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Analysis: Marines leave Iraq again _ for good?
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Analysis: Marines leave Iraq again _ for good?
By ROBERT BURNS,AP National Security Writer -
Tuesday, January 26
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WASHINGTON – It is easily lost in the hopefulness of the Marines' departure from Iraq _ hailed in ceremonies as "the final chapter" _ that this is not the first time they left in the expectation of never returning.
Will it be the last?
In September 2003 the Marines completed a pullout from Iraq _ leaving to the Army the task of winding down the war _ only to be called back in March 2004 amid a fast-boil insurgency centered in the western province of Anbar. The war, of course, was far from over, but few foresaw the scope of killing and chaos to come.
This time it's different. The insurgency is diminished, and while Iraq's episodic political turmoil could upset the timetable for the withdrawal of tens of thousands of U.S. forces this year, it is hard to imagine a circumstance under which President Barack Obama would respond to crisis in Iraq by sending back the Marines.
That's not to say that Anbar _ cradle of the Sunni insurgency that brought Iraq to the brink of civil war in 2006 _ is entirely peaceful or that the security gains achieved over the past three years won't unravel.
Maj. Gen. Rick Tryon, the Marine commander who handed over responsibility for Anbar at a ceremony Saturday in Ramadi, the provincial capital, struck a cautionary note in describing the progress he has witnessed.
"There continues to be a lingering element bent on creating havoc," he said.
Marines are well acquainted with havoc. It accompanied them into Iraq and then, for a time, took cover in an illusion of peacefulness. By the time of the Marines' hurried return in March 2004, havoc was back. The following month was the second deadliest month of the war for the Marines: 51 killed in action. The worst was November 2004 with 80 combat deaths, mainly in the battle to eject al-Qaida from the city of Fallujah.
The war started well for the Marines.
In March 2003 they linked up with the Army's 3rd Infantry division to capture Baghdad, break the regime of Saddam Hussein and begin what initially looked like a transition from combat to nation building. In late April they moved to south-central Iraq, a predominantly Shiite area that gave the appearance of moving toward peace.
The top Marine commander in Iraq at the time, Lt. Gen. James Conway, noted at a news conference in September 2003 as the last of his Marines were heading home that he had not lost a single Marine to hostile fire in the five months they had been operating in south-central cities like Karbala, Najaf and Hillah.
"We went in with an attitude that the war was over," Conway said. His point: The focus was on helping the Iraqis get back on their feet and on training their police. Marines used force only when attacked.
Conway had a colorful way of illustrating the welcoming atmosphere in which his Marines were operating.
"Little kids run a quarter mile on a hot pavement with bare feet to wave," he said.
In his account of the war, titled "The Strongest Tribe," author and former Marine Bing West wrote that the south-central part of Iraq was so hospitable to the Marines in the summer of 2003 that the Karbala city council tried to elect a Marine lieutenant colonel its mayor.
But in Anbar, the province that stretches west from Baghdad to the borders of Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, trouble was brewing _ even as the top Army commander in that area was insisting he'd found the key to success.
Maj. Gen. Chuck Swannack, commander of the 82nd Airborne Division, told reporters on Nov. 18, 2003, that he was aware of a need to win Iraqi hearts and minds, but his soldiers were going to hit and hit hard.
He said he was following the advice of a British general in World War II: "Use a sledgehammer to crush a walnut."
"We're going to prosecute the war not holding one hand behind our back," Swannack said.
And he had this to say about the state of affairs that autumn in Fallujah, the epicenter of an insurgency not yet fully understood by the Americans: "The good news is Fallujah has become quite quiet in recent days."
A little less than three months later, Swannack was accompanying Gen. John Abizaid, the top U.S. commander for the Middle East, on a visit to an Iraqi civil defense battalion headquarters in Fallujah when insurgents ambushed them, firing rocket-propelled grenades and spraying gunfire but missing their mark.
In March, Swannack's troops left, replaced by the newly arrived Marines with Conway once again in command.
The insurgency grew more deadly, swallowing Fallujah whole.
Years of hard fighting followed, with the low point for the Marines arguably coming in August 2006. Early that month in Fallujah, the top Marine intelligence officer in Anbar, Col. Pete Devlin, stood before a visitor, Gen. Peter Pace, then the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and delivered a sobering message: al-Qaida was gaining strength and prospects for winning the war, at least the Anbar part, were dim.
In the weeks that followed, however, the now-famous Anbar Awakening, led by tribal leaders fed up with al-Qaida, took hold. Sunni tribes took security into their own hands, helping the Americans and turning around the war.
In April 2007, Conway _ by then commandant of the Marines _ saw on a short visit how things had changed.
"We have turned the corner," he said.
He was proved correct, and almost three years later his Marines were finished with Iraq _ or so they hope.
___
EDITOR'S NOTE _ Robert Burns made 22 reporting trips to Iraq between May 2003 and September 2008. He has covered national security and military affairs for The Associated Press since 1990.
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