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S.Korea inflation pressures build, PPI hits 10-mth high
Reuters - 1 hour 33 minutes ago
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* Annual rate of 2.8 percent highest since March 2009
* Fresh evidence of building consumer inflation pressures
* 13 of 14 analysts see no rate change on Thursday: poll
* But 8 of 14 analysts see rate rise in H1
By Seo Eun-kyung
SEOUL, Feb 9 - South Korea producer price inflation hit a 10-month high in January, providing fresh evidence of growing consumer inflation pressure in the pipeline and adding to the case for a central bank interest rate increase soon.
The central bank will review rate policy on Thursday, after having held the benchmark rate at a record low of 2.0 percent for the past 11 consecutive months to ride out the global economic crisis.
Thirteen out of the 14 analysts surveyed by Reuters forecast the Bank of Korea would keep the base rate steady again, but believed it would hint at a possible increase at any time as price pressures build. [ID:nTOE6110C0]
"The central bank is now facing a much tougher decision as it has to deal with rising inflation pressures and growing uncertainty in the global economy at the same time," said Yang Jin-mo, a fixed-income analyst at SK Securities.
"It will likely keep rates unchanged this time but give a strong warning against inflationary threats driven by fast growth and ample liquidity," he said.
Front-end treasury bond futures <KTBc1> gave up most of their earlier gains of as much as 15 ticks after the PPI data.
The producer price index in January rose 2.8 percent from a year earlier, its fastest gain since March last year and up from a 1.8 percent rise in December that ended seven consecutive months of annual declines, central bank data showed on Tuesday.
On a monthly basis, Janaury PPI rose 0.7 percent, its third monthly gain and accelerating from a 0.5 percent rise in December.
"Given the high level of oil prices compared with a year ago, producer prices will likely rise further, which will add pressure to consumer prices one or two months later," said Lee Byung-doo, an economist at the Bank of Korea.
Government data last week showed consumer price inflation in Asia's fourth-largest economy hit a 9-month high of 3.1 percent in January, although much of the gain came from higher food prices after heavy snowfalls.
The central bank has expressed concerns that leaving rates too low for an extended period of time could allow inflationary pressures to build, but the government is strongly opposed to early policy tightening, fearing it could threaten the country's economic recovery.
Analysts have also pushed back their bets on the timing of a rate rise after recent data showed the economy lost much of its steam in the last quarter of 2009, and amid recent markets worries about China's crackdown on credit growth and growing debt problems in Europe.
Four of the 14 analysts polled now see expect the central bank's first rate rise in the second quarter, with six others expecting it in the second half. A poll last month showed seven out of 10 analysts expected a rate rise in February or March.
One-year interest rate swaps <KRQMCD1Y=KMBC> have tumbled more than 30 basis points since early January while the futures contract has jumped about 150 ticks.
For a preview of possible scenarios at Thursday's rate meeting, see [ID:nSGE61808O]
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