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Read more with google mobile : OPEC wild cards: Size of output cuts, Russian help
Navigation Primary Navigation Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Secondary Navigation Africa Europe Latin America Middle East North America Search Search: OPEC wild cards: Size of output cuts, Russian help By GEORGE JAHN,Associated Press Writer AP - Tuesday, December 16 ORAN, Algeria - Even before a single barrel of oil is cut from world production, OPEC's strategy of talking up the price of the cartel's commodity appears to be working. OPEC oil ministers will not be deciding on how to prop up the value of crude until Wednesday. Yet a volley of comments from major players within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has already generated the buzz of a substantial production cutback. That _ and the prospect that crude heavyweight Russia will align its strategy with the 13-nation cartel to bolster prices _ has the market listening ahead of the Wednesday meeting. OPEC rarely tips its hand ahead of its decisions. But in a hint of what could come out of the ministers' gathering, OPEC President Chakib Khelil evoked OPEC's last Algeria meeting four years ago, where "we reduced by 2 million barrels." "It was a historic conference, and it enabled us to meet the challenge of falling markets," he told reporters. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is desperate to support crude prices, which have plummeted since the summer amid evaporating demand due to the global financial crisis. Khelil said that a "fair price" for oil should be around $70 to $80 per barrel _ the benchmark for several OPEC members below which they lose money on production. OPEC, however, must weigh production cuts against the potential of further restricting investment in a widespread recession. A senior OPEC official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly, said "reasonable" OPEC nations would accept prices around $50 a barrel in the short term so as not to contribute to the world economic downturn. Benchmark crude was trading higher Monday, near $49 a barrel, on the expectations of a substantial OPEC cut and Russia's support of such a move. While that is still more than 60 percent below what a barrel of crude was fetching in July, it also represents a jump of more 20 percent from its four-year low earlier this month of $40.50 a barrel. Crude's climb over the past week was a break with recent trends, with prices taking their cues from the world economic situation and falling stock markets that have dragged oil down with them. In its latest monthly report, the International Energy Agency revised down worldwide growth forecasts for this year to 1.2 percent, or 1 million barrels a day, from 1.5 percent last month _ and said further cuts could lie ahead. High world oil prices are cutting into U.S. and European demand, the report said. "We will certainly see prices above $100 a barrel again," said Ehsan Ul Haq, chief analyst at Vienna's JBC Energy. But because of the stubbornly poor world economic situation, "I don't think it will happen in 2009." Still, with both OPEC and Russian officials talking about the need for cuts, the price picture has turned bullish in recent days. Russia is the world's major non-OPEC oil producer, at times churning out even more crude than OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia, which now has an allotted quota within the cartel of around 8.5 million barrels a day. Even short of membership, any Russian alignment with OPEC _ formal or not _ would have significant implications on supply. Russia and OPEC together produce about 50 percent of the world's crude and a jointly enacted cut would send a worrying signal to the U.S. and other major consumers _ even at a time when demand for crude is declining amid the global economic downturn. Mindful of the big footprint on prices of an OPEC-Russia axis, Khelil played up Russian support when he arrived Monday at the Mediterranean port city of Oran for the ministerial meeting. "We expect concrete support from them" said Khelil, who is also Algeria's energy minister. "We always wanted them to join OPEC." He would not predict whether a formal announcement on Russian membership was in the offing in Oran but noted that the 20-member Russian delegation was headed by Igor Sechin, Russia's deputy prime minister for energy. "I hope the importance of their delegation is a measure of the importance of the decision they'll announce," he said. But while such statements are short-term price drivers, they could backfire if the Russians do not meet expectations that they will cut 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day from their production. The Kremlin has traditionally viewed itself as a leader in the market, not the kind of team player OPEC hopes for. Additionally, confusing signals from Russian officials _ with some for, others against marching alongside OPEC _ are muddying the picture ahead of Wednesday's meeting. A luke-warm Russian response to OPEC's bids for unity could thus undercut prices, as would a production cut that investors deem too small. To be believable, the group has to take at least 2 million barrels a day off the market _ as well as persuading the world that members bound by quotas are complying with an October agreement to reduce output by a daily 1.5 million barrels to just over 27 million barrels a day. "They have to shock the system, and they also have to demonstrate that they are complying with their output quotes," said analyst John Hall. He estimated total OPEC daily overproduction at between 750,000 and 1 million barrels. And Christoffer Moltke-Leth, head of sales trading at investment firm Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, said that unless the ministers "really surprise the market," with a deep bite out of present production, "this cut may not support the price much." ___ Associated Press writers Alfred de Montesquiou in Oran, and Pablo Gorondi in Budapest, Hungary, contributed to this report. Email Story IM Story Printable View Blog This Recommend this article Average (0 votes) Sign in to recommend this article » Most Recommended Stories » Related Articles: Oil Price Hike Oil falls after brief surge above 50 dollarsAFP - Tuesday, December 16 Three-month decline in gas prices stalls brieflyAP - Tuesday, December 16 OPEC wild cards: Size of output cuts, Russian helpAP - Tuesday, December 16 Oil price surges past $50 per barrel in New YorkAFP - Tuesday, December 16 Related Articles: World Leader of NM sect guilty in child sex caseAP - 24 minutes ago Texas sect elder gets 30 years for molesting girlAP - 24 minutes ago Ex-Ecuadorean strongman Febres Cordero diesAP - 28 minutes ago Govt: Pool drains have to be safer or shut downAP - 34 minutes ago Wis. legislator arrested on alcohol, pot chargesAP - 37 minutes ago Related Full Coverage oil price hike oil price hike All Full Coverage Most Popular – World Viewed Actress Jennifer Aniston appears naked in GQ magazine Queen Elizabeth II reins in extravagance as credit crunch grips US pyramid fraud scam hits Europe's biggest bank Bush laughs off Iraq flying shoes drama White House: no action on auto bailout while Bush in Iraq View Complete List » Search: Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular
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Tuesday, 16 December 2008 - OPEC wild cards: Size of output cuts, Russian help