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India economy grows 7.9%, shatters forecasts
AFP - Tuesday, December 1
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India economy grows 7.9%, shatters forecasts
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NEW DELHI (AFP) - – India reported its best growth figures in 18 months on Monday as government spending and record low interest rates helped Asia's third-largest economy rebound from the global financial crisis.
The 7.9-percent expansion in the quarter to September from a year earlier far eclipsed market forecasts and prompted the government to raise its growth expectations for the financial year to March 2010.
The growth figures, which underscored Asia's role in spearheading the global recovery, also stoked speculation about when India would begin exiting stimulus measures brought in to ride out the worldwide slump.
"As upside surprises go, this was a big one," said HSBC economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde, who called the fiscal second-quarter performance "extraordinary."
The growth numbers easily outdistanced the consensus forecast of 6.3 percent growth and drove Mumbai's benchmark 30-share Sensex index 1.77 percent higher to 16,926.22 points.
The data was expected to trigger more flows into India's share market which has risen by more than 70 percent this year on the back of foreign fund purchases worth nearly 16 billion dollars.
India's performance was aided by a surprise expansion in farm output of nearly one percent despite the driest monsoon in almost four decades.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, who had earlier forecast the economy would grow by six to 6.5 percent, said he expected expansion of "around seven percent this year."
Sonam Udasi, head of research at Mumbai investment house BRICS Securities, told AFP: "On a best case basis we could get 7.5 percent (growth). I'm betting on 7.1-7.2 percent."
Expansion in the September quarter was led by manufacturing, which surged 9.2 percent while social spending climbed 12.7 percent, reflecting big government outlays to shore up the economy.
Government consumption was up 27 percent from a year earlier.
Analysts said the data would stoke debate over when the central bank should raise borrowing rates from record lows as it seeks to fight rising inflation and keep economic growth on track.
Food costs have been soaring as a result of the bad monsoon, hitting an annual rate of 15.58 percent last week.
While overall inflation measured by the Wholesale Price Index is still a benign 1.34 percent, the central bank expects inflation to hit 6.0 to 6.5 percent by March. Some economists expect inflation to reach eight percent.
But the odds are still tilted in favour of interest rates remaining on hold until at least January and possibly April while the central bank waits to ensure the strong growth is entrenched, economists said.
Given the heavy influence of policy stimulus in the growth numbers, bank policymakers are unlikely to take swift steps to roll back stimulus, said Nikhilesh Bhattacharyya, economist at Moodys Economy.com.
"The central bank will most probably review economic conditions early next year," when the effects of the weak monsoon on the economy will be more visible, Bhattacharyya said.
Economists expected the central bank to start unwinding stimulus by starting to siphon off liquidity in the banking system before raising its trend-setting repo rate which stands at 3.25 percent.
The government has said a key concern is to steer the economy back to annual growth of nine-percent-plus, enjoyed before the global meltdown.
Such expansion is needed to significantly dent poverty, the government says.
"It's important for the Reserve Bank to maintain policy rates at the current levels in order to prevent the growth momentum from slackening," said Chandrajit Banerjee, director general of the Confederation of Indian Industry.
The economy logged 6.1 percent growth in the previous quarter to June.
Asia as a whole has witnessed strong growth as it pulls out of the global slump, with China growing 8.9 percent in the third quarter -- the fastest pace in a year.
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