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Full Article Images of January Best photos of the year 2011 Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read Obama proposes $800 million in aid for "Arab Spring" 12:39pm EST U.S. Navy: Iran prepares suicide bomb boats in Gulf 12 Feb 2012 Israel blames Iran after attacks on embassy staff | 3:38pm EST 6 Grammys Surprises: Bon Iver’s Confused, Chris Martin Can’t Sing 12:08pm EST Obama election-year budget aims to spur hiring | 3:48pm EST Discussed 514 FBI warns of threat from anti-government extremists 238 It’s bailout or chaos, PM Papademos tells Greece 173 House Speaker Boehner vows to stop Obama contraceptive rule Watched Humanoid robot makes storefront debut in Valentine's experiment Fri, Feb 10 2012 Huge baby shocks parents Tue, Feb 7 2012 Whitney Houston's body leaves hotel Sat, Feb 11 2012 Asia key as U.S., EU tighten sanctions against Iran Tweet Share this Email Print Related News Iran to announce nuclear progress: Ahmadinejad Sat, Feb 11 2012 Asia giants join Iran diplomacy as sanctions hurt trade Fri, Feb 10 2012 Iran sanctions already hitting oil trade flows: IEA Fri, Feb 10 2012 Iran turns to barter for food as sanctions cripple imports Thu, Feb 9 2012 Signs build that Iran sanctions disrupt food imports Wed, Feb 8 2012 Analysis & Opinion IMF offers best way for China to save Europe Betting on Syriaâ€™s Assad staying in power Related Topics World » China » United Nations » Demonstrators wave the Iranian flag and hold a picture of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a ceremony to mark the 33rd anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, in Tehran's Azadi square, February 11, 2012. Credit: Reuters/Caren Firouz By Peter Apps and Yeganeh Torbati LONDON | Mon Feb 13, 2012 1:17pm EST LONDON (Reuters) - Western states hope new oil sanctions will deter Tehran from pursuing its disputed nuclear program but ultimately it will be China, India and other Asian powers that determine their effectiveness impact on already volatile Iranian politics. Both the United States and European Union have introduced tough new restrictions coming into force later this year and designed to effectively choke off Iran's oil exports. But -- unlike rounds of sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council -- they are not binding on other countries. Although China has almost halved its imports of Iranian oil recently, Chinese officials are negotiating new contracts. Beijing has also made it clear it wants other Asian nations to continue their purchases. India, currently the largest single purchaser of Iranian oil, has struck a deal to pay for new deliveries with shipments of food. The U.S. and EU restrictions effectively block off large parts of the global financial system to purchasers of Iranian crude but also inevitably leave multiple loopholes. "To be truly effective, in this case, sanctions would have to be applied universally and internationally," said Dina Esfandiary, research analyst and sanctions specialist at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies. "That won't happen. They will have some effect, but it will be diluted." What Beijing, New Delhi and others do look to be doing, however, is using the new sanctions and broader diplomatic pressure from Washington in particular to negotiate much better pricing from Tehran. Just how far China and others beat the price down will have dramatic implications for Iran's economy and politics. A parliamentary election is due on March 2 and it will probably deepen an increasingly apparent split within the ruling elite. After the Iranian state's ferocious suppression of street protests in 2009, few expect a reformist revolt and moderate groups will largely ignore the vote. But given their different urban power bases, the rift between nationalists around President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and conservative hardliners loyal to the supreme clerical leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could still spill onto the streets, analysts believe. Recent subsidy cuts have driven up the price of petrol some 280 percent from early 2011 and the price of bread up 25 percent. Analysts say further cuts could fuel discontent and unrest, perhaps also raising the risk of hardline Revolutionary Guard elements attacking foreign targets as a distraction. Radical groups within Tehran's ruling establishment are believed to have been behind the storming of the British embassy in November and perhaps also an alleged attempted assassination of the Saudi ambassador to Washington D.C. In extreme circumstances, some worry that Iranian radicals could also strike crucial oil shipping in the Gulf. Only one thing is certain - the greater the economic squeeze, the greater the need to expect the unexpected. "If the last 13 months in the Middle East has taught us anything, it's the futility of making predictions about how people will react during times of economic disillusionment and political disenfranchisement," said Karim Sadjadpour, associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. Iran denies Western suspicions that it is enriching uranium with the ultimate goal of developing nuclear weapons capability. But investigations by U.N. nuclear inspectors have lent weight to such concerns and Iran has begun higher-grade enrichment in a mountain bunker better protected from air strikes. WIDER GEO-POLITICAL GAME How tight the sanctions screws will be tightened is a big question, particularly as the issue has swiftly