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Factbox - Economic activity in Egypt as protests continue
Reuters - Monday, January 31
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By David Cutler and Patrick Werr
- Security forces and ordinary people tried to stop looters in major Egyptian cities on Sunday after five days of popular protest against the government.
Here is an overview of economic activity in Egypt:
* TRANSPORT AND COMMUNICATIONS
-- The Suez Canal was operating normally, a canal official told Reuters.
-- The head of the Red Sea Ports Authority said all 10 ports under its purview, including Suez, were operating as usual and the authority had received no cancellations from ships headed for Egypt. Other sources confirmed the ports were operating but said the curfew had slowed down work.
-- Domestic air traffic and trains were operating, although officials told passengers to arrive at train stations and airports before the start of curfew at 4:00 p.m. local time.
-- European airlines have cancelled some international flights to Cairo but other flights, including some by EgyptAir, have continued, in some cases with delays.
-- The Cairo metro system was operating but not stopping at Cairo's main Tahrir square, witnesses told Reuters.
-- Cars were driving through Cairo, though traffic was substantially reduced and the military was turning back some people even before curfew. Intercity highways were open.
-- Mobile phone services were working after being shut down in some areas of the country for a day on orders of the authorities. However, phone text messaging has been disabled and internet services have been suspended around the country.
* TOURISM
-- European tour operators have cancelled trips to Cairo; the United States and Turkey offered on Sunday to evacuate citizens wanting to leave Egypt, and other governments have advised their citizens to leave the country or avoid travelling there if possible.
-- But some tourism arrivals were continuing on the Red Sea coast; tour operator Thomas Cook flew a fresh batch of tourists there from Germany on Sunday, a spokeswoman for the company said. The Russian tourist agency said 40,000 Russians at Red Sea resorts would not cut short their holidays.
-- The tourism industry provides about one in eight jobs in the country and generates over 11 percent of gross domestic product. It is a top foreign exchange earner; in the fiscal year to last June 30, Egypt earned $11.59 billion from tourism, while posting an overall current account deficit of $4.3 billion against a deficit of $4.42 billion in the previous year.
* RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL
-- Most shops were closed in Cairo on Sunday, a working day, though a relatively small number of food shops were open. The security situation remained unstable in other major Egyptian cities too, suggesting retail activity was hit there as well.
* BANKS AND FINANCIAL MARKETS
-- Egypt's banks and the stock exchange were closed on Sunday because of the security situation and will remain closed on Monday, officials said.
The government was due to sell a total of 4 billion Egyptian pounds of Treasury bills on Sunday -- 1 billion pounds of 91-day bills and 3 billion pounds of 273-day bills -- but this sale did not go ahead, traders said. It was not clear when the debt would be sold.
* INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY
-- Poor security shut down or disrupted activity at industrial areas near major cities, witnesses told Reuters. At the major Sixth of October industrial area near Cairo, factories were shut and armed guards at the gates, witnesses said.
-- They said some foreign businesses were starting to evacuate some of their staff or dependents; one foreign employee of Italian oil firm ENI said his wife and three children would go but he would stay.
-- In a report on Friday, credit rating agency Fitch said it did not expect Egypt's macroeconomic outlook to change significantly because of the protests; it noted the economy had been recovering well and was on course to grow by almost 6 percent this year, a key government target as it represents the minimum rate needed to absorb new entrants to the labour market. But Fitch said growth this year could be a little lower than originally thought. It cut its outlook for Egypt's rating to negative because of the political uncertainty.
* AGRICULTURE
-- Political protests seem so far to have focussed on Egypt's big cities, leaving the countryside relatively unaffected; this suggests agriculture may have continued largely as normal.
* ECONOMIC BACKGROUND
-- The economy is estimated to have grown by an annualised 6 to 6.2 percent in the October-December quarter, its best performance since the global downturn. Officials cited a recovery in revenue from the Suez Canal and tourism, as well as a stronger construction sector.
-- GDP was $188 billion in current dollars in 2009. Per capita GDP was estimated at $2,269 for 2010.
-- Inflation has eased somewhat but remains at double-digit levels; it was 11.5 percent last fiscal year against 16.5 percent in the previous year, driven mainly by food price rises.
-- Egypt's budget deficit last fiscal year was 8.1 percent of gross domestic product. It aims to keep the deficit at 7.9 percent of GDP this fiscal year, falling to 3.0-3.5 percent in 2014/15, state news agency MENA has said.
-- The United States is a major supplier of wheat, corn, and soybean products to Egypt, almost all through commercial sales; U.S. agricultural sales to Egypt average $2 billion annually.
-- Hydrocarbons play a sizeable role in Egypt's economy; total oil production, however, has declined from a 1996 peak of close to 935,000 barrels per day to about 685,000 bpd. According to the Oil and Gas Journal's January 2010 estimate, Egypt's proven oil reserves stand at 3.7 billion barrels. Over the past decade, Egypt has become a significant natural gas producer and a strategic source for European natural gas.
-- About 18 percent of the population still lives below the poverty line , and about 20 percent has moved in or out of poverty over the last few years, heightening a sense of social insecurity.
SOURCES: Reuters/www.trust.org/alertnet/UN/State Dept/EIA/Trustlaw/Suez Canal authority/World Bank
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