he now believed Iran could make a nuclear weapon in less than two years' time. "Suggestions that Iran will be able to produce weapons in a matter of months are irresponsible," Fitzpatrick, a director of the IISS Non-proliferation and Disarmament Programme, said. But, "just as exaggeration is irresponsible, so too is complacency," he added. Iran's refusal to halt its enrichment activities has drawn four rounds of U.N. sanctions since 2006. Refined uranium can be used to fuel nuclear power plants or provide material for bombs if processed much further. The West fears that Iran's move last year to enrich uranium to a fissile purity of almost 20 percent -- up from the 3.5 percent normally needed for reactors -- takes it significantly closer to the 90 percent level needed for arms. Iran says it needs this higher-grade material for a reactor producing radioactive isotopes to treat cancer patients. ISIS said that in the fastest scenario, Iran could have enough of the 20 percent material for a nuclear weapon in 2012 if it refined more. But even if Iran were to produce bomb-grade uranium, it would also have to transform it from gaseous into metal form, miniaturize it to squeeze into the nose cone of a missile and fit it with a trigger system. STOCKPILE GROWING Sanctions and possible sabotage -- such as the Stuxnet computer virus and killings of nuclear scientists that Tehran blames on Israel -- may have slowed Iran's atomic work, but its stockpile of uranium is steadily growing. Iran "is moving ahead in all of the ways that you would need to if you wanted a nuclear weapon," Fitzpatrick said. Raising the pressure, U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Yukiya Amano this month said he was "increasingly concerned" about possible work in Iran to develop a nuclear missile. He hoped to give more details soon about the basis for those concerns. Israel and the United States, Tehran's arch foes, have not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the row. Israel bombed an Iraqi reactor in 1981 and launched a similar sortie against Syria in 2007. "Israel has no doubt that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons," the head of the Jewish state's atomic energy commission, Shaul Chorev, told member states of the U.N. nuclear agency last week. Israel's chief of military intelligence, Aviv Kochavi, said in January that Iran could produce bombs within two years. Iran and Arab states say Israel itself has an atomic arsenal that threatens regional peace and stability. Israel neither confirms nor denies that it possesses nuclear arms. Diplomatic efforts to seek a negotiated outcome with Iran have been deadlocked since a fruitless meeting in January. Tehran now says it is prepared to resume the talks. Western countries are skeptical, but the six powers involved -- the United States, China, Russia, France, Britain and Germany -- may once again test its readiness to engage on issues of substance. They have offered economic and political incentives for Iran to drop enrichment, so far in vain. Iran's says it is its "inalienable right" to develop the nuclear fuel cycle. Greg Thielmann, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Arms Control Association, stressed the importance of using the time available to influence decision-making in Tehran: "A nuclear-armed Iran is neither imminent nor inevitable." World Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (2) Ocala123456789 wrote: israel’s scare tactics… if everybody respects each other… there will not be this type funkiness… but spoiled Israel would like the rule the world under our protection… we support Israel and their bankers in Wall Street w our taxes… what a wonderful world… Sep 28, 2011 10:23am EDT -- Report as abuse Eideard wrote: What makes you think a “defense analyst” is an expert on technology required to build an internationally deployable atomic weapon. He’s sitting around reading fewer technical manuals than political propaganda. Sep 28, 2011 11:04am EDT -- Report as abuse See All Comments » Add Your Comment Social Stream (What's this?) Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Back to top Reuters.com Business Markets World Politics Technology Opinion Money Pictures Videos Site Index Legal Bankruptcy Law California Legal New York Legal Securities Law Support & Contact Contact Us Advertise With Us Connect with Reuters Twitter Facebook LinkedIn RSS Podcast Newsletters Mobile About Privacy Policy Terms of Use Our Flagship financial information platform incorporating Reuters Insider An ultra-low latency infrastructure for electronic trading and data distribution A connected approach to governance, risk and compliance Our next generation legal research platform Our global tax workstation Thomsonreuters.com About Thomson Reuters Investor Relations Careers Contact Us Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