been sucked into the quietly growing geo-political face-off between the United States and China. Last year, Beijing was willing to comply with U.N. sanctions and Western efforts to financially starve both Libya's Muammar Gaddafi and Ivory Coast's Laurent Gbagbo by refusing to buy their key oil and cocoa exports. But it is making clear it has no intention of doing the same when it comes to targeting Iran. "China cannot stay aloof from the affair," the Communist Party-run "Global Times" newspaper wrote on January 30, saying Beijing's strategic goals should be to safeguard oil supplies, prevent another Western-backed overthrow of a Middle East government and begin to show greater global leadership. "China should quicken its steps in coordinating with countries in Southeast Asia to try to best form a temporary alliance with them in continuing to buy oil from Iran. Such an alliance is possible, as seen from the hesitation of countries like Japan and India in sanctioning Iran." Not everyone believes that strategy will work. With many countries in Southeast Asia already concerned by China's rise, some suspect many governments will ultimately choose to stick with long-term ally Washington. "China's position on this is driven partly by commercial requirements but also by an ideological underpinning related to national sovereignty," says Michael Denison, a former senior adviser to ex-British Foreign Secretary David Miliband and now research director at London-based consultancy Control Risks. "For other Asian countries, it's going to be a more structured decision in which they balance their commercial interests with their strategic relationship with the United States." Some Western officials say they are largely unworried if some oil trade continues. Even if Asian buyers were to ignore the sanctions completely after they enter force on July 1, Tehran would still be losing trade from Europe. Without new investment and exploration, Iran's oil output will also swiftly begin to fall off. Independent industry analysts forecast it will fall already this year by some nine percent to an average of around 3.3 million barrels per day. IMPACT ON NUCLEAR PROGRAMME? In retaliation for the EU and U.S. sanctions, Iran has threatened to block exports to Europe even before the sanctions enter force, a challenge for financially strapped Mediterranean states like Greece and Spain that have become more dependent on Iranian oil as they struggle to find credit elsewhere. But most experts say Tehran will be the ultimate loser, struggling to make up for the lost sales elsewhere. Given the risks of conflict, few countries seem willing to increase their reliance on Iranian output. With perhaps a view to keeping its options open, China in particular has boosted Saudi purchases and openly increased its contacts with Riyadh. "It's never going to be a complete block but it is going to squeeze them and we hope that will ultimately put pressure on them to pull back on the nuclear issue," said one Western official on condition of anonymity. "There are signs it is already working. When you see barter - such as the Indians paying for their oil with, for example, food - that is having a real impact on (Iranian) revenue." Although imperfect, sanctions were the best option available, he said, with the only real alternative "something much more direct and kinetic" -- euphemism for military action. Whether they will actually have the desired impact on the nuclear program, however, is hotly disputed. The level of domestic popular support for uranium enrichment in Iran is hard to gauge, but many believe it is relatively widespread. Iran says its enrichment work is for peaceful energy only. "While it's difficult to make generalizations, I think sanctions often accentuate people's existing political disposition," said Carnegie's Sadjadpour. "For government critics, it's another example of the regime's disregard for their well-being... but for government supporters, the sanctions provide further fodder to resent Western imperialism." Others disagree. If the sanctions can be made to work well enough to inflict real economic damage, they say, Tehran's leadership will have little choice but to soften its stance. "The moment where Khamenei will change is the moment where the economic consequences of his policies start to threaten the stability of the regime," says Israeli-Iranian Middle East analyst Meir Javedanfar. "That's the moment of truth ... The health of the economy an existential matter for the Islamic Republic. The nuclear program is not." (Editing by Mark Heinrich) World China United Nations Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (1) Life1 wrote: Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Back to top Reuters.com Business Markets World Politics Technology Opinion Money Pictures Videos Site Index Legal Bankruptcy Law California Legal New York Legal Securities Law Support & Contact Support Corrections Advertise With Us Connect with Reuters Twitter Facebook LinkedIn RSS Podcast Newsletters Mobile About Privacy Policy Terms of Use Copyright Our Flagship financial information platform incorporating Reuters Insider An ultra-low latency infrastructure for electronic trading and data distribution A connected approach to governance, risk and compliance Our next generation legal research platform Our global tax workstation Thomsonreuters.com About Thomson Reuters Investor Relations Careers Contact Us Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. 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