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NZ investors seen cheered by election result
Reuters - Sunday, November 9
By Adrian Bathgate
WELLINGTON, Nov 9 - New Zealand's battered financial markets are likely to draw some comfort from the centre-right National Party's emphatic win over the three-term Labour government in this weekend's election.
The main worry for investors had been an indecisive result, followed by a period of political uncertainty, given that New Zealand's proportional voting system has never seen the two major parties win an outright majority.
But National, led by former foreign exchange dealer John Key, with the promised support of two minor parties, emerged as the clear winner.
"The fact that the coalition has a decent majority and a broad mandate to make changes will be seen as a positive," Goldman Sachs JBWere economist Shamubeel Eaqub told Reuters.
"For equities, we think a change in government would be seen as a marginal positive due to slightly more pro-growth policies and reduced red-tape," he added.
Still, few major policy changes had been expected whoever won.
With New Zealand's economy already in recession, and expected to suffer further fallout from the global financial crisis, both the ruling Labour Party and the centre-right National Party had campaigned on a platform of tax cuts and infrastructure spending to help cushion the blow.
National captured 45 percent of the vote and, with the support of the free-market ACT Party and centrist United Future, will lead a centre-right government with 65 seats in a 122 seat parliament.
Key said the economy and global credit crisis would be his priority.
"It certainly focuses the mind, it's potentially a pretty rocky road ahead...I sense the liquidity crisis will remain for some time and will have an impact on the real economy," he said on Radio NZ.
The financial experience of Key, who was global head of foreign exchange for Merrill Lynch, is also expected to be welcomed by markets.
"His background and market experience could be perceived more favourably by market participants given that the country is dealing with a recession as well as the credit crisis," said TD Securities Strategist Joshua Williamson.
A poll last week showed 49.6 percent of respondents thought National was the better party to deal with the current economic turmoil, as opposed to 40.7 percent who picked Prime Minister Helen Clark and Labour.
Williamson added that the presence of small parties in a coalition would make major policy shifts less likely because the dominant party will have to "water down" policies.
New Zealand's stock market and dollar have both been battered in recent months, partly on concerns over the impact of the credit crisis on the country's trade-focused economy.
The benchmark NZX 50 stock index <.NZ50> is off around 30 percent so far this year, while the New Zealand dollar has tumbled from peaks around 0.82 U.S. cents <NZD=> back in March to current levels below 0.60 cents.
For full coverage of the New Zealand election, click on [ID:nWEL376751]
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