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Japan economy contracts sharply in fourth quarter
By TOMOKO A. HOSAKA,Associated Press Writer AP - Monday, February 16
TOKYO - Japan's economy contracted at the fastest pace in 35 years in the fourth quarter as a collapse in global demand drained life from the world's second-biggest economy.
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Japan's gross domestic product, or the total value of the nation's goods and services, dropped at an annual pace of 12.7 percent in the October-December period, the government said Monday.
That's the steepest drop for Japan since the oil shock of 1974 and far outpaces declines of 3.8 percent in the U.S. and 1.2 percent in the euro zone. A survey of economists by Kyodo news agency had projected an 11.6 percent contraction.
Japan now faces "the worst economic crisis in the postwar era," said Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano, according to Kyodo news agency.
Already, Toyota Motor Corp., Sony Corp. and a slew of other companies have announced deep job cuts and projected net losses for the full fiscal year through March. The yen's appreciation, which erodes income from abroad has only intensified the pain.
Japan's economy has now contracted for three straight quarters. Compared to the third quarter, GDP fell 3.3 percent. For all for 2008, it contracted 0.7 percent _ the first decline in nine years, according to the Cabinet Office.
Martin Schulz, an economist at Fujitsu Research Institute in Tokyo, said the three main pillars that lifted Japan out of the so-called "lost decade" of the 1990s had crumbled _ favorable exchange rates, overseas investment and demand, and old industry such steel, cars and chemicals.
"The recovery was unsustainable," Schulz said. "It was built on a major global bubble, and now basically the economy is paying the price."
Japan's exports plummeted a record 13.9 percent in the fourth quarter, the government said, as the deepening global slowdown choked off demand for the country's cars and gadgets.
The figures underscore the vulnerability of Asia's export-driven economies during global downturns and point toward more cuts in jobs, production and profits in the coming months. Even demand from emerging markets, which earlier had partly offset declines in North America and Europe, began falling sharply in the fourth quarter.
Last week, electronics company Pioneer Corp. said it will cut 10,000 jobs globally, joining a growing list of the country's corporate giants scrambling to slash their payrolls. Sony is shedding 8,000 workers, while Nissan Motor Co. and NEC Corp. are each cutting 20,000.
Japan slipped into recession in the third quarter after its economy contracted two straight quarters _ a common definition of recession _ though many economists using other parameters say that the current downturn actually began in late 2007.
In its latest forecast, the International Monetary Fund predicts Japan's economy will shrink 2.6 percent this year, outpacing the 2 percent overall decline it expects for advanced economies.
To spur growth, Japan's parliament passed a contentious 4.8 trillion yen ($52.2 billion) stimulus plan in January that includes a cash payout that amounts to 12,000 yen ($133) per Japanese taxpayer. Prime Minister Taro Aso _ who faces dismal approval ratings _ has championed the idea, saying it will stimulate sagging consumer spending.
But the public appears to see the handouts as a lavish waste of public money with limited impact.
"With an election coming up, we believe Japanese policy will tend to put priority on boosting approval ratings rather than GDP," said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo, in a recent report.
Media reports over the weekend said Japan may be considering additional measures to shore up the economy with fresh spending likely to top 10 trillion yen ($109 billion).
Japan's central bank, which lowered its key interest rate to 0.1 percent in December, has introduced various steps to try to thaw a corporate credit crunch. But there is little it can do to address the unprecedented decline in external demand.
The Bank of Japan policy board is scheduled to start a two-day meeting Wednesday.
In stock trading, the benchmark Nikkei 225 index was down 0.2 percent at 7,773.03.
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