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Read more with google mobile : Fed eyes record low interest rates to battle deflation
Navigation Primary Navigation Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Secondary Navigation Search Search: Fed eyes record low interest rates to battle deflation AFP - 2 hours 59 minutes ago WASHINGTON (AFP) - - Federal Reserve policymakers were expected to lower key rates close to zero Tuesday in the latest effort to battle a crippling credit crunch and stave off deflation, analysts said. But with the economic mired in recession and low rates ineffective in stimulating activity, the central bank headed by Ben Bernanke will likely look at a range of exceptional actions to get credit flowing again. The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was expected to cut its base lending rate from the current level of 1.0 percent, even if the move would be largely symbolic. The meeting opened Monday and was set to conclude Tuesday around 1915 GMT. Many analysts are anticipating a half-point cut, which still would be an all-time low for the rate. "It would be surprising if the Fed were to do anything other than cut the funds rate by 50 basis points," said Ian Shepherdson at High Frequency Economics. "We think the case for cutting even further is very strong but Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues may want to keep something in reserve." Futures market trading suggests a strong likelihood of a cut in the federal funds rate to as low as 0.25 percent, which would represent a sharp cut of three-fourths of a point. But the Fed's low rates have not yet filtered into many consumer and business loans, and the central bank is likely to expand its arsenal of extraordinary actions to break the global credit crunch and avert a crippling deflationary spiral, say analysts. "With all of its rate-cutting ammunition effectively spent -- it is possible the funds rate could be cut to zero, but we believe this would cause undue strain in the money markets -- the Fed will likely focus its efforts on unconventional policy options in its efforts to stabilize the economy and the financial markets," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief US economist at Deutsche Bank, who sees a half-point cut. More significant may be what the Fed says and does besides moving the funds rate target. The Fed is using a tool employed by Japan in the 1990s that economists call quantitative easing -- which means the central bank is effectively "printing money" to pump it into the system and stimulate lending. Analysts say Bernanke and other Fed members have not explicitly acknowledged the technique but will likely be forced to do so some time soon. Complicating the Fed's task is a growing expectation of falling prices that could set off a deflationary spiral hard to counter. The extraordinary actions on the bond market underscore the conundrum for the central bank. Yields on some short-term Treasury bills became negative for the first time -- meaning investors are willing to give up a bit of their capital for the safety of US government debt in view of a deflation threat. At the same time, the Treasury in the past week issued 30 billion dollars in bills at a rate of zero percent, highlighting the same fears. The effective federal funds rate on the futures market has fallen near zero as well -- as low as 0.0625 percent -- despite the Fed target of 1.0 percent, because of the exceptional amounts of liquidity being pumped into the system. "The Fed basically lost control of the rate after the Lehman Brothers failure on September 15," said Jeremy Siegel, a University of Pennsylvania economist and adviser to Rittenhouse Asset Management. "With the effective real market rate now at zero, what difference does a cut make?" said John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Advisors. "I hope they do the right thing and go ahead and cut at least 75 basis points, if not more. That would stop the speculation and let them move on to quantitative easing and other allied policies." Wells Fargo economist Eugenio Aleman said the Fed must publicly address speculation in the media about its actions, including some reports that it would seek to target mortgage rates at 4.5 percent, which he said is causing potential home buyers to wait for such efforts. "This speculation is plain and simply delaying a recovery in the US housing market," Aleman said. "This speculation has a similar effect to the speculation that the government is going to come to the rescue of all of those who made terrible investment decisions; it is just making things worse." Email Story IM Story Printable View Blog This Recommend this article Average (0 votes) Sign in to recommend this article » Most Recommended Stories » Enlarge Photo The US Federal Reserve building in October 2008 in Washington, DC. Policymakers at the US central bank are expected to lower key rates close to zero in the latest effort to battle a crippling credit crunch. Most Popular – Top Stories Viewed Actress Jennifer Aniston appears naked in GQ magazine US pyramid fraud scam hits Europe's biggest bank Bush laughs off Iraq flying shoes drama Queen Elizabeth II reins in extravagance as credit crunch grips Arabs hail shoe attack as Bush's farewell gift View Complete List » Search: Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular
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Tuesday, 16 December 2008 - Fed eyes record low interest rates to battle deflation