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Thursday, 20 October 2011 - Analysis: Libya's next tests: Big expectations, power |
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      Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Home Business Business Home Economy Technology Media Small Business Green Business Legal Deals Earnings Summits Business Video Markets Markets Home U.S. Markets European Markets Asian Markets Global Market Data Indices M&A Stocks Bonds Currencies Commodities Futures Funds peHUB World World Home U.S. Brazil China Euro Zone Japan Mexico Russia Afghan Journal Africa Journal India Insight Global News Journal Pakistan: Now or Never? World Video Politics Politics Home Front Row Washington Politics Video Technology Technology Home MediaFile Science Tech Video Opinion Opinion Home Chrystia Freeland Felix Salmon Jack Shafer Breakingviews David Rohde Bernd Debusmann Gregg Easterbrook Nader Mousavizadeh James Saft David Cay Johnston Edward Hadas Christopher Whalen Ian Bremmer Mohamed El-Erian Lawrence Summers The Great Debate Unstructured Finance Newsmaker Money Money Home Analyst Research Global Investing MuniLand Reuters Money John Wasik Alerts Watchlist Portfolio Stock Screener Fund Screener Personal Finance Video Life & Culture Health Sports Arts Faithworld Business Traveler Left Field Entertainment Oddly Enough Lifestyle Video Pictures Pictures Home Reuters Photographers Full Focus Video Article Comments (0) Libya LIVE COVERAGE: Latest news from Libya Gaddafi killed as Libya's revolt claims hometown Analysis: Death of Gaddafi avoids awkward trial Flamboyant Gaddafi no stranger to bloodshed Gaddafi son Mo'tassim captured alive: TV Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi believed still in desert: NTC Libya's next tests: Big expectations, power plays NATO: aircraft struck Gaddafi vehivles near Sirte The Great Debate: A new beginning for Libya Video: Rebels celebrate Gaddafi's capture Slideshow: Colonel Gaddafi Follow Reuters Facebook Twitter RSS YouTube Read Gaddafi killed as Libya's revolt takes hometown | 11:55am EDT Discussed 118 Strike shuts down Greece before austerity vote 108 Gaddafi captured as he fled Sirte: NTC official 99 Obama jobs roadshow seeks to tap anti-Wall St anger Watched Japanese airline, ANA, apologises for plane flip Fri, Sep 30 2011 Rebels celebrate Gaddafi's capture 8:26am EDT Rihanna's "inappropriate" outfit halts music video Tue, Sep 27 2011 Analysis: Libya's next tests: Big expectations, power Tweet Share this Email Print Related News Timeline: Libya's civil war nears end 7:25am EDT Clinton hails "Libya's victory" on Tripoli visit Tue, Oct 18 2011 WRAPUP 5-Clinton brings unity message on visit to new Libya Tue, Oct 18 2011 NTC forces celebrate capture of Gaddafi bastion Bani Walid Mon, Oct 17 2011 Gaddafi diehards in Sirte hold up Libyan troops Sun, Oct 16 2011 Analysis & Opinion A new beginning for Libya Trusting the masses: US tiptoes into democracy in Pakistan Related Topics World » Libya » Libyans celebrate at Martyrs square in Tripoli October 20, 2011 after hearing the news that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was killed in Sirte. Credit: Reuters/Ismail Zitouny By William Maclean LONDON | Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:46am EDT LONDON (Reuters) - Jockeying for power among Libya's well-armed and fractious new leadership may intensify after the death of deposed autocrat Muammar Gaddafi, an anxious and, for many, joyous moment in a country hungry for stability and impatient to swap the bullet for the ballot box. The interim government will be determined to ensure that lingering pro-Gaddafi forces are prevented from launching any rearguard guerrilla insurgency from the countryside that could destabilize the north African OPEC member and its oil industry. One of Gaddafi's most politically influential sons, Saif al-Islam, and his security chief Abdullah Sanussi are apparently still at large and may still be able to recruit armed followers. But perhaps the most important test for the interim National Transitional Council will be to manage the enormous expectations of Libya's 6 million people, now freed definitively from the fear that Gaddafi could ever reimpose his long strongman rule. "There is now this massive expectation. Up to now they've had an excuse that they are running a war. They don't have that now...Everything now has got to happen," John Hamilton, a Libya expert at Cross Border Information, told Reuters. "That's a hard task. They have to deliver for the people ... On the other hand, this may renew the honeymoon they enjoyed when Tripoli fell, if they can put a decent government together in a short time." The news of Gaddafi's capture and killing came minutes after reports that his hometown Sirte had