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Japan opposition set for win, faces economic woes
Reuters - Friday, August 28
Yoko Kubota
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TOKYO - Frustrated Japanese voters look set to sweep the opposition to victory in Sunday's election, but the novice Democratic Party will quickly face the challenge of an economy suffering from record jobless rates and deflation.
The world's second-biggest economy is struggling to emerge from its worst recession in 60 years and despite a return to growth in the second quarter, the jobless rate hit a record high of 5.7 percent in July, data showed Friday.
"The rise to a record high in the jobless rate was well expected, but the worsening job and income situation highlights worries about the Japanese economy heading into a double dip as government stimulus runs out," said Yuichi Kodama, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance.
A clear Democratic Party win would end more than half a century of almost unbroken rule by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party and break a deadlock in parliament, where the opposition and its allies control the less powerful upper chamber and can delay bills.
Yukio Hatoyama's Democrats have promised to focus spending on households, cut waste and wrest control of policy from the hands of bureaucrats. They also want to forge a diplomatic stance more independent of close security ally the United States.
Financial markets would welcome an end to the political deadlock, but the Democrats' spending plans and pledge to keep the sales tax at its current 5 percent for the next four years has raised concerns about further inflating Japan's already huge public debt.
The Mainichi newspaper, based on a detailed survey, said the Democrats were likely set to win a two-thirds majority in the lower house, a forecast in line with other polls.
A victory of that scale would mean the Democrats would have to pay less attention to their small allies on the left and the right, making policy formation easier.
It would also help them to push through legislation even if they lose an upper house poll set for mid-2010.
ROCKY RECOVERY
Some LDP candidates were catching up with Democratic rivals, but the trend was unlikely to change, the Yomiuri newspaper said.
The Democrats argue their shift in spending priorities towards households and away from companies will stimulate growth by boosting demand at home while they tackle the longer-term problems of a fast-ageing, shrinking population.
"Wage growth has been plunging, and the Democrat's policies will go some way to making up for this," said Simon Wong, regional economist at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong.
"The Democrats should take the first step and implement what they've promised. This should be more effective than another stimulus package," Wong added.
But economists also warn that Japan's nascent recovery faces a rocky road since it was based on short-term stimulus efforts around the world.
Figures released Friday also showed deflation was taking root for the second time in less than five years.
The Democrats, who have publicly declared their support for central bank independence, might nonetheless ask the Bank of Japan to support the economy by keeping interest rates low.
Prime Minister Taro Aso and his business-friendly LDP have sought to woo voters by stressing their efforts to revive the economy with steps including a record budget for the current year.
But Aso and others acknowledge that a rise in corporate activity has not yet filtered through to ordinary citizens.
Voters may hope they will fare better with direct aid rather than the LDP's traditional focus on business, but a new government will face a tough task, said Yoshiaki Kobayashi, professor of political science at Keio University.
"There is no country in the world that has achieved economic growth while their population is shrinking. The question is whether the Democrats would be able to achieve this," he said.
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