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Yahoo! My Yahoo! Mail Yahoo! Search Search: Sign InNew User? Sign Up News Home - Help Navigation Primary Navigation Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Secondary Navigation Singapore Asia Pacific World Search Search: GRAPHIC-S.Korea's 'March crisis' not showing up in markets Reuters - Thursday, March 19 By Eric Burroughs and Kevin Plumberg ADVERTISEMENT HONG KONG, March 19 - South Korea is supposed to be in the grips of a financial crisis this month as it struggles to refinance a big debt load due this year, pegged at $194 billion for all banks based in the country. [ID:nSEO210925] But the dire scenario predicted by some analysts -- dubbed the "March crisis" -- has not come to pass. Instead, investors are breathing easier and markets are showing signs of calming down. The won <KRW=> has rebounded from an 11-year low hit earlier in the month just as the FX options <KRWVOL> and offshore forwards market <KRWNDFOR=> see less risk of a further tumble. Cross-currency swaps <KRWCBS=KMBC> signal easing funding strains. Bank shares have rebounded and interest-rate swap spreads <KRWIRS> are tightening. Below are graphics looking at these different market signals. Click on the hyperlinks below to see the graphics. RELATIVE CALM IN FX OPTIONS Since the start of the year, implied volatility on one-month won options has been steady around 30 percent -- a high level but well off the peak near 70 percent hit in October and hardly budging this year even as the won resumed its slide. Risk reversals, a gauge of how the options market is tilting in calls for a given currency pair -- have also showed waning demand for protection against a deeper won drop. One-month risk reversals on dollar/won were quoted at 0.25/2.25 percent favouring dollar calls/won puts, having gradually drifted down to zero. Dollar calls were favoured by as much as 29 percent back in October. > https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/KR_WNP0309.gif IR SWAPS FLAG ABATING FUNDING PRESSURE Korea's three-year interest-rate swap spread remains negative because the fears in government bond markets about stimulus-related supply have driven up treasury yields above swap rates. But the spread -- akin to the TED spread <TEDCASH> in the United States -- is much less negative than was last November and even last month when the pressure was most intense in South Korea's interbank market and offshore funding, via cross-currency swaps. A drop in IRS and CD rates also points to limited interbank funding stress. > https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/KR_SWPS0309.gif CDS SPREADS WIDE BUT IMPROVING The fears surrounding South Korea's ability to repay its debts have been most noticeable in the credit default swaps market, where the country's spreads on its dollar debt blew out to a record near 710 basis points in October. But since Korea's benchmark five-year CDS spreads have gradually shrunk, despite all the talk of a "March crisis". Korea's spreads were quoted at 385 basis points <KRGV5YUSAC=MP>, unchanged on the year. Still, reflecting the heightened risk Korea's spreads are closer to those on the junk-rated Philippines <PHGV5YUSAC=MP> than Malaysia <MYGV5YUSAC=MP>, which is rated one notch below Korea by major ratings agencies. >https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/KR_CDS0309.gif BANK SHARES RALLY Shares of Korean banks plunged in October and November of 2008 on fears frozen credit markets would make it difficult for them to refinance their heavy foreign debt load. However, Korean bank stocks fought back in December and January as investors were relieved by a series of government measures, including currency swap lines with the Federal Reserve and government guarantees on debt. A stumble in February has proved fleeting, and Korea's banks are outperforming shares of global banks on a 60-day rolling basis. > https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/KR_BNKS0309.gif FOREIGN LOAN EXPOSURE LIMITED? Pressure on Korean assets has largely revolved around the fact foreign banking claims on the country due in a year amount to some $194 billion, while its reserves total about $200 billion, leaving little wiggle room for Korean borrowers if foreign banks curb their lending further. A closer look, though, shows the country has somewhat limited exposure to a sudden pullback, based on the proportion of Korea's outstanding commercial loans due in 2009 and 2010 to banking centres in advanced economies. > https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/KR_BNKSA0309.jpg > https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/KR_BNKSB0309.jpg (Graphics by Catherine Trevethan; Additional reporting by Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore; Editing by Kazunori Takada) Email Story IM Story Printable View Blog This Recommend this article Average (0 votes) Sign in to recommend this article » Most Recommended Stories » Related Articles: Business Oil rises to near $49 as stock rallies boost hopesAP - 1 hour 35 minutes ago Indian bond yields ranged, buyback watchedReuters - 1 hour 45 minutes ago UAE pardons 329 prisoners, cancels their debtReuters - 1 hour 52 minutes ago Indian shares turn negative after early gainsReuters - 1 hour 54 minutes ago FOREX-Dollar limps up from big plunge as Fed goes all outReuters - 1 hour 54 minutes ago Most Popular – Business Viewed AIG boss, and Obama, in firing line in Congress Actress Natasha Richardson dies after ski accident Injured actress Richardson flown to US: hospital Miniature carnivore dinosaurs roamed North America Arrest warrant issued for Lindsay Lohan View Complete List » Search: Home Singapore Asia Pacific World Business Entertainment Sports Technology Top Stories Most Popular Copyright © 2009 Yahoo! 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