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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail Yahoo! Search Search: Sign InNew User? Sign Up News Home - Help Navigation Primary Navigation Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Secondary Navigation Singapore Asia Pacific World Search Search: FACTBOX-Property, politics vie for S.Korea c.bank attention Reuters - Thursday, September 10 By Yoo Choonsik ADVERTISEMENT SEOUL, Sept 9 - South Korea's central bank looks certain to hold interest rates steady on Thursday for a seventh consecutive month but bets are increasing it will start to raise them from as early as November. By law, the Bank of Korea is independent with a mission to pursue price stability. It is also, however, obliged to implement policy "in harmony with the economic policy of the government". While inflation is considered benign, markets are pricing in the risk that rising assets prices and consumer debt may spark the central bank into action by starting to reverse the measures put in place to counter the global economic downturn. Following are key factors that will influence the Bank of Korea's interest rate policy in coming months: ASSET PRICES RISE South Korean housing prices did not suffer significant falls during the global financial crisis and have started to climb again. So far, though, there is no immediate sign of a bubble. Monthly mortgage lending is bigger compared with average monthly levels in 2008 and has grown at more than 1 percent a month since May. House prices nationally have risen for five straight months, leaving those in much of central Seoul back to near pre-crisis levels. Prices across the country rose 20 percent in the three years through last September. In the same period, apartment prices in the densely populated capital Seoul, watched closely by policymakers, increased at double that pace. Shares on the main stock exchange board <.KS11> have risen more than 60 percent in the past six months, and are now almost 10 percent above the level seen when the financial crisis erupted last September. As with house prices, the sharp recovery in shares was on the back of massive liquidity injection by authorities to protect the economy during the crisis. Accompanying these has been a fast rise in consumer debt, already at two-thirds of annual gross domestic product. INFLATION SET TO PICK UP Annual consumer inflation was 2.2 percent in August, near a 9-year low of 1.6 percent in July. But if the monthly rise in August alone is anything to go by, the annual rate would pass 4 percent by December, Reuters calculations show. Increasing optimism about the economy and rising asset prices could boost service-sector prices, which have never fallen for more than one month over the past 10 years. A possible pick-up in global energy prices once the world economy recovers will feed through into inflation because South Korea relies almost totally on imported energy. The Bank of Korea's inflation target for 2007-2009 was between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent. The index rose an annual 3.4 percent on average until August, Reuters calculations show. A new target has yet to be set. GROWTH-OBSESSED PRESIDENT Traders and analysts in Seoul say the Bank of Korea's seven board members, three of them appointed at the recommendation of the government and a business lobby group, cannot ignore the current leadership's intense focus on economic growth. President Lee Myung-bak came to power about a year and half ago but his ambitious growth programme has been derailed by the global downturn. He had promised annual growth of 7 percent, but the financial crisis is likely to see the economy contract this year. Lee and his finance minister have both stressed the need to be ultra-cautious before pulling back from the measures that have helped protect the economy from the worst of the crisis, despite signs recovery is coming much faster than many had anticipated. Analysts also note that Lee's first finance minister, Kang Man-soo and key architect of his pro-growth policies, is back in an influential position in the presidential Blue House after having to resign as minister last year. [ID:nSEO172668] Lee's Grand National Party is also unlikely to want any major policy shift before local elections next June. But it may be disappointed. The term of Bank of Korea Governor Lee Seong-tae ends in March, giving him room to side-step any political pressure and start tightening policy sooner, some analysts say. In fact, three-month rates for certificates of deposit suggest policy rates may rise at least 25 basis points by the end of the year from the current record low of 2.0 percent. INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION South Korea's desire to host next year's G20 summit meeting, as part of efforts to boost its image as a leading emerging economy, could also influence the timing of a policy shift. Several analysts say the G20's official position that it is premature to exit from the stimulus schemes could persuade the South Korean government to bide its time, which might in turn influence the central bank. G20 finance ministers said at the weekend that trillions of dollars in support would be needed for some time because the world economy is not out of the woods. Finance Minister Yoon has also said on several occasions that any shift away from the stimulus policies would be done in coordination with other countries. Some analysts say the Bank of Korea could be encouraged to ignore the G20 agenda if other countries in the region moves first -- with India and Australia widely seen as most likely to tighten policy first. Email Story IM Story Printable View Blog This Sign in to recommend this article » 0 users recommend Related Articles: Business Stocks open lower as commodities rallyAP - 2 hours 22 minutes ago OPEC committee recommends no oil production cutAP - 2 hours 29 minutes ago Oil hovers above $71 amid weakening US dollarAP - 2 hours 29 minutes ago Sun Healthcare Group cuts 2009 outlookAP - 2 hours 40 minutes ago RPT-Berlin's electronics fair pushes greener futureReuters - 2 hours 38 minutes ago Most Popular – Business Viewed Giant statues reveal red hat secrets: study Hershey considers rival Cadbury bid: report Anti-piracy equipment dazzles defence fair New Alzheimer's gene link discovered Economy outlook "better" than expected: bankers View Complete List » Search: Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! Southeast Asia Pte Ltd. (Co. Reg. No. 199700735D). All Rights Reserved. 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FACTBOX-Property, politics vie for S.Korea c.bank attention
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