Other News on Wednesday, 28 September 2011
Exclusive: Serbia may win EU candidate status, no talks yet |
Developing: Washington, D.C. office buildings evacuated over package concerns
Yemen defense minister survives attack, protests continue |
Vick's complaints about hits elicit no apologies from Giants defense
Walnut Creek Dental Announces Groupon Special Offer on Invisalign Orthodontic Treatment
Egypt's parliamentary vote starts Nov 28 |
Mexican attorney general demands explanation on Operation Fast and Furious
Heat's Bosh, James, Wade set to host charity game next month
Pools and water play areas spread disease
Chelsa Clinton joins IAC board
Retail sales weaken in UK
Dolce & Gabbana expands into high-end jewelry
Amazon, Netflix to add movies, TV shows
U.S., EU condemn Israeli plan to expand settlement |
Saudi woman faces flogging for driving: Amnesty |
Lawmakers call undeletable cookies unacceptable |
Europe plans charter to safeguard Internet users |
Rock and Roll Hall unveils nominees for 2012 |
Anna Faris answers film question What's Your Number? |
Ed Helms comes into his own as new boss of The Office |
Men producer writing tell-all book on Sheen |
Gaddafi loyalists put up tough fight in Sirte |
China officials probe Shanghai subway train crash |
Xtra Frame to air “PBA World Series of Bowling Warmup” free on internet
Ai Weiwei's wife urges China to drop plan on detentions |
U.S. commander hopes China dialogues to continue despite Taiwan arms sale
Marlins next for Ozzie: White Sox, manager Guillen part ways
Newsmaker: Tang gears up to become Hong Kong's next leader |
U.S., EU condemn Israeli plan to expand settlement |
Brazil's World Cup rush fuels spending blowout |
Price of new Amazon tablet could be big attraction |
Insight: China's e-payment booms, foreigners get the boot |
Google to build data centers in Singapore, HK, Taiwan |
Google+ traffic surges, closes in on MySpace, Linkedin |
In switch, cable operators want to go a la carte |
Google plans start-up centre in London's East End |
Mexican social media boom draws drug cartel attacks |
Michael Jackson images dominate opening of death trial |
Better late than never: Polanski gets his award |
Melissa Etheridge receives Walk of Fame star |
North Irish farmer boots scantily clad Rihanna off land |
Publisher stands by Rogue book despite Palin threat |
Analysis: Pakistan's double-game: treachery or strategy? |
Syrian tanks pound anti-Assad fighters for 2nd day |
Looking for the Ultimate Driving School? Check Out the New Driving Simulator.
Work together to achieve recovery, agency urges
Council takes first step on Palestinian U.N. bid |
Soldiers' stories
Mau evictees still waiting three years on
Education hard hit in drought-affected northern Kenya
Playoff push: Wild Card races both come down to the wire in MLB
Analysis: How close is Iran to the bomb? |
Olympic long jump hopeful clears three Mini Coopers
Study: Tired teens more likely to engage in risky behavior
More insecurity, civilian casualties in Afghanistan: U.N. |
Iraq makes first payment for 18 fighter jets
Scores arrested in Bulgarian Roma protests |
Papandreou secures Greek Parliament vote on property tax
Ousted Iran bank chief says he is scandal fall guy |
Bahrain feels heavy weight of sectarian tension |
Amazon unveils Kindle Fire tablet |
Insight: Social media
Exclusive: More money flowing to targeted media |
Stores give staff iPads to keep up with shoppers |
Samsung joins forces with Intel and Microsoft |
Europe slow to adopt 4G mobile: sector execs |
A Minute With: Thomas Jane and his role on Hung |
Anna Faris answers film question What's Your Number? |
Men producer writing tell-all book on Sheen |
Greece at new risk of being pushed off euro
Bodies of missing Tenn. mom, Jo Ann Bain, and daughter found
Female Breasts Are Bigger Than Ever
AMD Trinity Accelerated Processing Units Now in Volume Production
The Avengers (2012 film), made the second biggest opening- and single-day gross of all-time
AMD to Start Production of piledriver
Ivy Bridge Quad-Core, Four-Thread Desktop CPUs
Islamists Protest Lady Gaga's Concert in Indonesia
Japan Successfully Broadcasts an 8K Signal Over the Air
ECB boosts loans to 1 trillion Euro to stop credit crunch
Egypt : Mohammed Morsi won with 52 percent
What do you call 100,000 Frenchmen with their hands up
AMD Launches AMD Embedded R-Series APU Platform
Fed Should not Ignore Emerging Market Crisis
Fed casts shadow over India, emerging markets
Why are Chinese tourists so rude? A few insights

USD EUR - 1 year graph		BlogMeter 1.01