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US Fed ramps up talk of intervention to salvage recovery
AFP - 28 minutes ago
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US Fed ramps up talk of intervention to salvage recovery
WASHINGTON (AFP) - – Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday gave his strongest indication to date that the US central bank will step in to help the fledgling recovery in the world's largest economy.
At a keynote address in Boston, Bernanke said the bank was ready to ramp up extraordinary measures to prime the economy amid sky-high unemployment and the risk of crippling deflation.
Ahead of a key meeting of the Fed's policy-setting panel next month, Bernanke set out the case for intervention, saying "there would appear -- all else being equal -- to be a case for further action."
Bernanke's comments raised already elevated expectations that the Fed is ready to pump billions of dollars into the economy to drag the United States out of a long and painful slump.
"The only remaining uncertainty is the scale of the operation," said Brian Bethune of IHS Global Insight.
Bernanke made his reasons for the move crystal clear: the bank is failing in both of its key aims, of keeping inflation and unemployment at sustainable levels.
With the US jobless rate at close to 10 percent, Bernanke said that "unemployment is clearly too high relative to estimates of its sustainable rate."
Raising the stakes significantly, Bernanke also noted the specter of deflation, which would unleash a debilitating spiral of lower prices and wages that would send firms to the wall.
"Inflation is running at rates that are too low relative to the levels that the (Fed) committee judges to be most consistent with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate in the longer run.
"The risk of deflation is higher than desirable," he said.
Inflation ran at around one percent for the first eight months of this year, far below the Fed's increasingly formal target of two percent.
Among the measures now on the cards, Bernanke said, were Fed moves to buy up long-term securities, essentially pouring money into the economy, and communicating to markets that low interest rates will stay for a long time.
His comments appeared to be vindicated later on Friday when data showed consumer prices increased a scant 0.1 percent in September.
Analysts saw that as a further sign that exceptional Fed measures are on the way.
"It is going to be announced in November, and if there were even the slightest doubts about this, today's surprisingly low core (inflation) reading should seal the deal," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist with Pierpont Securities.
Many analysts saw the figure as definitively ending divisions within the Fed, which saw Bernanke and other "doves" pitched against those who were concerned that fresh measures -- known in economic jargon as quantitative easing or QE2 -- would drive up long-term inflation.
"This is a clear refutation of the arguments advanced by Fed hawks... to the effect that QE1 would drive up inflation. It has not, and Mr Bernanke is now clearly in favor of QE2," said Ian Shepherdson, chief US Economist for High Frequency Economics.
"It is surely just a matter of time before the hawks are sidelined."
Bernanke's position on the Fed board was recently bolstered by the filling of two vacant spots by nominees who are widely considered to side with Bernanke.
"He has the votes," said David Kotok, chairman of Cumberland Advisors.
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