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S&P: Taiwan dollar's rise won't hurt life insurers rtgs for now
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S&P: Taiwan dollar's rise won't hurt life insurers rtgs for now
Reuters - Monday, February 21
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Feb. 21, 2011--Foreign exchange volatility won't have an immediate effect on Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' ratings on life insurers in Taiwan. That's despite the weaker operating performances of several major players in January 2011 due to higher hedging costs as a result of currency appreciation.
"The Taiwan dollar appreciated 3.5% against the U.S. dollar in January 2011 before the greenback regained 0.58% in the first two weeks of February. We view such fluctuations and earnings volatility to be within our expectations for major rated domestic life insurers," said credit analyst Serene Hsieh. "We already factor life insurers' intrinsic profit volatility into our ratings. Forex fluctuations on their own aren't likely to trigger negative rating actions unless volatility is higher than expected."
In Standard & Poor's view, forex movement is a natural phenomenon found in any financial system, and it is likely to continuously affect the volatility of the insurers' operating performances. The level of recurring investment yield (excluding capital gains or losses) on life insurers' securities portfolios indicates the amount of recurring investment profits that insurers can use as a buffer against forex costs.
"This buffer has not yet recovered to the level prior to the onset of the financial market dislocation in 2008. We estimate that the life insurance sector's ratio of net interest income to average interest-yielding assets was about 4% in 2010, down from 4.9% in 2007," said Ms. Hsieh.
Rated life insurers' generally declining forex risk appetite also supports their ability to manage forex volatility, in our view. Domestic life insurers' total overseas investments have grown in recent years, but at a gradual pace. At the same time, the sector has increasingly used conservative hedging tools, primarily involving currency swaps and non-delivery forward methods. At the end of November 2010, foreign assets accounted for 34.7% of the sector's total investments, which is a modest increase from 31.2% at the end of 2007.
Overseas investments have grown in tandem with insurers' strategic asset allocations to pursue overseas fixed income securities. These investments have longer tenors and higher yields to match the tenors and costs of their insurance policy liabilities back in Taiwan. In 2007-2010, the sector built up a higher conventional hedging position. We estimate that the overall industry's effective hedge ratio was about 80%-90% at the end of 2010, up from 70%-80% at the end of 2007.
In our view, Taiwan's rated life insurers are now far more familiar with hedging mechanisms than before in terms of risk management. Forex volatility is therefore unlikely to significantly affect our ratings--as long as such volatility remains within our expectations.
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