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British PM Brown faces election test in Scotland
Wed Nov 5, 2008 7:44pm EST
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By Stephen Hird
GLENROTHES (Reuters) - A local Scottish election next door to British Prime Minister Gordon Brown's home turf on Thursday will test how he's seen since he won international praise for handling the financial crisis.
Brown's Labor Party is defending a large majority in Glenrothes, next to Brown's own Kirkcaldy constituency, but the party also had a big majority in the constituency of Glasgow East before its shock defeat there on July 24.
Since then Brown has been praised in Britain and abroad for a 400-billion-pound ($632.4 billion) package of loans and guarantees to prop up the financial sector.
Labor has narrowed the Conservative lead nationally to nine percentage points in a YouGov poll published by the Daily Telegraph last Friday, from more than 20 points a few months ago.
But Labor is not thought to have done enough to retain its seat, seen likely to be taken by the Scottish National Party, which also dealt Brown his defeat in Glasgow East.
"Labor made a short-lived fight-back to become joint favorites a few days back, but since then it has been one-way traffic, with all the serious money going on a SNP victory," bookmakers William Hill said.
A Labor insider also downplayed the chances of winning: "We are closing the gap but not fast enough for Thursday."
Defeat would not trigger a general election, due by mid-2010, as Labor still has a comfortable majority in the House of Commons, but it would be another blackeye for Brown and a boost for the Conservatives and their leader David Cameron.
However, a heavy defeat may trigger a renewal of speculation within party ranks about Brown's ability to win the election.
If Labor loses, the Conservatives are likely to tap into the "Change We Need" message used by Barack Obama during his victorious U.S. presidential campaign.
"In these difficult times people everywhere are crying out for change," Conservative Party leader David Cameron said in his congratulatory message to Obama on Wednesday.
With a recession looming, Labor will not have been helped by a slew of poor economic data this week, including weak service sector and factory output figures, although an expected Bank of England rate cut on Thursday could boost business and help mortgage-holders.
© Thomson Reuters 2008 All rights reserved
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