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Slideshow Colombian peace deal would not end all violence: report Tweet Share this Email Print Related News Top Colombian drug lord captured in Venezuela Wed, Sep 19 2012 Colombia's Santos rejects FARC call for ceasefire Thu, Sep 6 2012 Colombia's FARC rebels to ask government for ceasefire Thu, Sep 6 2012 Colombia names team for peace talks with FARC rebels Wed, Sep 5 2012 Colombian peace talks to begin in October in Norway Tue, Sep 4 2012 Related Topics World » By Jack Kimball BOGOTA | Tue Sep 25, 2012 4:04am EDT BOGOTA (Reuters) - A peace accord with Marxist FARC rebels would not likely end all bloodshed in Colombia because breakaway renegade fighters and other drug-funded crime gangs would continue to battle government troops, an influential think-tank said on Tuesday. Half-way through his four-year term, President Juan Manuel Santos is taking the biggest political gamble of his career, negotiating with leftist rebels to try to end a nearly five-decade war that has killed tens of thousands of people. The talks, which were announced after two years of secret negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as the FARC, are the first attempt in a decade to end the war and will start in Norway next month then move to Cuba. "Fears over peace talks are tactically exaggerated by their opponents. But those promoting a political settlement also need to keep expectations in check. A deal would not eliminate violence," the Brussels-based International Crisis Group said. "It likely would fail to convince some FARC elements to lay down arms, notably those deeply involved in the drugs trade. There would still be significant security threats from illegal armed groups rooted in the officially demobilized paramilitaries and from other organized criminal gangs." After pushing through major reforms such as giving back land to displaced peasants, which were seen as paving the way for talks, Santos is trying to do what no other government since 1964 has been able to do - reach a deal with the FARC. The last attempt at peace more than a decade ago collapsed and was seen as having helped the FARC build up their fighting forces. But 10 years later the rebels are at the weakest in their history after heavy blows to their leadership and funding. In a 32-page report, the International Crisis Group said that Colombia probably had a "more than even chance" of succeeding in negotiations this time, as the government faces fewer obstacles and a majority of Colombians support the talks. Santos promises his government has learned from the mistakes of previous leaders who tried but failed to clinch a lasting deal, and he has been cautious when talking about the possible success of the discussions. POLITICAL FUTURE A Colombian intelligence source told Reuters that some FARC commanders in southern Colombia, where soil conditions are perfect for cultivation of coca - the raw material for cocaine - are against the peace talks. Santos' government and the FARC have set an agenda for talks that includes the rights of victims, land ownership in rural areas and cocaine production and smuggling. The success of peace talks will also determine whether Santos, who was a defense minister in former President Alvaro Uribe's government, stands for re-election in 2014 and whether his ruling coalition will stay together. The stakes are high for both sides. "Engaging in peace talks with FARC is a bold gamble. Failure would significantly damage the political capital of the Santos administration and likely pave the way for hardliners to return to power in the 2014 elections, closing the window for a negotiated settlement for a long time," the group said. "For FARC, failure would likely have grave consequences, especially if it bore most of the blame. Having lost a possibly last chance to end the conflict with a political deal and recognition of its struggle, it could anticipate a future of complete political irrelevance, further heavy military pressure and increasing internal tensions." (Reporting by Jack Kimball; Editing by Helen Murphy and Cynthia Osterman) World Related Quotes and News Company Price Related News Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (0) Be the first to comment on reuters.com. Add yours using the box above. 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