InfoAnda - New virus could still mutate, spark pandemic: WHO

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My Profile Top News Reuters top ten news stories delivered to your inbox each day. Subscribe You are here: Home > News > International > Article Home Business & Finance News U.S. Politics International Technology Entertainment Sports Lifestyle Oddly Enough Health Science Special Coverage Video Pictures Your View The Great Debate Blogs Weather Reader Feedback Do More With Reuters RSS Widgets Mobile Podcasts Newsletters Your View Make Reuters My Homepage Partner Services CareerBuilder Affiliate Network Professional Products Support (Customer Zone) Reuters Media Financial Products About Thomson Reuters New virus could still mutate, spark pandemic: WHO Tue May 12, 2009 6:32am EDT Email | Print | Share | Reprints | Single Page [-] Text [+] By Stephanie Nebehay GENEVA (Reuters) - The new H1N1 flu virus could still mutate into a more virulent form and spark an influenza pandemic that could be expected to circle the globe up to three times, the World Health Organization said on Tuesday. The impact of any pandemic would vary, as a virus that causes only mild illness in countries with strong health systems can become "devastating" in those with weak health systems, shortages of drugs and poorly equipped hospitals, it said. The new virus, commonly referred to as swine flu, "appears to be more contagious than seasonal influenza" and nearly the world's whole population lacks immunity to the new disease, the WHO said in a document issued overnight entitled "Assessing the severity of an influenza pandemic." "It attempts to explain different aspects of severity, not just the pathogenicity of the virus but its impact on health and social systems," WHO spokesman Thomas Abraham told Reuters. "It is in response to questions from the public and media." The United Nations agency's pandemic alert level is at 5, its second-highest level on a scale of 1 to 6, he said. This means that the virus shows no signs of sustained person-to-person spread outside North America. Some 5,251 people have been infected in 30 countries, according to WHO's tally on Tuesday, which includes 61 deaths. Hardest hit are Mexico with 2,059 cases, including 56 deaths, and the United States with 2,600 cases including three deaths. So far, with the exception of the deadly outbreaks in Mexico, the virus has tended to cause very mild illness in otherwise healthy people, it said. But influenza viruses mutate frequently and unpredictably and "the emergence of an inherently more virulent virus during the course of a pandemic can never be ruled out," the WHO said. CIRCLING THE GLOBE IN WAVES "The overall severity of a pandemic is further influenced by the tendency of pandemics to encircle the globe in at least two, sometimes three, waves," the WHO said. "For many reasons, the severity of subsequent waves can differ dramatically in some or even most countries," it said. The 1918 influenza pandemic -- which killed tens of millions of people -- began mild and returned within six months in a much more lethal form, it said. The 1968 pandemic began relatively mild, with sporadic cases prior to the first wave, and remained mild in its second wave in most, but not all countries, it said. The new virus appears to be more easily spread than seasonal flu. Regular seasonal flu kills about 250,000 to 500,000 people annually with a fatality rate of less than 0.1 percent. Seasonal flu has a so-called "secondary attack rate" -- the percentage of contacts who catch it from an infected person -- of between 5 and 15 percent, according to the WHO. Continued... View article on single page Share: Del.icio.us Digg Mixx Yahoo! Facebook LinkedIn Next Article: Freed U.S.-born reporter says to rest, be with family Green Business Reuters Green Business Reuters introduces a new section dedicated to the emerging green technology sector, featuring five people to watch in the business of green and our global green portfolio. Full Coverage More International News Pakistan soldiers swoop on Taliban stronghold | Video Accused Nazi guard arrives in Germany to face charges | Video Sri Lanka brushes off criticism over rebel war Pope comes under criticism in Israel | Video Building siege ends in Afghan town after blasts | Video More International News... Related News New flu not quite a pandemic yet: WHO 6:03am EDT Cuba says Mexican has island's first H1N1 flu case 6:03am EDT Mexican tourism could lose $4 billion from flu scare 6:03am EDT Mexican H1N1 flu spreads easily: study 6:03am EDT Featured Broker sponsored link Editor's Choice Slideshow A selection of our best photos from the past 24 hours. 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