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Video Flexible, foldable, wearable computer platforms Top tech holiday gifts Electronic Arts bets big on Jedis and Wookies Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read Banks gorge on ECB loans | 10:57am EST Exclusive: North Korea's military to share power with Kim's heir | 8:58am EST Slumping Gingrich promises sharper counter-punch 20 Dec 2011 NASA finds Earth-size planets outside solar system 9:22am EST Oracle falls as slow tech spending hurts business 11:09am EST Discussed 273 Ron Paul gains ground, further stirring Republicans 154 Ron Paul strongly defends anti-war policies 114 North Korea state TV says Kim Jong il has died Watched Kim Jong-un to share power 3:35am EST Tears flow for Dear Leader Tue, Dec 20 2011 Japan picks the F35 as regional uncertainty rises Mon, Dec 19 2011 Buy or Sell: New Nokia smartphone no game changer Tweet Share this Email Print Related News Exclusive: Amazon weighed buying RIM, interest cooled 8:01am EST Apple scores limited victory in smartphone patent war Tue, Dec 20 2011 Americans losing addiction to "CrackBerrys" Fri, Dec 16 2011 Analysis: Apple struggles to take bigger bite out of China Fri, Dec 16 2011 Galaxy and iPhone to top smartphone holiday sales Fri, Dec 16 2011 Analysis & Opinion 20 big ideas for 2012, continued Microsoft goes social. Sort of. Related Topics Tech » Money » Media » By Tarmo Virki, European Technology Correspondent HELSINKI | Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:53am EST HELSINKI (Reuters) - Nokia's long-awaited Windows phones may be too little, too late in the smartphone war and investment in the shares will increasingly be driven by takeover speculation. Its first Windows model, the Lumia 800, won some positive reviews but little interest from consumers, with only 2 percent of Europeans in the market for a smartphone saying they would pick it, according to a survey by Exane BNP Paribas. "This is not a game changer," a senior European telecom executive told Reuters of the Lumia, which uses Microsoft software. Nokia's shares have fallen over 20 percent since the October 26 launch of the new phone, after investors decided it was unlikely to make a significant dent in a market still dominated by Apple and Google. Smartphones using Microsoft software have just a 2 percent market share, compared with Google Android at around 50 percent and Apple at 15-20 percent. "There isn't much room left for a third ecosystem. The smartphone market is consolidating fast," said Bernstein analyst Pierre Ferragu who rates Nokia a "sell." Smartphones are built on mobile computing platforms, and the most modern combine web browsers, navigation systems, cameras and portable music systems. A so-called "feature" phone -- a market Nokia dominates -- has far fewer of these applications. Microsoft itself has started to hedge its bets, making its software increasingly available for rivals to Windows Phone. Even Nokia's old Symbian software, which it decided to dump in favor of Microsoft, still outsells Windows Phones by 10 to 1. And as Nokia keeps shifting to Windows, sales of Symbian have a lot of room to disappoint over coming quarters. UPSIDE, DOWNSIDE Another risk for Nokia investors is the possibility it will slash its dividend early next year. Estimates from Thomson Reuters Starmine, which give more weight to analysts with a better forecasting track record, show dividends are expected to fall 60 percent from a year ago to just 16 euro cents for 2011, with the payout seen at 17 cents for 2012. Forecasts from Starmine also indicate earnings per share in 2012 and 2013 are set to disappoint. Its EPS estimates for both years stand 12 percent below consensus forecasts. Some analysts are keeping the faith, however, believing the new assault on the smartphone market may be enough to give Nokia a place at the table. If they are wrong, the attractions of the handset maker's strong cash position and some prized patent assets could yield a takeover bonus. The shares, recently trading at around 3.65 euros, also look cheap to some. Many analysts cite an improvement in Nokia's product portfolio, which looked out of date when Stephen Elop took over as the chief executive in September 2010. "With current, and upcoming models, Nokia can win back market share in both -- in feature phones and in smartphones," said Swedbank analyst Jari Honko, who has a "buy" recommendation on the stock. "Today's share price does not take into account any recovery in the Nokia market position." And while some argue there is no room for a third alternative to Google and Apple, some developers and operators do see room for more competitors in this market. The 2012 Windows 8 upgrade could attract a wider audience by giving making the way smartphones, tablets and PCs work more similar. For investors, the biggest positive surprise could be an acquisition offer. After Nokia signed a deal with Microsoft, rumors of full takeover by Microsoft or at least buyout of smartphone unit have made rounds on a weekly basis. Last week the stock jumped 4 percent when Danske Bank suggested Microsoft could buy Nokia's smartphone unit. But even if investors don't get a rich buyout - online gambling company Unibet is putting odds on Microsoft buying Nokia in 2012 at just 15:1 - analysts say the company's relatively-solid finances should at least offer some security. Nokia had 1.36 euros per share of cash at the end of the last quarter. It also has a strong patent portfolio - on its own worth more than a euro per share - and owns top digital mapping firm Navteq and half of No 2 mobile network gear maker Nokia Siemens Networks. (Reporting By Tarmo Virki; Editing by Jodie Ginsberg and Chris Wickham) Tech Money Media Related Quotes and News Company Price Related News Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (1) ThePeakOilPoet wrote: Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Back to top Reuters.com Business Markets World Politics Technology Opinion Money Pictures Videos Site Index Legal Bankruptcy Law California Legal New York Legal Securities Law Support & Contact Support Corrections Advertise With Us Connect with Reuters Twitter Facebook LinkedIn RSS Podcast Newsletters Mobile About Privacy Policy Terms of Use Our Flagship financial information platform incorporating Reuters Insider An ultra-low latency infrastructure for electronic trading and data distribution A connected approach to governance, risk and compliance Our next generation legal research platform Our global tax workstation Thomsonreuters.com About Thomson Reuters Investor Relations Careers Contact Us Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. 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