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Pakistan rates to rise under any IMF deal-govt source
Reuters - Tuesday, November 11
By Sahar Ahmed
KARACHI, Nov 10 - An expected IMF loan package for Pakistan is likely to include an interest rate increase of up to 150 basis points, a government official who declined to be identified said on Monday.
Pakistan is facing a balance-of-payments crisis and has been in talks with the International Monetary Fund but it says it hopes to avoid having to go to the IMF and is trying to secure help from allies and other multilateral lenders.
The country needs $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion quickly to fill a financing gap and $10 billion to $15 billion to avoid a balance of payment crisis and make adjustments over the next two years.
The government official said the size of a possible IMF loan had not been officially agreed but it was likely to be a 2-year facility and would include steps to tighten monetary policy.
On interest rates, the official said: "It is my understanding that the discount rate will be increased by 100 to 150 basis points."
The discount rate was last raised in July by 100 basis points to 13 percent.
The official said the IMF would set a fiscal deficit target of 3.9 percent of gross domestic product compared with the government's full-year target of 4.7 percent.
The IMF would also set a tax revenue collection target of 1,360 billion rupees , compared with a government target of 1,251.46 billion rupees, for revenue this fiscal year.
The central bank gave a clear signal of a tighter monetary policy in a Treasury bill auction last week, when it raised its three-month T-bill cut-off yield by 97 points to 13.5313 percent, said the official.
Total foreign reserves, including those held by commercial banks, have fallen sharply from a high of $16.5 billion in October last year, to $6.76 billion on Nov. 1, of which the central bank accounted for $3.53 billion.
The central bank's reserves are equivalent to a little more than October's import bill of $3.46 billion. Big payments for oil and wheat have been major factors behind Pakistan's widening trade deficit.
Pakistan last entered an IMF programme in December 2001 when it was granted a $1.5 billion poverty reduction and growth facility. It received $1.26 billion under the three-year programme and in November 2004 declined the last two tranches.
The government said on Monday the cabinet would hold a special session soon to discuss the ailing economy.
The government's top economic adviser, Shaukat Tarin, met Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani to brief him about the IMF talks and to present a nine-point economic agenda, the prime minister's office said.
"A special cabinet meeting will soon be called to discuss the country's future economic plan," the office said. It gave no details. (Additional reporting by Zeeshan Haider; Writing by Robert Birsel; Editing by Toby Chopra)
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