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Edition: U.S. Article Comments (0) Save Email Print Reprints Most Popular Most Shared An Obama Reboot? President Proposes Volcker's Glass-Steagall Redux. 5:45am EST Rescue teams pull back as Haiti aid flows in | Video 10:08am EST Salt reduction could save 92,000 lives a year 9:56am EST China downplays Internet feud with United States 10:15am EST UK Stocks -- Factors to watch on Jan 21 2:03am EST Salt reduction could save 92,000 lives a year 9:56am EST Oracle wins unconditional EU approval for Sun buy 8:35am EST An Obama Reboot? President Proposes Volcker's Glass-Steagall Redux. 5:45am EST Love in London is as rare as finding aliens 19 Jan 2010 Obama to outline new limits on bank risk-taking 10:36am EST Google vs China Google faces China questions Investors seek insight into Google's disagreement with China that has cast doubt on its future in the world's largest Internet market. Full Article Google tests loyalties of China's wired generation Google attack puts spotlight on China's "red" hackers Focus on China cyberwar fears What happens next in Google standoff with China? Timeline: Google's rocky road into China Google faces China questions amid solid Q4 Alexei Oreskovic SAN FRANCISCO Thu Jan 21, 2010 9:00am EST Related News RPT-FEATURE-Google tests loyalties of China's wired generation 8:03am EST Google-China spat may hurt Motorola's Android push Wed, Jan 20 2010 PREVIEW-Google faces tough China questions amid strong Q4 Wed, Jan 20 2010 RPT-UPDATE 2-Microsoft seeks to replace Google on iPhone-report Wed, Jan 20 2010 Wall Street frets over Google's future in China Wed, Jan 13 2010 SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Google Inc is expected to deliver stellar fourth-quarter results on Thursday, but investors will be seeking insight into a disagreement with China that has cast doubt on its future in the world's largest Internet market. Technology | Media A strong online holiday shopping season, improving advertising rates and market share gains should help Google, the world's No. 1 Internet search engine, deliver its most robust revenue growth in a year, analysts say. Some say Google's shares, hurt by the simmering spat with the world's No. 3 economy, have room to rise. They are down 8 percent since hitting a 52-week high of $629.51 on the first trading day of 2010. "The buy side is looking for pretty strong results on the quarter," said Kaufman Brothers analyst Aaron Kessler. He noted that the unofficial "whisper" numbers among investors have Google's fourth-quarter net revenue growing between 13 percent and 15 percent from the third quarter's $4.38 billion. That's slightly better than the 12.3 percent sequential growth expected on average, which pegs Google's fourth-quarter revenue at $4.92 billion, excluding traffic acquisition costs. Estimates from Thomson Reuters StarMine, which places more weight on recent forecasts by top-rated analysts, also forecast revenue of $4.92 billion. Google, which beat Wall Street EPS forecasts in each of 2009's first three quarters, has weathered the recession and ad spending slump better than many of its peers, even as its once-supercharged growth suffered a sharp slowdown. But while other Internet companies like Yahoo Inc and AOL Inc are still looking for light at the end of the tunnel, Google regained its momentum in the third quarter with a better-than-expected earnings report that sent its shares up 3.7 percent the following day. While Google's share price doubled in 2009, JMP Securities analyst Sameet Sinha said he believed it could keep rising in 2010 as the economy recovers and Google expands its footprint in different types of advertising such as graphical, display ads and affiliate networking. "As people get more visibility in 2010, I think there's room for the stock to continue going up," he said. Google is expected to post $6.50 in fourth-quarter earnings per share, excluding special items, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. StarMine SmartEstimates said Google should earn $6.52 per share in the December quarter. MAGNIFYING EFFECT Google's decision to stop self-censoring its search results in China, and to potentially shut down operations in the country, is of little financial consequence in the short term. Analysts estimate annual revenue from China of $200 million to $600 million. But executives' comments on the potential to reach a compromise with Beijing, and their strategy for international expansion outside of China, will be closely watched by investors worried about longer-term growth prospects. On Monday, the company postponed the launch of two mobile phones in the country, manufactured by Motorola Inc and Samsung Electronics, in the first sign that its business there is starting to take a hit. While Google has been reluctant to share details about its operations outside its core Internet business, analysts and investors are expected to press for more information. The analysts will "have an opportunity to get some direct answers on these things at Google right now that are very topical," said portfolio manager Ryan Jacob of Jacob Internet Fund which owns Google stock. "They'll take advantage of it." More immediately, the fourth quarter may provide further signs of improvement in Google's cost per click -- the price advertisers pay Google when Web surfers click on an ad -- which could increase 4 percent year-over-year after losing ground for several quarters, according to a recent UBS note. While Google CEO Eric Schmidt has signaled that spending and hiring could soon increase, Jacob said the company would continue to manage costs judiciously, "magnifying" the effect of revenue growth. "Even a very modest exceeding of expectations on the top line could show a much larger increase in earnings," Jacob said. But investors will be most eager for insight into Google's expansion plans in China and in the mobile phone market. Google's plan to sell its new Nexus One smartphone directly to consumers isn't likely to juice the company's revenue in the near term, analyst said. But the costs associated with wading into the electronics retailing business, as well as the longer-term sales and mobile advertising potential, will have serious implications for Google's future performance. (Reporting by Alexei Oreskovic; Editing by Edwin Chan, Richard Chang and David Gregorio) Technology Media Add a Comment More from Reuters Goldman Sachs posts Q4 profit and cuts bonus pool NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc, which had been on track to pay employees a near-record amount, instead set aside nothing for compensation in the fourth quarter and gave $500 million to charity. Obama to outline new limits on bank risk-taking Supreme Court rejects corporate campaign spending limits Jobless claims rise on administrative issues Cadbury UK investors see Kraft deal despite Buffett John Edwards admits fathered mistress' child » More Top News Obama sets sights on bankers President Obama may shackle banks with Depression era-like curbs that could also help him tap into public rage over Wall Street excess. Full Article Commentary: A war on Wall Street? Obama attacks on banks fall flat Regulation So you want to be a hacker? They are cloaked by pseudonyms and multiple addresses, are often motivated by patriotism and many are trained in schools. Meet China's "red" hackers. Full Article Fears of a cyberwar from China Testing China's wired generation China © Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters Editorial Editions: Africa Arabic Argentina Brazil Canada China France Germany India Italy Japan Latin America Mexico Russia Spain United Kingdom United States Reuters Contact Us Advertise With Us Help Journalism Handbook Archive Site Index Video Index Analyst Research Mobile Newsletters RSS Podcasts Widgets Your View Labs Thomson Reuters Copyright Disclaimer Privacy Professional Products Professional Products Support Financial Products About Thomson Reuters Careers Online Products Acquisitions Monthly Buyouts.com Buyouts Europe: Buyouts Conferences: Venture Capital Journal ECVJ International Financing Review International Securitisation Report Project Finance International PEhub.com PE Week Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests. NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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