fallen amid raids by NATO warplanes, extinguishing the last significant resistance by loyalist forces. HUGE TASK AHEAD The capture of Sirte and the death of Gaddafi means Libya's ruling NTC should now begin the task of forging a new democratic system which it had said it would get under way after the city, built as a showpiece for Gaddafi's rule, had fallen. Some fear instability may linger and unsettle that process. "Gaddafi is now a martyr and thus can become the rallying point for irredentist or tribal violence -- perhaps not in the immediate future but in the medium-to-long term," said George Joffe, a north Africa expert at Cambridge University. "The fact that NATO can be blamed for his death is worrying, in terms of regional support, and may undermine the legitimacy of the National Transitional Council." But the interim NTC authorities are also faced with a possibly more critical task, namely getting under control a clutch of anti-Gaddafi armed militias competing, so far peacefully, for ample share of funding and political representation in a post-Gaddafi Libya. Libya expert Alex Warren, of Frontier MEA, a Middle East and north Africa research and advisory firm, said the death of Gaddafi "is clearly a momentous event and far more than just a symbolic one." But he added, of the NTC militias: "These groups need to be either carefully disbanded or integrated into the armed forces ... Questions remain about who these militias answer to, how they manage their relationships with each other and what their demands are." Under rules drawn up by revolutionary forces who overthrew Gaddafi in September, the fall of Sirte will lead to an official declaration that Libya is liberated, which will set in motion a process toward democratic elections. On declaring liberation, the NTC will move its headquarters from Benghazi to Tripoli and form a transitional government within 30 days. A 200-member national conference is to be elected within 240 days, and this will appoint a prime minister a month later who will nominate his government. The national conference is to be given deadlines to oversee the drafting of a new constitution and the holding of elections for a parliament. Some worry that the politicking involved in forming a new government in the coming days may strain to the limit the alliance of convenience between provincial forces that constituted the armed opposition to Gaddafi. Now he is gone, the glue that held the alliance together may fade. Warren said it was not clear whether the current NTC chairman Mustafa Abdel Jalil, widely seen as the most widely supported politician in the NTC, would step down or not. "In the current absence of any other organized political institutions, it is vital that there is leadership to oversee crucial elements of the transition, including the licensing of political parties, the organization of elections, and the disbanding or reintegration of militias," he said. In recent weeks Tripoli has seen an apparent competition for the title of top militia in the capital, where the many armed groups now exercising authority in the city portrayed themselves as the sole legitimate security force. U.S. Republican Senator John McCain called on the NTC during a visit to Libya last month to move quickly to get the armed groups under their control. "This is an end of one era but the fight over the new government has started already," said Ali Abdullatif Ahmida, a Libyan political scientist at the University of New England. "It all depends on how the NTC leadership heals the country and reconciles people ... or takes revenge and settles scores. That may be a dangerous road." (Editing by Sonya Hepinstall) World Libya Tweet this Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints   We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/ Comments (0) Be the first to comment on reuters.com. Add yours using the box above. Social Stream (What's this?)   Edition: U.S. Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom Back to top Reuters.com Business Markets World Politics Technology Opinion Money Pictures Videos Site Index Legal Bankruptcy Law California Legal New York Legal Securities Law Support & Contact Contact Us Advertise With Us Connect with Reuters Twitter   Facebook   LinkedIn   RSS   Podcast   Newsletters   Mobile About Privacy Policy Terms of Use Our Flagship financial information platform incorporating Reuters Insider An ultra-low latency infrastructure for electronic trading and data distribution A connected approach to governance, risk and compliance Our next generation legal research platform Our global tax workstation Thomsonreuters.com About Thomson Reuters Investor Relations Careers Contact Us   Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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