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PREVIEW-S.Korea KB Fin Q3 may fall; other banks to shine
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PREVIEW-S.Korea KB Fin Q3 may fall; other banks to shine
Reuters - Friday, October 23
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* What: KB Financial, Shinhan, Samsung Sec July-Sept results
* When: Oct 23 - Oct 30
* Lending margins recover; provision costs weigh
* M&A to be catalyst for 2010: KEB and Woori may be eyed
* Hana may announce rights offer
By Kim Yeon-hee
SEOUL, OCT 23 - KB Financial Group <105560.KS> may report quarterly profits were almost halved due to provisioning costs for bad loans, but earnings at other South Korean banks are likely to rise on a strong pickup in interest margins.
Market interest rates turned higher from the third quarter, boosting interest incomes at banks. Growing expectations are for a rise in policy rates to lift lenders' interest margins further, as government stimulus packages come to an end and signs of asset price bubbles emerge.
"Improvement in net interest margins will continue in the era when interest rates are on the rise," said Sung Byung-soo, a banking analyst of Prudential Investment & Securities.
Analysts said the year ahead could also see South Korea's banking sector faced with a shake-up, with the government set to shed part of its 73 percent stake in Woori Finance Holdings <053000.KS>, South Korea's No. 3 banking group. U.S. private equity house Lone Star [LS.UL] is also gearing up to put its 51 percent of sixth-ranked Korea Exchange Bank <004940.KS> up for sale, according to an industry source.
"M&A issues will also become a catalyst to upgrade banks' valuations with discussions about the privatisation of Woori Finance and the sale of Korea Exchange Bank to intensify," Sung said.
Fourth-ranked Hana Financial Group <086790.KS> may announce a rights offering plan when it reports third-quarter results on Friday, after it said earlier this month it might raise capital in a new share sale.
Local media estimated the size of Hana's rights offering at up to 2 trillion won, and said it could be used to fund its bidding for a domestic rival.[ID:nSEO95311]
INTEREST MARGINS UP
Net interest margins , which make up 70 percent of local banks' earnings, are estimated have risen between 10 and 20 basis points in the third quarter from three months before, analysts say, after 50-70 basis point drop in the first half of this year.
Higher-yielding deposit products with 6-7 percent rates, which South Korean banks had to sell late last year to fill a funding shortage, have been maturing in the second half. Banks now are replacing them with 3-4 percent rate products.
Macquarie Securities expects South Korean banks NIM to pick up by 18-19 basis points in the current quarter from the third.
The higher interest rates would offset slow loans growth which came in at one percent in the third quarter from the second, amid the government crackdown on mortgage loans.
Provisioning costs are unlikely to fall sharply for the rest of this year. Banks are required to dispose of a total of 6-7 trillion won in problem loans by year end, according to the country's bank association.
The massive sale follows government advice for banks to lower their bad loan ratios to one percent by year end from an average 1.50 percent at the end of June, which would lead to another round of heavy charges in the current quarter.[ID:NSEO256556]
KB Financial's heavy exposure to small companies forced it to book more provisioning costs than domestic rivals, while its NIM was estimated to have risen by 4 basis points in the third quarter from the second, Hana Daetoo Securities said.
KB Financial is expected to stage a rebound from the first quarter. It has been looking at acquisition targets, including the South Korean brokerage and fund management arms of U.S. Prudential Financial Inc <PRU.N>, with the proceeds of 1.12 trillion won it raised in August in a new share sale.
By comparison, higher rates have dented investment profits at securities companies which have been suffering from razor-thin stock broking margins.
But a surge in stock markets in the July-September quarter swelled brokering fees and more than doubled quarterly earnings at sector leader Samsung Securities <016360.KS>.
Q3 PROFIT/ FORECASTS
----------------------------------------------------------
COMPANY PROFIT % CHANGE Y/Y DATE
KB Fin 306.8 - 46 Oct 29
Shinhan <055550.KS> 372.1 15 Week of Nov. 2
Woori 283.1 80 Oct 29
Hana 202.7 swings to profit Oct 23
Samsung Sec 76.6 158 Oct 30
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S (Additional reporting by Jungyoun Park; Editing by Valerie Lee)
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