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PREVIEW-Taiwan CPI seen up 2 pct y/y in February  
 
 
 
 
 
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PREVIEW-Taiwan CPI seen up 2 pct y/y in February
 
 
  
 
 Reuters - Thursday, March  4
 
 
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WHAT: Taiwan's consumer price index for February
 
WHEN: Friday, March 5 at 4:00 p.m. local
 
REUTERS FORECAST: Median is for CPI to rise 2.0 percent y/y in February vs 0.29 percent in January. The forecast range of 11 economists was from 1.4 percent to 2.7 percent.
 
FACTORS TO WATCH: A rise in February would continue gains from January, when the CPI turned positive for first time in a year. It would also reflect a low base effect from February 2009. Transportation and food prices climbed in the shopping season ahead of the Lunar New Year that began on Feb. 14, while housing prices are still rising. Retail sales have returned to pre-crisis levels, although unemployment remains relatively high. Price rises are likely to continue in 2010, analysts say, as the economy continues to recover.
 
MARKET IMPACT: A 2 percent CPI increase, in line with expectations, would not alter analyst forecasts for the timing of an interest rate rise in Taiwan. The central bank has kept interest rates unchanged for a year and analysts do not see a rise until mid to late 2010. Taiwan stocks <.TWII> and the dollar <TWD=TP> are not expected to move on the data.
 
Forecasts for February CPI (percentage change from a year earlier):
 
Standard Chartered 1.4
 
Capital Securities 1.5
 
JP Morgan 1.6
 
Polaris Research Institute 1.9
 
Barclays 2.0
 
DBS 2.0
 
SinoPac 2.08
 
ING 2.1
 
Chinatrust 2.2
 
Taiwan Securities 2.35
 
Moody's economy.com 2.7
 
MEDIAN 2.0
 
January 0.29
 
-- Jan consumer price index [ID:nTOE613092]
 
-- Taiwan's statistics agency www.dgbas.gov.tw
 
-- All Taiwan economic data <ECONTW>
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
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