InfoAnda - SCENARIOS-What's next for AIG's stalled Taiwan unit sale?

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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail More Yahoo! Services Account Options New User? Sign Up Sign In Help Yahoo! Search web search Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Singapore Asia Pacific World SCENARIOS-What's next for AIG's stalled Taiwan unit sale? Reuters - Thursday, July 8 Send IM Story Print By Faith Hung TAIPEI, July 7 - Pressure is growing on AIG <AIG.N> to close the stalled $2.2 billion sale of its Taiwan Nan Shan Life insurance unit after the collapse of its planned $35.5 billion sale of its Asian life assets to Britain's Prudential <PRU.L>. However, Taiwan regulators have yet to decide on the sale, first agreed in late 2009, amid concern the buyer group, led by China Strategic <0235.HK>, is backed by Chinese money, lacks experience in the insurance business and lacks the ability to raise money for future operations. What would it take for the sale to go through and what would happen if the deal gets blocked? Here are two scenarios. WHAT IT WOULD TAKE FOR THE DEAL TO CLOSE Probability of the deal being approved: medium * The buyer group would need to convince Taiwan regulators they are committed to running Nan Shan for seven years and would be able to raise money for future operations. AIG and China Strategic said in June they had agreed to place $325 million of the purchase price in escrow for four years on completion of the deal to serve as extra capital. Some Taiwanese banks have agreed to give the buyer group a $700 million syndicated loan, while China Strategic said it has raised $1.5 billion from its shareholders. But regulators say the buyers have yet to provide sufficient documents to prove they are not simply looking to make a quick profit on the Nan Shan investment and exit the Taiwan market. One thing that would help is if AIG and the buyer group place the escrow fund in a Taiwan onshore bank to show their dedication to the Taiwan market, said a source close to the situation. The fund is currently set to be placed in a Citigroup <C.N> account, according to China Strategic CEO Raymond Or Ching-fai. * More major China Strategic shareholders need to quit their roles in the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference , an advisory group to China's parliament. China Strategic's Or resigned in June from the CPPCC to ease pressure from Taiwan regulators. But at least five other company executives also sit on the CPPCC, Taiwan regulators say. "If Taiwan regulators specifically say that our shareholders with CPPCC connections cannot sit on Nan Shan's board, we would ask them to quit," Or told Reuters last week. DEAL BLOCKED OR NO DECISION BY DEADLINE Probability of rejection or no decision: high * Two sources with direct knowledge of the situation said Taiwan regulators are waiting for the buyers to pull out after the deal's deadline, recently extended to October, expires. Nan Shan policyholders make up almost a fifth of Taiwan's population and its proposed sale has triggered popular protests. With major local elections due at end of the year, the government may well want to avoid making a decision. Another sign of trouble is that Gary Kuo, the Taiwan chief of Morgan Stanley <MS.N>, which advised AIG on the deal, left the firm last week. The sources in the story did not wish to be identified because of the sensitive nature of the matter. A possibility is that AIG puts Nan Shan for sale again. Nan Shan would be worth more than last year, when financial markets were just beginning to recover from the global economic slowdown, analysts said. If Nan Shan comes back on the market, Chinatrust Financial <2891.TW>, which had lost out to China Strategic in the bidding process in 2009, said it will bid. [ID:nTOE66503S] Other previous rival bidders could also put their hats in the ring again, including a consortium of Fubon Financial <2881.TW> and Carlyle Group [CYL.UL], analysts said. * An initial public offering of Nan Shan would also be an option, though it could take longer for AIG to pocket the money. (Additional reporting by Michael Flaherty in Hong Kong; Editing by Jonathan Standing and Muralikumar Anantharaman) Recommend Send IM Story Print Related Articles Former UBS private wealth head joins Samoset Reuters - 26 minutes ago Quebec aluminum smelter hit by power failure Reuters - 28 minutes ago IMAX to install 5 digital theatres in Philippines Reuters - 29 minutes ago FACTBOX-Five facts about Russian tycoon Pugachev Reuters - 31 minutes ago Spill spells more trouble for Florida real estate Reuters - 35 minutes ago News Search Top Stories Europe imposes caps on banker bonuses Israel trumpets new era in US ties after summit German industry hit by sudden fall in orders Hollywood star Lindsay Lohan jailed for 90 days Obama denies any Israel, US rift More Top Stories » ADVERTISEMENT Most Popular Most Viewed Most Recommended Hollywood star Lindsay Lohan jailed for 90 days Paris Hilton arrested after Brazil World Cup match: reports BP chief executive 'on visits to important partners' BP agrees to inform US ahead of transactions Pamplona bans vuvuzelas ahead of bull run festival More Most Viewed » Reclusive top mathematician turns down prize, again Aussie men shoot each other in buttocks 'to see if it hurts' Amputee cat gets bionic legs Fans gather for Michael Jackson death anniversary Who's right - the dolphin or the octopus? 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